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A modified time series model using conditional and unconditional estimations with applications to a real dataset
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Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 12 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Education College Wasit University
The Role of Picture Books in Raising Children's Understanding of English Literature and Life Science Concepts: Selected Stories by Eric Carle
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Abstract The current study is a theoretical study that aims to underline the role of picture books as a serious genre of children's literature in raising children's understanding of English literature and life concepts; especially for non-English speakers. Unfortunately, most Iraqi people have developed a social phobia of learning English since childhood. This phobia is resulted from the heavy traditional reading and writing assignments as well as hard exams. Therefore, this study suggests incorporating more interesting literary material like picture books that would bring pleasure and help in raising children's love and cognition of English Language. More significantly, it calls to replace the old curriculum with a more vital one

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 30 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The use of green accounting information systems in the oil sector and its impact on reporting on sustainability - an applied study
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Abstract

                  The research seeks to shed light on green accounting information systems, analyze them, identify sustainability reporting and how to improve it, as well as study the importance of the Iraqi oil sector, analyze it, and work on applying green accounting information systems in order to improve the quality of sustainability reporting. Oil as a branch of the General Corporation for the Distribution of Oil and Gas Products to apply the practical aspect and prove the hypothesis of the research. Explaining the company's role in improving environmental conditions

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 01 2020
Journal Name
International Journal Of Pharmaceutical Research
Phytochemical investigation,anti-proliferative and antioxidant- activities of Iraqi Capparisspinosa L. (Family Capparidaceae) against MCF-7 human Breast cancer cell line
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Publication Date
Sat Aug 31 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Geological Journal
Microfacies Analysis and Evolution of Porosity of the Albian-Early Cenomanian Mauddud Formation from Selected Wells in Ratawi Oilfield, Southern Iraq
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Mauddud Formation (Albian stage-the Early Cretaceous) is an important oil reservoir in Ratawi field of southern Iraq. Four wells, R T-2, R T-3, R T-6, and R T-7, located 70 km northwest of Basra, were selected to study microfacies properties and petrophysical associations with the probability of oil production. Seventy-seven core samples are collected, and thin sections for petrographic analysis. The self-potential, Gamma-ray, resistivity, and porosity logs are used to determine the top and bottom of the Mauddud Formation. Water saturation of the invaded and uninvaded zones, shale volume, and porosity were calculated. The study area results showed that the quantity of shale is less than 15% for most of the wells, and the dominant po

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 19 2023
Journal Name
Nasaq Journal
The impact of the Roundhouse strategy on the achievement of the fifth grade secondary school in physics and their pivotal thinking
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The aim of the research is to study the effect of the roundhouse strategy on the achievement of fifth grade secondary school in physics and their pivotal thinking. The experiment has been applied for obtaining the data, which were processed statistically using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences, the results revealed that the students of the experimental group who studied using the roundhouse strategy was superior to the students of the control group who studied in the traditional method in the achievement exam. The results also show that there are statistically significant differences between the mean scores of the students of the experimental group and the control group in the pivotal thinking exam, in favor of the experimental gr

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2019
Journal Name
Meta Gene
Association of HLA-G + 3142G > C gene polymorphism and toll-like receptor-9 serum level in systemic lupus erythematosus patients
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Background: Human leukocyte antigen-G (HLA-G)and Toll-like receptor-9 (TLR-9)play a role in the regulation of autoimmune diseases and inflammatory processes. Aim of the study: To detect the HLA-G + 3142G > C gene polymorphism that associated with the susceptibility to SLE patients and associated with Hepatitis B infection and TLR-9 serum level. Patients and methods: This study was done on 75 SLE patients and 75 healthy control groups. Genotyping of HLA-G + 3142G > C were detected by PCR and PCR-RFLP methods. In addition to the estimation of Hepatitis B surface (HBs)antigen status by immunochromatography technique and TLR-9 serum level by ELISA technique. Results: The HLA-G + 3142G > C gene polymorphism between the SLE patients and controls

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2002
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Preparation of thin films of SiCN from gas-phase reaction induced by TEA-CO2 laser and study of their optical properties
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In this paper, silicon carbonitried thin films were prepared by the method of photolysis of the silane (SiH4) and ethylene (C2H4) gases, with and without ammonia gas (NH3), which is represented by the ratio between the (PNH3) and (PSiH4 + PC2H4 + PNH3), (which assign by the letter X), X has the values (0, 0.13, 0.33). This method carried out by using TEA-CO2 laser, on glass substrate at (375 oC), deposition rate (0.416-0.833) nm/pulse thin film thickness of (500-1000) nm. The optical properties of the films were studied by using Absorbance and Transmittance spectrums in wavelength range of (400-1100) nm, the results showed that the electronic transitions is indirect and the energy gap for the SiCN films increase with increasing of nitrog

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 10 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Influence of Teacher and Students Errors Correction Techniques on Students’ Achievement in English at College of Physical Education for Women
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The research is an attempt to investigate experimentally the influence of teacher’s errors correction and students’ errors correction on teaching English at the College of Physical Education for Women. Errors are seen as a natural way for developing any language but teachers are puzzled the way they can correct these errors. So, this research gives some idea of using two types of errors correction. The sample of the research is female students of the first year stage at the College of Physical Education for Women of the academic year 2009-2010. The whole population of the research is (94) students while the sample is (64). Thus, the sample represents 68% from the population of the research. The sample represents It is hypothesized th

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 01 2014
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Recording callitetrarhynchus gracilis (rudolphi, 1819) and callitetrarhynchus sp. (cestoda: trypanorhyncha) parasitic in tow carangid fishes in north west arab gulf, Iraq
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Recording two species of larval cestodes Callitetrarhynchus gracilis and Callitetrarhynchus sp. (Cestoda: Trypanorhyncha) parasitic in body cavity of two carangid fishes (Carangoides malabaricus and Megalaspis cordyla) from north west Arab Gulf, Iraq, is described. The species Callitetrarhynchus sp. was recorded for the first time in Iraq in carangid fishes. Also, two fish species (C. malabaricus and M. cordyla) are considered as new hosts for C. gracilis and Callitetrarhynchus sp. in the Arab Gulf. The cestodes were sent to Prof. Dr. Harry W. Palm, Department of Fisheries Biology, Institute Zoo Morphology, Germany for confirmation of the identification.

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 08 2021
Journal Name
International Journal Of Dental Hygiene
Oral health awareness, attitude towards dental treatment, fear of infection and economic impact during COVID‐19 pandemic in the Middle East
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Abstract<sec><title>Objectives

To assess the impact of COVID‐19 on oral hygiene (OH) awareness, attitude towards dental treatment, fear of infection and economic impact in the Middle East.

Methods

This survey was performed by online distribution of questionnaires in three countries in the Middle East (Jordan, Iraq and Egypt). The questionnaire consisted of five sections: the first section was aimed at collecting demographic data and the rest sections used to assess OH awareness, attitude towards dental treatment, degree of fear and economic impact of COVID‐19. The answers were either multiple choice, closed‐end (Yes or N

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