Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.
Asthma is a chronic inflammatory disease of airways mediated by T-helper 2 (Th2) cells involving complex signaling pathways. Although resveratrol has previously been shown to attenuate allergic asthma, the role of miRNA in this process has not been studied. We investigated the effect of resveratrol on ovalbumin-induced experimental allergic asthma in mice. To that end, BALB/c mice were immunized with ovalbumin (OVA) intraperitoneally followed by oral gavage of vehicle (OVA-veh) or resveratrol (100 mg/kg body) (OVA-res). On day 7, the experimental groups received intranasal challenge of OVA followed by 7 days of additional oral gavage of vehicle or resveratrol. At day 15, all mice were euthanized and bronchioalveolar fluid (BALF), se
... Show MoreThe research aims to diagnose the causes of the phenomenon of Marketing deception catalog, which is now deployed in the Iraqi market and related to producers and marketers, consumers, regulators and other institutions) and their impact in the areas of prejudice to the consumer protection (product and signifying specifications, price, advertising, packaging), as well as identify differences in the sample responses according to personal variables, it has been the adoption of the resolution as a tool to collect data and information through a sample survey of consumer opinions totaling 108 people in shopping centers in the province of Baghdad and in the Karkh and Rusafa, It was the use of methods selected statistical represented by the arith
... Show MoreThe science of jurisprudence is one of the legal sciences that scholars have been interested in since the first centuries of Islam, and they wrote many books about it, and the science of manuscripts is considered one of the scientific achievements in which many scholars emerged, including Imam Al-Samaani, so I chose this manuscript related to Istism to clarify its concept and meaning for all people, The student (Ali Ahmed Abdel-Aziz Sheikh Hamad) preceded me in the investigation of part of the book, and it was facilitated for me, by the grace of God Almighty, to investigate the issue (if one of the Muslim spouses apostatized and one of the infidel spouses converted to Islam until the end of the issue of if the two spouses were taken capt
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Background: Prophylaxis methods are used to mechanically remove plaque and stain from tooth surfaces; such methods give rise to loss of superficial structure and roughen the surface of composites as a result of their abrasive action. This study was done to assess the effect of three polishing systems on surface texture of new anterior composites after storage in artificial saliva. Materials and methods: A total of 40 Giomer and Tetric®N-Ceram composite discs of 12 mm internal diameter and 3mm height were prepared using a specially designed cylindrical mold and were stored in artificial saliva for one month and then samples were divided into four groups according to surface treatment: Group A (control group):10 specimens received no surfa
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