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A modified time series model using conditional and unconditional estimations with applications to a real dataset
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Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2024
Journal Name
Heliyon
Removal of amoxicillin from contaminated water using modified bentonite as a reactive material
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This study concerns the removal of a trihydrate antibiotic (Amoxicillin) from synthetically contaminated water by adsorption on modified bentonite. The bentonite was modified using hexadecyl trimethyl ammonium bromide (HTAB), which turned it from a hydrophilic to a hydrophobic material. The effects of different parameters were studied in batch experiments. These parameters were contact time, solution pH, agitation speed, initial concentration (C0) of the contaminant, and adsorbent dosage. Maximum removal of amoxicillin (93 %) was achieved at contact time = 240 min, pH = 10, agitation speed = 200 rpm, initial concentration = 30 ppm, and adsorbent dosage = 3 g bentonite per 1L of pollutant solution. The characterization of the adsorbent, modi

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 28 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Comparative Study on Association Rule Mining Algorithms on the Hospital Infection Control Dataset
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Administrative procedures in various organizations produce numerous crucial records and data. These
records and data are also used in other processes like customer relationship management and accounting
operations.It is incredibly challenging to use and extract valuable and meaningful information from these data
and records because they are frequently enormous and continuously growing in size and complexity.Data
mining is the act of sorting through large data sets to find patterns and relationships that might aid in the data
analysis process of resolving business issues. Using data mining techniques, enterprises can forecast future
trends and make better business decisions.The Apriori algorithm has bee

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 01 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Information & Communications Technology
Evaluation of DDoS attacks Detection in a New Intrusion Dataset Based on Classification Algorithms
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Intrusion detection system is an imperative role in increasing security and decreasing the harm of the computer security system and information system when using of network. It observes different events in a network or system to decide occurring an intrusion or not and it is used to make strategic decision, security purposes and analyzing directions. This paper describes host based intrusion detection system architecture for DDoS attack, which intelligently detects the intrusion periodically and dynamically by evaluating the intruder group respective to the present node with its neighbors. We analyze a dependable dataset named CICIDS 2017 that contains benign and DDoS attack network flows, which meets certifiable criteria and is ope

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Publication Date
Sun Aug 02 2026
Journal Name
Polymer-plastics Technology And Materials
Conducting Polymers: Materials, Mechanisms, and Applications – a Review
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The 2000 Nobel Prize in Chemistry was awarded to Alan J. Heeger, Alan G. MacDiarmid, and Hideki Shirakawa for the discovery and development of conductive polymers, particularly polyacetylene. Since then, research on conducting polymers has progressed rapidly, with sustained focus on their morphology, structural design, and technological applications. This paper presents a comprehensive review of conducting polymers, focusing on their structure, synthesis, and applications in electrical, optical, and energy-conversion technologies. Prominent systems – including polyaniline, polypyrrole, polythiophene, polyacetylene, poly(p-phenylene vinylene) (PPV), poly(p-phenylene) (PPP), and poly(3,4-ethylenedioxythiophene) (PEDOT) – are discussed wit

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 18 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Mechanics Of Continua And Mathematical Sciences
THE COMPARISON OF THE METHODS ESTIMATING THE FRACTIONAL DIFFERENCES OF PARAMETER AND ITS DEPENDENCE ON ESTIMATION THE BEST LINEAR MODEL OF TIME SERIES IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL FIELD
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Publication Date
Sat Oct 16 2021
Journal Name
Energies
Performance Analysis of a Solar Cooling System with Equal and Unequal Adsorption/Desorption Operating Time
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In solar-thermal adsorption/desorption processes, it is not always possible to preserve equal operating times for the adsorption/desorption modes due to the fluctuating supply nature of the source which largely affects the system’s operating conditions. This paper seeks to examine the impact of adopting unequal adsorption/desorption times on the entire cooling performance of solar adsorption systems. A cooling system with silica gel–water as adsorbent-adsorbate pair has been built and tested under the climatic condition of Iraq. A mathematical model has been established to predict the system performance, and the results are successfully validated via the experimental findings. The results show that, the system can be operational

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2011
Journal Name
International Journal Of Data Analysis Techniques And Strategies
A class of efficient and modified testimators for the mean of normal distribution using complete data
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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
Ieee Xplore
A Hybrid Modified Lightweight Algorithm Combined of Two Cryptography Algorithms PRESENT and Salsa20 Using Chaotic System
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Cryptography algorithms play a critical role in information technology against various attacks witnessed in the digital era. Many studies and algorithms are done to achieve security issues for information systems. The high complexity of computational operations characterizes the traditional cryptography algorithms. On the other hand, lightweight algorithms are the way to solve most of the security issues that encounter applying traditional cryptography in constrained devices. However, a symmetric cipher is widely applied for ensuring the security of data communication in constraint devices. In this study, we proposed a hybrid algorithm based on two cryptography algorithms PRESENT and Salsa20. Also, a 2D logistic map of a chaotic system is a

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 30 2026
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Employment of Body Language in Television Advertising An Analytical Study of Al-Hayat TV Commercials (The Egyptian Series as a Model)
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Whatever the designers of the advertisement in choosing the text and spoken phrases, those phrases cannot give or convey the full meaning to the recipient only if this spoken and written language is reinforced with another language based on the signals, movements, and symbols that are displayed using the body or other artistic elements of the advertisement such as pictures, colors, music, effects, and other elements used in the artistic construction of television advertising. All these artistic elements contribute to the completion of the advertising idea and make it ready to be displayed to the public.

Scientists and researchers, in the field of psychology, have relied a lot on this language (body language). And some of them put

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 05 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Al-qadisiyah For Computer Science And Mathematics
Strongly (E,F)-convexity with applications to optimization problems
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In this paper, a new class of nonconvex sets and functions called strongly -convex sets and strongly -convex functions are introduced. This class is considered as a natural extension of strongly -convex sets and functions introduced in the literature. Some basic and differentiability properties related to strongly -convex functions are discussed. As an application to optimization problems, some optimality properties of constrained optimization problems are proved. In these optimization problems, either the objective function or the inequality constraints functions are strongly -convex. 

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