Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.
The aim of this research is to construct a three-dimensional maritime transport model to transport nonhomogeneous goods (k) and different transport modes (v) from their sources (i) to their destinations (j), while limiting the optimum quantities v ijk x to be transported at the lowest possible cost v ijk c and time v ijk t using the heuristic algorithm, Transport problems have been widely studied in computer science and process research and are one of the main problems of transport problems that are usually used to reduce the cost or times of transport of goods with a number of sources and a number of destinations and by means of transport to meet the conditions of supply and demand. Transport models are a key tool in logistics an
... Show MoreRecently, Malaysia has been recognized as one of the most popular destinations for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Southeast Asia. But how do these FDI inflows affect Malaysia economy? This paper aims to identify the role of FDI inflows in Malaysia economic growth through a proposed endogenous growth model. Annual data covers from 1975 to 2010. Unit root test and Johansen Co-integration test are adopted to respectively verify the time series data is stable and the linear combination of the variables is stationary. Hierarchical Multiple Regressions (HMR) Analysis is then conducted to find out the momentum of the Malaysia economic growth including FDI inflows. The results show that the FDI inflows together with the human capital deve
... Show MoreThis paper presents a new design of a nonlinear multi-input multi-output PID neural controller of the active brake steering force and the active front steering angle for a 2-DOF vehicle model based on modified Elman recurrent neural. The goal of this work is to achieve the stability and to improve the vehicle dynamic’s performance through achieving the desired yaw rate and reducing the lateral velocity of the vehicle in a minimum time period for preventing the vehicle from slipping out the road curvature by using two active control actions: the front steering angle and the brake steering force. Bacterial forging optimization algorithm is used to adjust the parameters weights of the proposed controller. Simulation resul
... Show MoreData scarcity is a major challenge when training deep learning (DL) models. DL demands a large amount of data to achieve exceptional performance. Unfortunately, many applications have small or inadequate data to train DL frameworks. Usually, manual labeling is needed to provide labeled data, which typically involves human annotators with a vast background of knowledge. This annotation process is costly, time-consuming, and error-prone. Usually, every DL framework is fed by a significant amount of labeled data to automatically learn representations. Ultimately, a larger amount of data would generate a better DL model and its performance is also application dependent. This issue is the main barrier for
The Mannich reaction is one of the most important types of organic chemistry fundamental reactions. It is a crucial stage in the production of various medicines, natural goods, and industrial chemicals. Chemists' imaginations have always been piqued because of this. In general, the Mannich reactions can be used as part of a tandem reaction sequence to produce complex target molecules in an elegant and often easy manner. The following article examines and summarizes methods for synthesizing Mannich derivatives, in addition to offering a survey of recent advancements in several fields’ applications of the Mannich reaction, such as biological applications, antimicrobial activity, anticancer activity, anti-inflammation and
... Show MoreThe aim of this study to identify patterns of cerebral control (right and left) for second grade students in the collage of physical education and sports science of the University of Baghdad, as well as identify the definition of theThe Effect of Using the Bybee Strategy(5ES) according to Brain Control Patterns in Learning a Kinetic Series on Floor exercises in Artistic Gymnastics for menمجلة الرياضة المعاصرةالمجلد 19 العدد 1 عام 2020effect using the (Bybee) strategy (5ES) according to brain control patterns inlearning a Kinetic series on floor exercises In artistic gymnastics for men, andidentify the best combination between the four research groups learn, use Finderexperimental method research sample consi
... Show MoreIn this paper, an analytical solution describing the deflection of a cracked beam repaired with piezoelectric patch is introduced. The solution is derived using perturbation method. A novel analytical model to calculate the proper dimensions of piezoelectric patches used to repair cracked beams is also introduced. This model shows that the thickness of the piezoelectric patch depends mainly on the thickness of the cracked beam, the electro-mechanical properties of the patch material, the applied load and the crack location. Furthermore, the model shows that the length of the piezoelectric patches depends on the thickness of the patch as well as it depends on the length of the cracked beam and the crack depth. The additional flexibil
... Show MoreIn this paper, an analytical solution describing the deflection of a cracked beam repaired with piezoelectric patch is introduced. The solution is derived using perturbation method. A novel analytical model to calculate the proper dimensions of piezoelectric patches used to repair cracked beams is also introduced. This model shows that the thickness of the piezoelectric patch depends mainly on the thickness of the cracked beam, the electro-mechanical properties of the patch material, the applied load and the crack location. Furthermore, the model shows that the length of the piezoelectric patches depends on the thickness of the patch as well as it depends on the length of the cracked beam and the crack depth. The additio
... Show MoreObjectives: This study aims to assess and compare the micro-shear bond strength (μSBS) of a novel resin-modified glass-ionomer luting cement functionalized with a methacrylate co-monomer containing a phosphoric acid group, 30 wt% 2-(methacryloxy) ethyl phosphate (2-MEP), with different substrates (dentin, enamel, zirconia, and base metal alloy). This assessment is conducted in comparison with conventional resin-modified glass ionomer cement and self-adhesive resin cement. Materials and methods: In this in vitro study, ninety-six specimens were prepared and categorized into four groups: enamel (A), dentin (B), zirconia (C), and base metal alloys (D). Enamel (E) and dentin (D) specimens were obtained from 30 human maxillary first premolars e
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