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A modified time series model using conditional and unconditional estimations with applications to a real dataset
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Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 01 2022
Journal Name
Indonesian Journal Of Electrical Engineering And Computer Science
Photovoltaic system DC series arc fault: a case study
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<p>Photovoltaic (PV) systems are becoming increasingly popular; however, arc faults on the direct current (DC) side are becoming more widespread as a result of the effects of aging as well as the trend toward higher DC voltage levels, posing severe risk to human safety and system stability. The parallel arc faults present higher level of current as compared with the series arc faults, making it more difficult to spot the series arc. In this paper and for the aim of condition monitoring, the features of a DC series arc fault are analyzed by analysing the arc features, performing model’s simulation in PSCAD, and carrying out experimental studies. Various arc models are simulated and investigated; for low current arcs, the heur

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 17 2026
Journal Name
Pharmacia
Therapeutic drug monitoring for optimizing ustekinumab therapy in Iraqi patients with psoriasis: A real-world study
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Psoriasis is a complex autoimmune disorder characterized by skin inflammation with keratinocyte proliferation, and 85% of cases present as plaque-type psoriasis. Biologics such as ustekinumab (UST) are highly successful therapies for psoriasis. To achieve maximum clinical efficacy while minimizing undesirable effects, therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) for biologics has emerged. This study aims to measure the UST trough level (TL) and anti-drug antibodies (ADAs) and to evaluate clinical response in Iraqi patients with moderate-to-severe psoriasis in order to make appropriate recommendations for modifying therapy. This cross-sectional study enrolled 75 patients, divided into two groups: Group 1, patients who achieved the UST target TL (≥0.6

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 29 2026
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Foreign Series in the Kurdish Satellite Channels and Their Role in the Development of Awareness among Young People in the Kurdistan Region (Korean Series as a Model) (A Field Study on a Sample of Students of the Institute of Fine Arts in the City of Sulay
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The dubbing process for the Foreign Dramas by the Kurdish language became a serious phenomenon in the Kurdish satellite TV, especially in the past few years. It attracted a wide audience, especially young adolescents. And prepared by some breakthrough hostile to Kurdish culture and value coordinated by others remedy for the structural gaps and lapses have, as a result of climate which is brought into existence globalization and secretions variety dimensional, saturated value and cognitive effects bearing a strong identity of its elements. From here, the problem of this research is the ambiguity of their role in a series of developmental processes Kurdish awareness of young people and the extent of the impact that caused it.

This

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Use Simulation To Differentiate Between Some Modern Methods To the Model GM(1,1) To Find Missing Values And Estimate Parameters With A Practical Application
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Abstract

       The grey system model GM(1,1) is the model of the prediction of the time series and the basis of the grey theory. This research presents the methods for estimating parameters of the grey model GM(1,1) is the accumulative method (ACC), the exponential method (EXP), modified exponential method (Mod EXP) and the Particle Swarm Optimization method (PSO). These methods were compared based on the Mean square error (MSE) and the Mean Absolute percentage error (MAPE) as a basis comparator and the simulation method was adopted for the best of the four methods, The best method was obtained and then applied to real data. This data represents the consumption rate of two types of oils a he

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 01 2026
Journal Name
Journal Of Optics
Fabrication and assessment of modified fiber Bragg grating for aquatic sensing applications
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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Pakistan Association Of Dermatologists
Diverse cutaneous manifestations of pyoderma gangrenosum with triple therapeutic trial in a series of 53 cases
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Publication Date
Sun Jun 23 2019
Journal Name
American Rock Mechanics Association
Using an Analytical Model to Predict Collapse Volume During Drilling: A Case Study from Southern Iraq
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Zubair Formation is one of the richest petroleum systems in Southern Iraq. This formation is composed mainly of sandstones interbedded with shale sequences, with minor streaks of limestone and siltstone. Borehole collapse is one of the most critical challenges that continuously appear in drilling and production operations. Problems associated with borehole collapse, such as tight hole while tripping, stuck pipe and logging tools, hole enlargement, poor log quality, and poor primary cement jobs, are the cause of the majority of the nonproductive time (NPT) in the Zubair reservoir developments. Several studies released models predicting the onset of borehole collapse and the amount of enlargement of the wellbore cross-section. However, assump

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2019
Journal Name
The 53rd U.s. Rock Mechanics/geomechanics Symposium
Using an analytical model to predict collapse volume during drilling: A case study from southern Iraq
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Publication Date
Fri Mar 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Stability testing of time series data for CT Large industrial establishments in Iraq
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Abstract: -
The concept of joint integration of important concepts in macroeconomic application, the idea of ​​cointegration is due to the Granger (1981), and he explained it in detail in Granger and Engle in Econometrica (1987). The introduction of the joint analysis of integration in econometrics in the mid-eighties of the last century, is one of the most important developments in the experimental method for modeling, and the advantage is simply the account and use it only needs to familiarize them selves with ordinary least squares.

Cointegration seen relations equilibrium time series in the long run, even if it contained all the sequences on t

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Publication Date
Fri May 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
A Real-Coded Genetic Algorithm with System Reduction and Restoration for Rapid and Reliable Power Flow Solution of Power Systems
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The paper presents a highly accurate power flow solution, reducing the possibility of ending at local minima, by using Real-Coded Genetic Algorithm (RCGA) with system reduction and restoration. The proposed method (RCGA) is modified to reduce the total computing time by reducing the system in size to that of the generator buses, which, for any realistic system, will be smaller in number, and the load buses are eliminated. Then solving the power flow problem for the generator buses only by real-coded GA to calculate the voltage phase angles, whereas the voltage magnitudes are specified resulted in reduced computation time for the solution. Then the system is restored by calculating the voltages of the load buses in terms

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