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A modified time series model using conditional and unconditional estimations with applications to a real dataset
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Modern statistical techniques offer a range of methodologies for modelling time series data, with conditional and unconditional approaches providing complementary insights that enhance overall model accuracy. This article introduced a modified ARIMA model employing conditional and unconditional parameter estimates. The methodology for the new model based on novel methods is provided. The prediction process, one and two steps ahead, is covered in detail, and a novel algorithm is presented. The best model is picked based on various measurement criteria, such as coefficient of determination (R2), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean absolute scaled error (MASE). The suggested model is applied to a monthly petrol sales dataset (Jan 2014 to Dec 2023), where the real data in this article was taken from the U.S. Census. Eventually, the predicted petrol sales in the U.S. over the following four years are offered. As showed in the results the modified model fits the data better and improves forecast accuracy as measured by R2, RMSE, and MASE. The enhanced performance demonstrates the effectiveness of the modified time series model, and it provides a valuable tool for practitioners and opens avenues for further research in advanced forecasting methodologies. All calculations and visualizations presented in this article were conducted using version 4.3.2 of the R programming language.

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 01 2015
Journal Name
Energy Sources, Part A: Recovery, Utilization, And Environmental Effects
Ultra Deep Hydrotreatment of Iraqi Vacuum Gas Oil Using a Modified Catalyst
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A set of hydro treating experiments are carried out on vacuum gas oil in a trickle bed reactor to study the hydrodesulfurization and hydrodenitrogenation based on two model compounds, carbazole (non-basic nitrogen compound) and acridine (basic nitrogen compound), which are added at 0–200 ppm to the tested oil, and dibenzotiophene is used as a sulfur model compound at 3,000 ppm over commercial CoMo/ Al2O3 and prepared PtMo/Al2O3. The impregnation method is used to prepare (0.5% Pt) PtMo/Al2O3. The basic sites are found to be very small, and the two catalysts exhibit good metal support interaction. In the absence of nitrogen compounds over the tested catalysts in the trickle bed reactor at temperatures of 523 to 573 K, liquid hourly space v

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 15 2021
Journal Name
Al-academy
The aesthetic work of theatrical rehearsal and its directing applications "Taqasim on Al-Hayat Play as a model"
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This research reviews the aesthetic variables that were founded according to (theatrical rehearsal) as one of the most important pillars on which the theatrical process is based, because of its necessity in developing theatrical art on several levels that helped the theatrical director in organizing his work, and this became clear through the research chapters represented in the first chapter (methodological framework) and the second chapter, which consisted of the first topic (the duality of watching / rehearsal) and the second topic (the applications of theatrical rehearsal in theatrical experiences), all the way to the third chapter (research procedures), which included the analysis of theatrical rehearsals (sharing on life), and the

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 22 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Rapid Direct Detection and Differentiation of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex in Sputum by Real-Time PCR
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Tuberculosis status as the second leading causes of significant morbidity and mortality from an infectious disease worldwide, after human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Sample collection was conducted at the Institute of Chest and Respiratory Diseases/Baghdad Medical City in Baghdad. The collection interval was from August to October 2014, 629 suspected TB patients were examined during this period. The results revealed among total 629 specimens, 56 (8.9%) of the specimens were positive by direct examination and 573 (91.1%) negative specimens by smear microscopy. Fifty six DNA samples were extracted from positive ZN smears of sputum specimens and 40 samples from healthy persons (as control) were subjected to molecular diagnosis by real tim

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 07 2021
Design and numerical verification of a polarization-independent grating coupler using a double-layer approach for visible wavelengths applications
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Publication Date
Sun Mar 15 2026
Journal Name
Alustath Journal For Human And Social Sciences
Translation Assessment of the Conditional Sentences in “The Dream of a Ridiculous Man” Story by Dostoevsky
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Publication Date
Mon Oct 02 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Controlling the Unbalanced Voltages of a Series-Connected Lead-Acid Batteries in a PV Power Storage System using Dynamic Capacitor Technique
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Lead-acid batteries have been used increasingly in recent years in solar power systems, especially in homes and small businesses, due to their cheapness and advanced development in manufacturing them. However, these batteries have low voltages and low capacities, to increase voltage and capacities, they need to be connected in series and parallel. Whether they are connected in series or parallel, their voltages and capacities must be equal otherwise the quality of service will be degraded. The fact that these different voltages are inherent in their manufacturing, but these unbalanced voltages can be controlled. Using a switched capacitor is a method that was used in many methods for balancing voltages, but their respons

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Publication Date
Fri Aug 05 2016
Journal Name
International Journal Of Advances In Scientific Research And Engineering
Image Encryption Using Modified AES with Bio-Chaotic
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Due to the vast using of digital images and the fast evolution in computer science and especially the using of images in the social network.This lead to focus on securing these images and protect it against attackers, many techniques are proposed to achieve this goal. In this paper we proposed a new chaotic method to enhance AES (Advanced Encryption Standards) by eliminating Mix-Columns transformation to reduce time consuming and using palmprint biometric and Lorenz chaotic system to enhance authentication and security of the image, by using chaotic system that adds more sensitivity to the encryption system and authentication for the system.

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 01 2022
Journal Name
Indonesian Journal Of Electrical Engineering And Computer Science
Photovoltaic system DC series arc fault: a case study
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<p>Photovoltaic (PV) systems are becoming increasingly popular; however, arc faults on the direct current (DC) side are becoming more widespread as a result of the effects of aging as well as the trend toward higher DC voltage levels, posing severe risk to human safety and system stability. The parallel arc faults present higher level of current as compared with the series arc faults, making it more difficult to spot the series arc. In this paper and for the aim of condition monitoring, the features of a DC series arc fault are analyzed by analysing the arc features, performing model’s simulation in PSCAD, and carrying out experimental studies. Various arc models are simulated and investigated; for low current arcs, the heur

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 17 2026
Journal Name
Pharmacia
Therapeutic drug monitoring for optimizing ustekinumab therapy in Iraqi patients with psoriasis: A real-world study
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Psoriasis is a complex autoimmune disorder characterized by skin inflammation with keratinocyte proliferation, and 85% of cases present as plaque-type psoriasis. Biologics such as ustekinumab (UST) are highly successful therapies for psoriasis. To achieve maximum clinical efficacy while minimizing undesirable effects, therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) for biologics has emerged. This study aims to measure the UST trough level (TL) and anti-drug antibodies (ADAs) and to evaluate clinical response in Iraqi patients with moderate-to-severe psoriasis in order to make appropriate recommendations for modifying therapy. This cross-sectional study enrolled 75 patients, divided into two groups: Group 1, patients who achieved the UST target TL (≥0.6

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Use Simulation To Differentiate Between Some Modern Methods To the Model GM(1,1) To Find Missing Values And Estimate Parameters With A Practical Application
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Abstract

       The grey system model GM(1,1) is the model of the prediction of the time series and the basis of the grey theory. This research presents the methods for estimating parameters of the grey model GM(1,1) is the accumulative method (ACC), the exponential method (EXP), modified exponential method (Mod EXP) and the Particle Swarm Optimization method (PSO). These methods were compared based on the Mean square error (MSE) and the Mean Absolute percentage error (MAPE) as a basis comparator and the simulation method was adopted for the best of the four methods, The best method was obtained and then applied to real data. This data represents the consumption rate of two types of oils a he

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