Abstract

In this research we study the wavelet characteristics for the important time series known as Sunspot, on the aim of verifying the periodogram that other researchers had reached by the spectral transform, and noticing the variation in the period length on one side and the shifting on another.

A continuous wavelet analysis is done for this series and the periodogram in it is marked primarily. for more accuracy, the series is partitioned to its the approximate and the details components to five levels, filtering these components by using fixed threshold on one time and independent threshold on another, finding the noise series which represents the difference between

There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we st

The analysis of time series considers one of the mathematical and statistical methods in explanation of the nature phenomena and its manner in a specific time period.

Because the studying of time series can get by building, analysis the models and then forecasting gives the priority for the practicing in different fields, therefore the identification and selection of the model is of great importance in spite of its difficulties.

The selection of a standard methods has the ability for estimation the errors in the estimated the parameters for the model, and there will be a balance between the suitability and the simplicity of the model.

In the analysis of d

Abstract: -
The concept of joint integration of important concepts in macroeconomic application, the idea of ​​cointegration is due to the Granger (1981), and he explained it in detail in Granger and Engle in Econometrica (1987). The introduction of the joint analysis of integration in econometrics in the mid-eighties of the last century, is one of the most important developments in the experimental method for modeling, and the advantage is simply the account and use it only needs to familiarize them selves with ordinary least squares.

Cointegration seen relations equilibrium time series in the long run, even if it contained all the sequences on t

Due to the lack of statistical researches in studying with existing (p) of Exogenous Input variables, and there contributed in time series phenomenon as a cause, yielding (q) of Output variables as a result in time series field, to form conceptual idea similar to the Classical Linear Regression that studies the relationship between dependent variable with explanatory variables. So highlight the importance of providing such research to a full analysis of this kind of phenomena important in consumer price inflation in Iraq. Were taken several variables influence and with a direct connection to the phenomenon and analyzed after treating the problem of outliers existence in the observations by (EM) approach, and expand the sample size (n=36) to

The topic area of that’s research dealing with values which adopted by Iraqi people since 1980, many changes and variables which make many situations and skills which the life is suitable in war and conflicts times. That’s values like traditional and ordering, traditionalism mean the conservation about values s and tradition which society adopted its. The Iraqi society suffering from many changes since 1980-2003, the consequently of that’s changes make Iraqi citizen more interested about luxury needs like clothes, while decreasing the interested about liberty of thought, beauty, show evidence of identity, and openness of mind. The processing of values changes associated with political behavior of Iraqi people which lead to weaken o

One of the most critical functions of the government is the devising and planning for the Public Budget for the coming years. Studying any budget of any given state would directly reflect on its intentions and collective direction during a certain time span. Since all allocations represent the government's agenda and time plan for coming years. And the size of each allocation would measure the priority of each budgetary item. Because of the eminent importance of the public budget planning in Iraq, a country of abundant riches and human resources that flow in the national economy, we present this research that would cover the resources versus expenditures of Iraq's public budget endured by the government to sustain its various sec

Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous varia

      The method of coordinate conversion is still considered important and laborious due to the shift from the spatial ellipsoidal (geographic) to the flat planned system. The most common method uses a contiguous UTM system as one of the most reliable systems in the conversion process; however, this system faces a problem in large areas that contain more than one zone. The goal of this research is to create a simple and low computational cost model to represent a non-contiguous semi-UTM geographic coordinates for confined regions of the globe. The considered region taken in this study is the northern parts of Arabian Gulf (including parts of Iraq, Kuwait, Iran, and Saudi Arabia). The determined mathematical mode

    In this paper we introduce a brief review about Box-Jenkins models. The acronym ARIMA stands for “autoregressive integrated moving average”. It is a good method to forecast for stationary and non stationary time series. According to the data which obtained from Baghdad Water Authority, we are modelling two series, the first one about pure water consumption and the second about the number of participants. Then we determine an optimal model by depending on choosing minimum MSE as criterion.