There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we study the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) for forecasting oil prices. Results show that the price of oil will increase to 156.2$ by 2035.
An α-fractional integral and derivative of real function have been introduced in new definitions and then, they compared with the existing definitions. According to the properties of these definitions, the formulas demonstrate that they are most significant and suitable in fractional integrals and derivatives. The definitions of α-fractional derivative and integral coincide with the existing definitions for the polynomials for 0 ≤ α < 1. Furthermore, if α = 1, the proposed definitions and the usual definition of integer derivative and integral are identical. Some of the properties of the new definitions are discussed and proved, as well, we have introduced some applications in the α- fractional derivatives and integral
... Show MoreThis paper is devoted to compare the performance of non-Bayesian estimators represented by the Maximum likelihood estimator of the scale parameter and reliability function of inverse Rayleigh distribution with Bayesian estimators obtained under two types of loss function specifically; the linear, exponential (LINEX) loss function and Entropy loss function, taking into consideration the informative and non-informative priors. The performance of such estimators assessed on the basis of mean square error (MSE) criterion. The Monte Carlo simulation experiments are conducted in order to obtain the required results.
ZSM-5 zeolite was synthesis under hydrothermal conditions at 175oC. The synthesis parameters have been investigated to find optimum synthesis method. Firstly, the crystallization time has been investigated to find the optimum crystallization time. Also, the ageing time was studied. The morphology, structure, and composition of the synthesized ZSM-5 zeolite were characterized using scanning electron microscopy (SEM), pH meter, viscometer, and X-ray powder diffraction (XRD). The bulk Si/Al ratio of ZSM-5 zeolite was in the range of 9.5—11.7. The synthesized ZSM-5 zeolite with appropriate ageing time could adjust crystal size and degree of the crystallinity. The crystal size of ZSM-5 zeolite obtained at an agei
... Show MoreNanofluids (dispersion of nanoparticles in a base fluid) have been suggested as promising agents in subsurface industries including enhanced oil recovery. Nanoparticles can easily pass through small pore throats in reservoirs formations; however, physicochemical interactions between nanoparticles and between nanoparticles and rocks can cause a significant retention of nanoparticles. This study investigated the transport, attach, and retention of silica nanoparticles in core plugs. The hydrophilic silica nanoparticles were injected into limestone core as nanofluid of different nanoparticles size (5 nm, and 20 nm), concentration (0.005 – 0.1 wt% SiO2), and base fluid salinity (0 – 3 wt% NaCl) at different temperatures (23, and 50 °C). D
... Show MoreTime represented a significant element in building any film story, despite its inability to express itself, but by employing the rest of the elements of the cinematic mediator language to express it. Time factor is present and manifested in all the details of the picture, and the more important is its presence in the event narration process. The narration totally depends on temporal structure in which it appears, which makes time a dominating element in the development of the narrative shapes and patterns. The narrative propositions have come to take new workings that time streams appeared that manipulate the time structure, reversing it, stopping it or making it fluctuate between the three levels of time, or repeating it or make
... Show MoreAs Alkaloids known for their pharmaceutical importance; this research included the extraction of crude alkaloids of three plants (Zingiber officinale Roscoe., Thymus vulgaris L. and Acacia arabica L.) and evaluate their activity as coagulant agent by using three degraded concentrations of each plant extract and tested them on lab mice through the observation of the variations in bleeding time (BT), clotting time (CT) and platelet count. The results revealed differences in the percentage of alkaloids in the plants under the study; Z. officinale extract was the higher one followed by T. vulgaris and A. arabica respectively. Z. officinale extract was also the most effective plant as coagulant factor than other two plants as it decreased bot
... Show MoreThis study includes the preparation of the ferrite nano ferrite CuxAl0.3-XNi0.7Fe2O4 (where: x = 0, 0.05, 0.1, 0.15, 0.2, 0.25, 0.3) M using the auto combustion method (sol-gel), and citric acid was used as fuel for auto combustion. The ferrite samples were checked by X-ray diffraction (XRD), Field Emission Scanning Electron Microscopes (FE-SEM), and energy dispersive X-ray analyzer (EDX). They showed that the prepared compound has a face-centered cubic structure (FCC). The lattice constant increases with an increase in the percentage of doping of the copper ions, and a decrease for the aluminum ion and that the compound is porous and its grains are spherical, and there are no other
... Show MoreAbstract
The aim of this work is to create a power control system for wind turbines based on fuzzy logic. Three power control loop was considered including: changing the pitch angle of the blade, changing the length of the blade and turning the nacelle. The stochastic law was given for changes and instant inaccurate assessment of wind conditions changes. Two different algorithms were used for fuzzy inference in the control loop, the Mamdani and Larsen algorithms. These two different algorithms are materialized and developed in this study in Matlab-Fuzzy logic toolbox which has been practically implemented using necessary intelligent control system in electrical engineerin
... Show MoreLogic is understood so far as a product perspective, either formal or informal. The topic is still, though interesting, imprecise, sketchy and problematic. Besides, the relevance of logic to linguistics has not been explained. This research focuses on dealing with logic as a product and a process. It introduces how logic is relevant to understanding language. Logic is surely not irrelevant to real human language. In this research, we coin 'logical pragmatics' to refer to "the structure of an argumentation and its parts used by the speaker for the purpose of persuasion to have an effect in the addressee and passive audience”. As such, the research mainly aims at providing a definition of "logical pragmatics" as well as developing an ide
... Show MoreIn this paper, Bayes estimators for the shape and scale parameters of Gamma distribution under the Entropy loss function have been obtained, assuming Gamma and Exponential priors for the shape and scale parameters respectively. Moment, Maximum likelihood estimators and Lindley’s approximation have been used effectively in Bayesian estimation. Based on Monte Carlo simulation method, those estimators are compared depending on the mean squared errors (MSE’s). The results show that, the performance of the Bayes estimator under Entropy loss function is better than other estimates in all cases.