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jih-2631
Bayesian Structural Time Series for Forecasting Oil Prices
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There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we study the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) for forecasting oil prices. Results show that the price of oil will increase to 156.2$ by 2035.

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Using Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System to Predict Rate of Penetration from Dynamic Elastic Properties
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Rate of penetration plays a vital role in field development process because the drilling operation is expensive and include the cost of equipment and materials used during the penetration of rock and efforts of the crew in order to complete the well without major problems. It’s important to finish the well as soon as possible to reduce the expenditures. So, knowing the rate of penetration in the area that is going to be drilled will help in speculation of the cost and that will lead to optimize drilling outgoings. In this research, an intelligent model was built using artificial intelligence to achieve this goal.  The model was built using adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system to predict the rate of penetration in

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Publication Date
Tue May 30 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Evaluation of Rosmarinus officinalis Leaves Essential Oils Activity Against Vancomycin Intermediate Staphylococcus aureus (VISA) Isolated from Baghdad Hospital Patients
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      Rosemary is a well-known aromatic and medicinal plant used to treat various ailments. This study evaluated Rosmarinus officinalis essential oil for its phytochemical and antibacterial properties. The essential oil was analysed by using a gas chromatography-mass Spectrometry (GC-MS) that revealed the common chemicals containing verbenone 36.20% and 1,8-cineol (Eucalyptol) 12.14%. Extracted essential oils were tested for antibacterial activity against vancomycin intermediate Staphylococcus aureus (VISA), a strain of bacteria obtained locally from bacteremia patients. Three isolates were found to be VISA positive using the E-test (strips) and the population analysis profile method (PAP). VISA showed lower resist

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using a hybrid SARIMA-NARNN Model to Forecast the Numbers of Infected with (COVID-19) in Iraq
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Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 02 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Languages (jcl)
The Role Of Historical Memory In Promoting The Concept Of Belonging To The Homeland In A Novel "Mazurka For Two Dead Men" Of The Spanish Novelist Camilo Jose Cela: El Papel De La Memoria Histórica En El Apoyo Del Concepto De Pertenencia A La Patria , En La Novela “Mazurca Para Dos Muertos”, De Camilo José Cela
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       The present study discusses the significant role of the historical memory in all the Spanish society aspects of life. When a novelist takes the role and puts on the mask of one of the novel’s protagonists or hidden characters, his memory of the events becomes the keywords of accessing the close-knit fabric of society and sheds lights on deteriorating social conceptions in  a backwards social reality that rejects all new progressive ideas and  modernity. Through concentrating on the society flawing aspects and employing everything of his stored memory, the author uses sarcasm to criticize and change such old deteriorating reality conceptions.   

   &nbs

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 02 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Using Sensitivity Analysis in Linear Programming with Practical Physical Applications
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Linear programming currently occupies a prominent position in various fields and has wide applications, as its importance lies in being a means of studying the behavior of a large number of systems as well. It is also the simplest and easiest type of models that can be created to address industrial, commercial, military and other dilemmas. Through which to obtain the optimal quantitative value. In this research, we dealt with the post optimality solution, or what is known as sensitivity analysis, using the principle of shadow prices. The scientific solution to any problem is not a complete solution once the optimal solution is reached. Any change in the values of the model constants or what is known as the inputs of the model that will chan

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Publication Date
Sun Nov 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
The Constituents of Active Structure in Contemporary Architectural Products
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The structure is considered in its scientific formula one of the concepts which complete the architectural image that seeks to take out an effective and attractive structure in contemporary architectural production, especially that the structure -in general- represents strength in addition to delight and functional benefits according to Vitruvius trinity. So, the role of structure depends on making its aesthetical properties able to give efficiency within architectural product. That has come through adoption of intellectual mechanism of structural means and details –as a whole or parts- and focused on structure with the recipient's needs, aesthetical, and sensory purposes in addition to its fundamental role of stabilit

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Predicting Social Security Fund compensation in Iraq using ARMAX Model
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Time series have gained great importance and have been applied in a manner in the economic, financial, health and social fields and used in the analysis through studying the changes and forecasting the future of the phenomenon. One of the most important models of the black box is the "ARMAX" model, which is a mixed model consisting of self-regression with moving averages with external inputs. It consists of several stages, namely determining the rank of the model and the process of estimating the parameters of the model and then the prediction process to know the amount of compensation granted to workers in the future in order to fulfil the future obligations of the Fund. , And using the regular least squares method and the frequ

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 20 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Comparison between Modified Weighted Pareto Distribution and Many other Distributions
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In 2020 one of the researchers in this paper, in his first research, tried to find out the Modified Weighted Pareto Distribution of Type I by using the Azzalini method for weighted distributions, which contain three parameters, two of them for scale while the third for shape.This research compared the distribution with two other distributions from the same family; the Standard Pareto Distribution of Type I and the Generalized Pareto Distribution by using the Maximum likelihood estimator which was derived by the researchers for Modified Weighted Pareto Distribution of Type I, then the Mont Carlo method was used–that is one of the simulation manners for generating random samples data in different sizes ( n= 10,30,50), and in di

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 15 2022
Journal Name
Al-academy
Dramatic function of temporal variables in the feature film
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Time and space are indispensable basics in cinematic art. They contain the characters, their actions and the nature of events, as well as their expressive abilities to express many ideas and information. However, the process of collecting space and time in one term is space-time, and it is one of Einstein’s theoretical propositions, who sees that Time is an added dimension within the place, so the study here differs from the previous one, and this is what the researcher determined in the topic of his research, which was titled (The Dramatic Function of Space-Time Variables in the Narrative Film), Which included the following: The research problem, which crystallized in the following question: What is the dramatic function of the tempor

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Publication Date
Fri Sep 30 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Improving the Accuracy of Prayer Times and Calculating Their Change with Geographical Latitudes during the Year 2021 AD
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       The entry time of the prayer in Islam is a prerequisite condition for performing obligatory prayers, and prayer times to be performed in Islam coincides with the time changes of the position of the sun. The elliptical and equatorial coordinates of the sun were calculated for different latitudes. The prayer times for the city of Baghdad were calculated at (latitude = 33.34º N, longitude = 44.43 E) with high accuracy for the year 2021 AD. The results showed that all prayer times are affected by latitude according to each region except (Dhuhr prayer (, it changes with the change of the equation of time, because the equation of time does not depend on latitude, but rather on the sun’s declination, which depends on date. We al

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