There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we study the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) for forecasting oil prices. Results show that the price of oil will increase to 156.2$ by 2035.
Since the beginning of this century, a new communication map has been formed that foretells to get mankind to enter into a media environment in which the media is mixed with communication, which is technically and even intellectually known as integration.
This environment and its features are no different from the environment in its natural physical incision. If the level and temperature in the physical nature is a specific issue in the natural ecological balance, the level of freedoms, especially the transfer of information and views and circulation in society is also a determinant in the extent of media balance in the world on the one hand and in each country on the other.
There is also a special environment for nature,
... Show MoreA computational investigation is carried out in the field of charged particle optics with the aid of the numerical analysis methods. The work is concerned with the design of symmetrical double pole piece magnetic lens. The axial magnetic flux density distribution is determined by using exponential model, from which the paraxial-ray equation is solved to obtain the trajectory of particles that satisfy the suggested exponential model. From the knowledge of the first and second derivatives of axial potential distribution, the optical properties such as the focal length and aberration coefficients (radial distortion coefficient and spiral distortion coefficient) are determined. Finally, the pole piece profiles capable of pr
... Show MoreThe efficiency of internal combustion engines (ICE) is usually about thirty percent of the total energy of the fuel. The residual energy is lost in the exhaust gas, the lubrication, and the cooling water in the radiators. Recently much of the researcher’s efforts have focused on taking advantage of wasted energy of the exhaust gas. Using a thermoelectric generator (TEG) is one of the promising ways. However, TEG depends entirely on the temperature difference, which may be offered by the exhaust muffler. An experimental test has been conducted to study the thermal performance of a different muffler internal design. The researchers resort to the use of lost energy in an ICE using TEG, which is one of the ways to take adv
... Show MoreThe research aims to characterize the strategic plan of the Educational Professional Development Center, to reveal the most important training needs for teachers from this center, to reveal the extent to which this center meets those needs, and to identify the differences between teacher responses about the degree of importance, availability of those needs according to variables of sex, specialization, and years of experience. This descriptive study adopted a questionnaire applied to (256) teachers in the K.S.A. The results of the study showed that all training needs ranged in the degree of importance from large to very large and that the most important were the skills associated with communicating with members of the learning community.
... Show MoreIn this paper, a robust adaptive sliding mode controller is designed for a mobile platform trajectory tracking. The mobile platform is an example of a nonholonomic mechanical system. The presence of holonomic constraints reduces the number of degree of freedom that represents the system model, while the nonholonomic constraints reduce the differentiable degree of freedom. The mathematical model was derived here for the mobile platform, considering the existence of one holonomic and two nonholonomic constraints imposed on system dynamics. The partial feedback linearization method was used to get the input-output relation, where the output is the error functions between the position of a certain point on the platform
... Show MoreA new two-way nesting technique is presented for a multiple nested-grid ocean modelling system. The new technique uses explicit center finite difference and leapfrog schemes to exchange information between the different subcomponents of the nested-grid system. The performance of the different nesting techniques is compared, using two independent nested-grid modelling systems. In this paper, a new nesting algorithm is described and some preliminary results are demonstrated. The validity of the nesting method is shown in some problems for the depth averaged of 2D linear shallow water equation.
The operating characteristics of optoelectronic devices depend critically on the properties physical of the constituent materials, interesting compound has been focused on this research formed from group III and V of the periodic table. Thin film n-InSb heterjuntion were successfully fabricated on p-Si substrates by thermal evaporation technique at different annealing temperature (as prepared, 400,500,600) °C. The effect of annealing temperature on the structural, surface morphology, optical and optoelectronic properties of InSb films were investigated and studied. The crystal structure of the film was characterized by X-ray diffraction and techniques. AFM techniques inspect the surface morphology of InSb films, the study presented the val
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