Preferred Language
Articles
/
jih-2631
Bayesian Structural Time Series for Forecasting Oil Prices
...Show More Authors

There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we study the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) for forecasting oil prices. Results show that the price of oil will increase to 156.2$ by 2035.

Crossref
View Publication Preview PDF
Quick Preview PDF
Publication Date
Wed Oct 17 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Study About The Robustness Of The Bayesian Criterion
...Show More Authors

In this research work an attempt has been made to investigate about the Robustness of the Bayesian Information criterion to estimate the order of the autoregressive process when the error of this model,  Submits to a specific distributions and different cases of the time series on various size of samples by using the simulation,  This criterion has been studied by depending on ten distributions, they are (Normal, log-Normal, continues uniform, Gamma , Exponential, Gamble, Cauchy, Poisson, Binomial, Discrete uniform) distributions, and then it has been reached to many collection and recommendations related to this object , when the series residual variable is subject to each  ( Poisson , Binomial , Exponential , Dis

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Mon Feb 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
Bayesian Computational Methods of the Logistic Regression Model
...Show More Authors
Abstract<p>In this paper, we will discuss the performance of Bayesian computational approaches for estimating the parameters of a Logistic Regression model. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms was the base estimation procedure. We present two algorithms: Random Walk Metropolis (RWM) and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC). We also applied these approaches to a real data set.</p>
View Publication Preview PDF
Scopus (4)
Crossref (4)
Scopus Crossref
Publication Date
Mon Apr 20 2020
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Bayesian Inference for the Parameter and Reliability Function of Basic Gompertz Distribution under Precautionary loss Function
...Show More Authors

     In this paper, some estimators for the unknown shape parameter and reliability function of Basic Gompertz distribution have been obtained, such as Maximum likelihood estimator and Bayesian estimators under Precautionary loss function using Gamma prior and Jefferys prior. Monte-Carlo simulation is conducted to compare mean squared errors (MSE) for all these estimators for the shape parameter and integrated mean squared error (IMSE's) for comparing the performance of the Reliability estimators. Finally, the discussion is provided to illustrate the results that summarized in tables.

View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Fri Apr 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A Comparison Between Classic Local Least Estimatop And Bayesian Methoid For Estimating Semiparametric Logistic Regression Model
...Show More Authors

Semi-parametric models analysis is one of the most interesting subjects in recent studies due to give an efficient model estimation. The problem when the response variable has one of two values either 0 ( no response) or one – with response which is called the logistic regression model.

We compare two methods Bayesian and . Then the results were compared using MSe criteria.

A simulation had been used to study the empirical behavior for the Logistic model , with  different sample sizes and variances. The results using represent that the Bayesian method is better than the   at small samples sizes.

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Performance Series Performance Metrics (*) A case study in the General Company for Cotton Industries
...Show More Authors

The problem of the research is focused on importance limited of Iraq industrial companies in application of scientific measurements of supply chains performance,  The research sought to achieve a group of goals, the most important are , identifying the strengths and weaknesses in the reality of supply chain in General Company for Cotton Industries, The data and information required are gathered from the dependence company, records through the field observations and personal interviews, the research used some quantitative indicators to measure of supply chain performance, The research reached to many conclusions , the most outstanding among them is the existence of a strong inverse correlatio

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Sat Dec 01 2018
Journal Name
Results In Physics
Radioactivity effect on the shape of even-even nuclei for uranium and thorium series
...Show More Authors

The purpose of present work is to study the relationship of the deformed shape of the nucleus with the radioactivity of nuclei for (Uranium-238 and Thorium-232) series. To achieve our purposes we have been calculated the quadruple deformation parameter (β2) and the eccentricity (e) and compare the radioactive series with the change of the and (e) as indicator for the changing in the nucleus shape with the radioactivity. To obtain the value of quadruple deformation parameter (β2), the adopted value of quadruple transition probability B (E2; 0+ → 2+) was calculated from Global Best fit equation. While the eccentricity (e) was calculated from the values of the minor and major ellipsoid axis’s (a & b). From the results, it is obvi

... Show More
View Publication
Crossref (3)
Crossref
Publication Date
Fri Aug 27 2021
Journal Name
Human Interaction, Emerging Technologies And Future Systems V: Proceedings Of The 5th International Virtual Conference On Human Interaction And Emerging Technologies, Ihiet 2021, August 27-29, 2021 And The 6th Ihiet: Future Systems (ihiet-fs 2021), October 28-30, 2021, France
Electricity Consumption Forecasting in Iraq with Artificial Neural Network
...Show More Authors

Scopus (11)
Scopus
Publication Date
Thu May 28 2020
Journal Name
Applied Sciences
THz-TDS for Detecting Glycol Contamination in Engine Oil
...Show More Authors

There continues to be a need for an in-situ sensor system to monitor the engine oil of internal combustion engines. Engine oil needs to be monitored for contaminants and depletion of additives. While various sensor systems have been designed and evaluated, there is still a need to develop and evaluate new sensing technologies. This study evaluated Terahertz time-domain spectroscopy (THz-TDS) for the identification and estimation of the glycol contamination of automotive engine oil. Glycol contamination is a result of a gasket or seal leak allowing coolant to enter an engine and mix with the engine oil. An engine oil intended for use in both diesel and gasoline engines was obtained. Fresh engine oil samples were contaminated with fou

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Scopus (11)
Crossref (13)
Scopus Clarivate Crossref
Publication Date
Mon Oct 02 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Transport Assessment Using Bayesian Method to Determine Ride-Hailing in Kula Lumpur: A Case Study
...Show More Authors

This research was designed to investigate the factors affecting the frequency of use of ride-hailing in a fast-growing metropolitan region in Southeast Asia, Kuala Lumpur. An intercept survey was used to conduct this study in three potential locations that were acknowledged by one of the most famous ride-hailing companies in Kuala Lumpur. This study used non-parametric and machine learning techniques to analyze the data, including the Pearson chi-square test and Bayesian Network. From 38 statements (input variables), the Pearson chi-square test identified 14 variables as the most important. These variables were used as predictors in developing a BN model that predicts the probability of weekly usage frequency of ride-hai

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF
Crossref
Publication Date
Mon Oct 01 2012
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Structural and optical properties for nano GaxSb1-x films
...Show More Authors

Alloys of GaxSb1-x system with different Ga concentration (x=0.4, 0.5, 0.6) have been prepared in evacuated quartz tubes. The structure of the alloys were examined by X-ray diffraction analysis (XRD) and found to be polycrystalline of zincblend structure with strong crystalline orientation (220). Thin films of GaxSb1-x system of about 1.0 μm thickness have been deposited by flash evaporation method on glass substrate at 473K substrate temperature (Ts) and under pressure 10-6 mbar. This study concentrated on the effect of Ga concentration (x) on some physical properties of GaxSb1-x thin films such as structural and optical properties. The structure of prepared films for various values of x was polycrystalline. The X-ray diffraction analy

... Show More
View Publication Preview PDF