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jih-2631
Bayesian Structural Time Series for Forecasting Oil Prices
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There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we study the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) for forecasting oil prices. Results show that the price of oil will increase to 156.2$ by 2035.

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2021
Journal Name
Computers & Electrical Engineering
Utilizing different types of deep learning models for classification of series arc in photovoltaics systems
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Publication Date
Fri Oct 21 2022
Journal Name
Surgical Neurology International
SNI/SNI Digital-Baghdad neurosurgery educational series
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Background:

Access to high-quality neurosurgery online learning is limited in low- and middle-income countries, and Iraq is part of this category. The need for collaboration and connection of people worldwide to exchange ideas and experiences in neurosurgery is a challenge. Surgical Neurology International® (SNI)/SNI Digital stimulated the establishment of the joint effort to bring the discussion about the best experiences in neurosurgery from the United States and Iraq together in an internet meeting format.

Methods:

An online survey was formulated and distributed to the attendees of the SNI-Baghdad neurosurgery

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Publication Date
Thu May 28 2020
Journal Name
Applied Sciences
THz-TDS for Detecting Glycol Contamination in Engine Oil
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There continues to be a need for an in-situ sensor system to monitor the engine oil of internal combustion engines. Engine oil needs to be monitored for contaminants and depletion of additives. While various sensor systems have been designed and evaluated, there is still a need to develop and evaluate new sensing technologies. This study evaluated Terahertz time-domain spectroscopy (THz-TDS) for the identification and estimation of the glycol contamination of automotive engine oil. Glycol contamination is a result of a gasket or seal leak allowing coolant to enter an engine and mix with the engine oil. An engine oil intended for use in both diesel and gasoline engines was obtained. Fresh engine oil samples were contaminated with fou

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A Comparison Between Maximum Likelihood Method And Bayesian Method For Estimating Some Non-Homogeneous Poisson Processes Models
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Abstract

The Non - Homogeneous Poisson  process is considered  as one of the statistical subjects which had an importance in other sciences and a large application in different areas as waiting raws and rectifiable systems method , computer and communication systems and the theory of reliability and many other, also it used in modeling the phenomenon that occurred by unfixed way over time (all events that changed by time).

This research deals with some of the basic concepts that are related to the Non - Homogeneous Poisson process , This research carried out two models of the Non - Homogeneous Poisson process which are the power law model , and Musa –okumto ,   to estimate th

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Publication Date
Thu Jul 20 2023
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Bayesian Approach for estimating the unknown Scale parameter of Erlang Distribution Based on General Entropy Loss Function
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We are used Bayes estimators for unknown scale parameter  when shape Parameter  is known of Erlang distribution. Assuming different informative priors for unknown scale  parameter. We derived The posterior density with posterior mean and posterior variance using different informative priors for unknown scale parameter  which are the inverse exponential distribution, the inverse chi-square distribution, the inverse Gamma distribution, and the standard Levy distribution as prior. And we derived Bayes estimators based on the general entropy loss function (GELF) is used the Simulation method to obtain the results. we generated different cases for the parameters of the Erlang model, for different sample sizes. The estimates have been comp

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
NONPARAMETRIC And Semiparametric Bayesian Estimators in survival function analysis
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 Most statistical research generally relies on the study of the behaviour of different phenomena during specific time periods and the use of the results of these studies in the development of appropriate recommendations and decision-making and for the purpose of statistical inference on the parameters of the statistical distribution of life times in  The technical staff of most of the manufacturers in the research units of these companies deals with censored data, the main objective of the study of survival is the need to provide information that is the basis for decision making and must clarify the problem and then the goals and limitations of this study and that  It may have different possibilities to perform the

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 30 2014
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
New Viscosity Correlation for Different Iraqi Oil Fields
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Viscosity is one of the most important governing parameters of the fluid flow, either in the porous media or in pipelines. So it is important to use an accurate method to calculate the oil viscosity at various operating conditions. In the literature, several empirical correlations have been proposed for predicting crude oil viscosity. However, these correlations are limited to predict the oil viscosity at specified conditions. In the present work, an extensive experimental data of oil viscosities collected from different samples of Iraqi oil reservoirs was applied to develop a new correlation to calculate the oil viscosity at various operating conditions either for dead, satura

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 17 2021
Journal Name
Materials
Recycled Concrete Aggregate for Medium-Quality Structural Concrete
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This paper reports an evaluation of the properties of medium-quality concrete incorporating recycled coarse aggregate (RCA). Concrete specimens were prepared with various percentages of the RCA (25%, 50%, 75%, and 100%). The workability, mechanical properties, and durability in terms of abrasion of cured concrete were examined at different ages. The results reveal insignificant differences between the recycled concrete (RC) and reference concrete in terms of the mechanical and durability-related measurements. Meanwhile, the workability of the RC reduced vastly since the replacement of the RCA reached 75% and 100%. The ultrasound pulse velocity (UPV) results greatly depend on the porosity of concrete and the RC exhibited higher poros

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 30 2013
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Microfiltration Membranes for Separating Oil / Water Emulsion
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This research was aimed to study the efficiency of microfiltration membranes for the treatment of oily wastewater and the factors affecting the performance of the microfiltration membranes experimental work were includes operating the microfiltration process using polypropylene membrane (1 micron) and ceramic membrane (0.5 micron) constructed as candle; two methods of operation were examined: dead end and cross flow. The oil emulsion was prepared using two types of oils: vegetable oil and motor oil (classic oil 20W-50). The operating parameters studied are: feed oil concentration 50 – 800 mg/l, feed flow rate 10 – 40 l/h, and temperature 30 – 50 oC, for dead end and cross flow microfiltration.
It was found that water flux decrea

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 17 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Simulation Expirment for Proofing the Theoretical Assumption of Time Complexity for Binary Search Tree
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      It is frequently asserted that an advantage of a binary search tree implementation of a set over linked list implementation is that for reasonably well balanced binary search trees the average search time (to discover whether or not a particular element is present in the set) is O(log N) to the base 2 where N is the number of element in the set (the size of the tree).  This paper presents an experiment for measuring and comparing the obtained binary search tree time with the expected time (theoretical), this experiment proved the correctness of the hypothesis, the experiment is carried out using a program in turbo Pascal with recursion technique implementation and a statistical method  to prove th

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