There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we study the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) for forecasting oil prices. Results show that the price of oil will increase to 156.2$ by 2035.
in this paper the collocation method will be solve ordinary differential equations of retarted arguments also some examples are presented in order to illustrate this approach
The present study is the first taxonomic study on scorpions in Iraq. The specimens were collected from regions in the middle and south of Iraq, three families, seven genera and eight species were recorded for the first time in Iraq and one new species of the world.
Internet of Things (IoT) technology could be an effective solution to accomplish real-time retrieval of historical electronic health records (EHRs) to present better service of healthcare. In a pilgrimage environment such as the Hajj, IoT can be applied by identifying the non-local patients as electronic tags, and the tag data can be read by wireless sensors. The data that is collected using Radio-Frequency Identification (RFID) can be acquired from a Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) in order to accomplish many decisions, such as sending an ambulance to a patient’s location, sending an emergency alert to his immediate family circle, and retrieving his EHR from a database. The main contribution of this research is to propose a conceptual IoT
... Show MoreThe extracted oil from the Chia seeds white and black were used in the manufacture of certain foods such as mayonnaise. The results of the sensory evaluation showed that the product was acceptable except for the flavor of white chia seed oil. The seeds were fully used in the manufacture of the nutella. The results of the sensory evaluation were encouraging the use of the extracted oil from the black chia seeds in the production of the nutella except the spread property. Chia seeds were also used in the manufacture of pudding. The results of the sensory evaluation showed an excellent and acceptable product of black chia seeds oil can be obtained, while the white seeds did not receive the acceptance in terms of color and flavor.
Economic organizations operate in a dynamic environment, which necessitates the use of quantitative techniques to make their decisions. Here, the role of forecasting production plans emerges. So, this study aims to the analysis of the results of applying forecasting methods to production plans for the past years, in the Diyala State Company for Electrical Industries.
The Diyala State Company for Electrical Industries was chosen as a field of research for its role in providing distinguished products as well as the development and growth of its products and quality, and because it produces many products, and the study period was limited to ten years, from 2010 to 2019. This study used the descriptive approa
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In this research we discussed the parameter estimation and variable selection in Tobit quantile regression model in present of multicollinearity problem. We used elastic net technique as an important technique for dealing with both multicollinearity and variable selection. Depending on the data we proposed Bayesian Tobit hierarchical model with four level prior distributions . We assumed both tuning parameter are random variable and estimated them with the other unknown parameter in the model .Simulation study was used for explain the efficiency of the proposed method and then we compared our approach with (Alhamzwi 2014 & standard QR) .The result illustrated that our approach
... Show MorePolymer films of PEG and PVA and their blend with different
concentrations of MnCl2 (0, 2, 4, 6 and 10 %.wt) were study using
casting technique. The X-ray spectra of pure PEG, PVA and
PVA:PEG films and with addition of 2% concentrations from
(MnCl2) show amorphous structures. The results for FTIR show the
interaction between the filler and polymer blend results in
decreasing crystallinity with rich amorphous phase. This
amorphous nature confirms the complexation between the filler and
the polymer blend. The optical properties of (PVA:PEG/MnCl2)
contain the recording of absorbance (A) and explain that the
absorption coefficient (α), refractive index (n), extinction coefficient
(ko) and the dielectric cons
The objective of this study is to examine the properties of Bayes estimators of the shape parameter of the Power Function Distribution (PFD-I), by using two different prior distributions for the parameter θ and different loss functions that were compared with the maximum likelihood estimators. In many practical applications, we may have two different prior information about the prior distribution for the shape parameter of the Power Function Distribution, which influences the parameter estimation. So, we used two different kinds of conjugate priors of shape parameter θ of the <
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