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jih-2631
Bayesian Structural Time Series for Forecasting Oil Prices
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There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we study the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) for forecasting oil prices. Results show that the price of oil will increase to 156.2$ by 2035.

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 21 2013
Journal Name
المؤتمر العلمي الدولي الرابع لاتحاد الاحصائيين العرب / بغداد
Estimating Fertility Rates in Iraq by using (Lee-Carter) Model And Forecasting for the Period (2012_2031)
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A large number of researchers had attempted to identify the pattern of the functional relationship between fertility from a side and economic and social characteristics of the population from another, with the strength of effect of each. So, this research aims to monitor and analyze changes in the level of fertility temporally and spatially in recent decades, in addition to estimating fertility levels in Iraq for the period (1977-2011) and then make forecasting to the level of fertility in Iraq at the national level (except for the Kurdistan region), and for the period of (2012-2031). To achieve this goal has been the use of the Lee-Carter model to estimate fertility rates and predictable as well. As this is the form often has been familiar

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 29 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Optimum Time Schedule for Industrial Processes (II)
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The  present study  deals  with successive  stages  of  productive

operations happened to produce a production within each stage befo re it  moves to the next one. ll cou ld  be deduced that this study is an extension  to what bas  been mentioned  in (1 ) .ln  (I),  the  optimum distribution of  di!Terent jobs of  workers and  machines  in  the productive operations has been st ud ied whi le the study  invol ves the optimum schedule for the succession of these operations presuming that thay have already been distributed on machines and workers (2).A mathematical form has been put for this study to define the "Object.ive Function "

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 29 2012
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Design a Fault Tolerance for Real Time Distributed System
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This paper designed a fault tolerance for soft real time distributed system (FTRTDS). This system is designed to be independently on specific mechanisms and facilities of the underlying real time distributed system. It is designed to be distributed on all the computers in the distributed system and controlled by a central unit.

Besides gathering information about a target program spontaneously, it provides information about the target operating system and the target hardware in order to diagnose the fault before occurring, so it can handle the situation before it comes on. And it provides a distributed system with the reactive capability of reconfiguring and reinitializing after the occurrence of a failure.

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 04 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Practical mathematical skills required for measuring and joining electrical circuits series and parallel
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Skills learning is considered as an important factor in learning any subject as well as mathematics . Mathematical skills have a number of steps that should be learned and understood faster and with more accuracy . The practical or applied skills are type of learning which includes educational preparation and hand on skills is acquired which conducted by organized educational institutions. The sample included (120) students (males and females) first year / dept.of electrical technigues . The mathematical skills are implemented to wire up the electrical circuts. Test is implemented with questions concerned with the skills .statistical operations were conducted as well as the validity and standard deviation for the test .The results showed

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Publication Date
Fri Aug 27 2021
Journal Name
Human Interaction, Emerging Technologies And Future Systems V: Proceedings Of The 5th International Virtual Conference On Human Interaction And Emerging Technologies, Ihiet 2021, August 27-29, 2021 And The 6th Ihiet: Future Systems (ihiet-fs 2021), October 28-30, 2021, France
Electricity Consumption Forecasting in Iraq with Artificial Neural Network
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Publication Date
Mon Aug 14 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Effect OF Film Thickness And Annealing Time on Structural And Optical Propertieis Of The Oxides (Fe2030, Co304) And Their Mixtures
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Thin film technology is one of the most important technologies
that have contributed to the development of semiconductors and their
applications in several industrial fields. The Iron Oxides (Fe20) and
(Co3O4) thin films and their applications are of importance, in that these
two materials are considered as important industrial materials, and used
in spectrally selective coating, temperature sensors, resistive heaters, and
photo cells.
Thin films of Iron Oxide (Fe20,), Cobalt Oxide (Co304) and
their mixtures in different ratios (75:25, 50:50, 25:75) were prepared by
the method of chemical spray pyrolysis deposition at different thicknesses
(77s t S200) nm on cover-glass substrates: thickness of (1) mm at

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 18 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Mechanics Of Continua And Mathematical Sciences
THE COMPARISON OF THE METHODS ESTIMATING THE FRACTIONAL DIFFERENCES OF PARAMETER AND ITS DEPENDENCE ON ESTIMATION THE BEST LINEAR MODEL OF TIME SERIES IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL FIELD
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Publication Date
Tue Apr 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Evaluation Age and Gender for General Census of the population in Iraq by using nonparametric Bayesian Kernel Estimators
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The process of evaluating data (age and the gender structure) is one of the important factors that help any country to draw plans and programs for the future. Discussed the errors in population data for the census of Iraqi population of 1997. targeted correct and revised to serve the purposes of planning. which will be smoothing the population databy using nonparametric regression estimator (Nadaraya-Watson estimator) This estimator depends on bandwidth (h) which can be calculate it by two ways of using Bayesian method, the first when observations distribution is Lognormal Kernel and the second is when observations distribution is Normal Kernel

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2011
Journal Name
2011 Developments In E-systems Engineering
Enhanced Computation Time for Fast Block Matching Algorithm
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Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Performance Series Performance Metrics (*) A case study in the General Company for Cotton Industries
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The problem of the research is focused on importance limited of Iraq industrial companies in application of scientific measurements of supply chains performance,  The research sought to achieve a group of goals, the most important are , identifying the strengths and weaknesses in the reality of supply chain in General Company for Cotton Industries, The data and information required are gathered from the dependence company, records through the field observations and personal interviews, the research used some quantitative indicators to measure of supply chain performance, The research reached to many conclusions , the most outstanding among them is the existence of a strong inverse correlatio

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