There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we study the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) for forecasting oil prices. Results show that the price of oil will increase to 156.2$ by 2035.
For the most reliable and reproducible results for calibration or general testing purposes of two immiscible liquids, such as water in engine oil, good emulsification is vital. This study explores the impact of emulsion quality on the Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) spectroscopy calibration standards for measuring water contamination in used or in-service engine oil, in an attempt to strengthen the specific guidelines of ASTM International standards for sample preparation. By using different emulsification techniques and readily available laboratory equipment, this work is an attempt to establish the ideal sample preparation technique for reliability, repeatability, and reproducibility for FT-IR analysis while still considering t
... Show MoreNasryia oil field is located about 38 Km to the north-west of Nasryia city. The field was discovered in 1975 after doing seismic by Iraqi national oil company. Mishrif formation is a carbonate rock (Limestone and Dolomite) and its thickness reach to 170m. The main reservoir is the lower Mishrif (MB) layer which has medium permeability (3.5-100) md and good porosity (10-25) %. Form well logging interpretation, it has been confirmed the rock type of Mishrif formation as carbonate rock. A ten meter shale layer is separating the MA from MB layer. Environmental corrections had been applied on well logs to use the corrected one in the analysis. The combination of Neutron-Density porosity has been chosen for interpretation as it is c
... Show MorePermeability is one of the essential petrophysical properties of rocks, reflecting the rock's ability to pass fluids. It is considered the basis for building any model to predict well deliverability. Yamama formation carbonate rocks are distinguished by sedimentary cycles that separate formation into reservoir units and insulating layers, a very complex porous system caused by secondary porosity due to substitute and dissolution processes. Those factors create permeability variables and vary significantly. Three ways used for permeability calculation, the firstly was the classical method, which only related the permeability to the porosity, resulting in a weak relationship. Secondly, the flow zone indicator (FZI) was divided reservoir into
... Show MoreThe present study was conducted to reveal the effect of crude oil on some fungal species isolation from soil in order to evaluate the role of these fungi in environmental balance of soil . The results showed a variation in numbers and percentage of the fungal isolates Aspergillus fumigatus dominated over all isolates with a frequency of (32.47) . In respect of the effect of different concentrations of the crude oil, low concentrations (0.05, 0.1) % showed no effect on radial growth ( mean colony diameter) of the isolated fungi grown &nbs
... Show MoreThe injection of Low Salinity Water (LSWI) as an Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) method has recently attracted a lot of attention. Extensive research has been conducted to investigate and identify the positive effects of LSWI on oil recovery. In order to demonstrate the impact of introducing low salinity water into a reservoir, simulations on the ECLIPSE 100 simulator are being done in this work. To simulate an actual reservoir, an easy static model was made. In order to replicate the effects of injecting low salinity water and normal salinity, or seawater, the reservoir is three-phase with oil, gas, and water. It has one injector and one producer. Five cases were suggested to investigate the effect of low salinity water injection with differen
... Show MoreBuzurgan oil field suffers from the phenomenon of asphaltene precipitation. The serious negatives of this phenomenon are the decrease in production caused by clogging of the pores and decrease in permeability and wettability of the reservoir rocks, in addition to the blockages that occur in the pipeline transporting crude oil. The presence of laboratories in the Iraqi oil companies helped to conduct the necessary experiments, such as gas chromatography (GC) test to identify the components of crude oil and the percentages of each component, These laboratory results consider the main elements in deriving a new equation called modified colloidal instability index (MCII) equation based on a well-known global equation called colloidal in
... Show MoreIn this work, InSe thin films were deposited on glass substrates by thermal evaporation technique with a deposit rate of (2.5∓0.2) nm/sec. The thickness of the films was around (300∓10) nm, and the thin films were annealed at (100, 200 and 300)°C. The structural, morphology, and optical properties of Indium selenide thin films were studied using X-ray diffraction, Scanning Electron Microscope and UV–Visible spectrometry respectively. X-ray diffraction analyses showed that the as deposited thin films have amorphous structures. At annealing temperature of 100°C and 200°C, the films show enhanced crystalline nature, but at 300°C the film shows a polycrystalline structure with Rhombohedral phase with crystallites size of 17.459 nm. Th
... Show MoreIn this work, nanostructured TiO2 thin films were grown by pulsed laser deposition (PLD) technique on glass substrates. TiO2 thin films then were annealed at 400-600 °C in air for a period of 2 hours. Effect of annealing on the structural and morphological were studied. Many growth parameters have been considered to specify the optimum conditions, namely substrate temperature (300 °C), oxygen pressure (10-2 Torr), laser fluence energy density (0.4 J/cm2), using double frequency Q-switching Nd:YAG laser beam (wavelength 532nm), repetition rate (1-6 Hz) and the pulse duration of 10 ns. The results of the X-ray test show that all nanostructures tetragonal are polycrystalline. These results show that grain size increase fr
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