There are many methods of forecasting, and these methods take data only, analyze it, make a prediction by analyzing, neglect the prior information side and do not considering the fluctuations that occur overtime. The best way to forecast oil prices that takes the fluctuations that occur overtime and is updated by entering prior information is the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) method. Oil prices fluctuations have an important role in economic so predictions of future oil prices that are crucial for many countries whose economies depend mainly on oil, such as Iraq. Oil prices directly affect the health of the economy. Thus, it is necessary to forecast future oil price with models adapted for emerging events. In this article, we study the Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) for forecasting oil prices. Results show that the price of oil will increase to 156.2$ by 2035.
In the present work, the efficiency of Tri-octyl Methyl Ammonium Chloride (TOMAC) ionic liquid was investigated as new and green demulsifier for three types of Iraqi crude oil emulsions (Nafut Khana (NK), Kirkuk and Basrah). The separation efficiency was studied at room temperature and by using microwave heating technique. Several batch experiments were done to specify the suitable conditions for the emulsification and demulsification which were specified as 45 minutes and 3000 rpm for crude oil emulsification while the ionic liquid doses were (500,300,150,50) ppm and the conditions of microwave heating were 1000 watt and 50 second as irradiation time. The results were very encouraging especially for NK and Kirkuk crude oil emulsions whe
... Show MorePure cadmium oxide films (CdO) and doped with zinc were prepared at different atomic ratios using a pulsed laser deposition technique using an ND-YAG laser from the targets of the pressed powder capsules. X-ray diffraction measurements showed a cubic-shaped of CdO structure. Another phase appeared, especially in high percentages of zinc, corresponding to the hexagonal structure of zinc. The degree of crystallinity, as well as the crystal size, increased with the increase of the zinc ratio for the used targets. The atomic force microscopy measurements showed that increasing the dopant percentage leads to an increase in the size of the nanoparticles, the particle size distribution was irregular and wide, in addition, to increase the surfac
... Show MoreKnowing the distribution of the mechanical rock properties and the far field stresses for the field of interest is an important task for many applications concerning reservoir geomechanics, including wellbore instability analysis, hydraulic fracturing, sand production, reservoir compaction, and subsidence. A major challenge with determining the rock's mechanical properties is that they cannot be directly measured at the borehole. Furthermore, the recovered carbonate core samples for performing measurements are limited and they provide discrete data for specific depths.
The purpose of this study is to build 2D and 3D geomechanical models of the Khasib reservoir in the East Baghdad oil field/ Central area. TECHLOG.2015.3 softwa
... Show MoreThis study reports the fabrication of tin oxide (SnO2) thin films using pulsed laser deposition (PLD). The effect of 60Co (300, 900, and 1200 Gy) gamma radiation on the structural, morphological, and optical features is systematically demonstrated using X-ray diffraction (XRD), field emission scanning electron microscopy (FE-SEM), atomic force microscopy (AFM), and ultraviolet-visible light analysis (UV-Vis), respectively In XRD tests, the size of the crystallites decreased from 45.5 to 40.8 nm for the control samples and from 1200 Gy to 60Co for the irradiated samples. Using FESEM analysis, the particle diameter revealed a similar trend to that attained using XRD; in particular, the average diameters were 93.8 and
... Show MoreFour new complexes of Pd(II), Pt(II) and Pt(IV) with DMSO solution of the ligand 8-[(4-nitrophenyl)azo]guanine (L) have been synthesized. Reaction of the ligand with Pd(II) at different pH gave two new complexes, at pH=8, a complex of the formula [Pd(L)2]Cl2.DMSO (1) was formed, while at pH=4.5,the complex[Pd(L)3]Cl2.DMSO (2) was obtained. Meanwhile, the reaction of the ligand with Pt(II) and Pt(IV) revealed new complexes with the formulas[Pt(L)2]Cl2.DMSO (3)and [Pt(L)3]Cl4.DMSO (4) at pH 7.5 and 6 respectively.
All the preparations were performed after fixing the optimum pH and concentration. The effect of time on the stability of these complexes was checked. The stoichiometry of the complexes was determined by the mole ratio and Job
A Laced Reinforced Concrete (LRC) structural element comprises continuously inclined shear reinforcement in the form of lacing that connects the longitudinal reinforcements on both faces of the structural element. This study conducted a theoretical investigation of LRC deep beams to predict their behavior after exposure to fire and high temperatures. Four simply supported reinforced concrete beams of 1500 mm, 200 mm, and 240 mm length, width, and depth, respectively, were considered. The specimens were identical in terms of compressive strength ( 40 MPa) and steel reinforcement details. The same laced steel reinforcement ratio of 0.0035 was used. Three specimens were burned at variable durations and steady-state temperatures (one
... Show MoreIraqi calcium bentonite was activated via acidification to study its structural and electrical properties. The elemental analysis of treated bentonite was determined by using X-ray fluorescence while the unit crystal structure was studied through X-ray diffraction showing disappearance of some fundamental reflections due to the treatment processes. The surface morphology, on the other hand, was studied thoroughly by Scanning Electron microscopy SEM and Atomic Force Microscope AFM showing some fragments of montmorillonite sheets. Furthermore, the electrical properties of bentonite were studied including: The dielectric permittivity, conductivity, tangent loss factor, and impedance with range of frequency (0.1-1000 KHz) at different temperatu
... Show MoreA polycrystalline CdTefilms have been prepared by thermal evaporation technique on glass substrate at room temperature. The films thickness was about700±50 nm. Some of these films were annealed at 573 K for different duration times (60, 120 and 180 minutes), and other CdTe films followed by a layer of CdCl2 which has been deposited on them, and then the prepared CdTe films with CdCl2 layer have been annealed for the same conditions. The structures of CdTe films without and with CdCl2 layer have been investigated by X-ray diffraction. The as prepared and annealed films without and with CdCl2 layer were polycrystalline structure with preferred orientation at (111) plane. The better structural pr
... Show MoreThis research investigated the influence of water-absorbent polymer balls (WAPB) on reinforced concrete beams’ structural behavior experimentally. Four self-compacted reinforced concrete beams of identical geometric layouts 150 mm × 200 mm × 1,500 mm, reinforcement details, and compressive strength