Abstract

  Bivariate time series modeling and forecasting have become a promising field of applied studies in recent times. For this purpose, the Linear Autoregressive Moving Average with exogenous variable ARMAX model is the most widely used technique over the past few years in modeling and forecasting this type of data. The most important assumptions of this model are linearity and homogenous for random error variance of the appropriate model. In practice, these two assumptions are often violated, so the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (ARCH) and (GARCH) with exogenous varia

     The research aims to analyze the impact of exchange rate fluctuations (EXM and EXN) and inflation (INF) on the gross domestic product (GDP) in Iraq for the period 1988-2020. The research is important by analyzing the magnitude of the macroeconomic and especially GDP effects of these variables, as well as the economic effects of exchange rates on economic activity. The results of the standard analysis using the ARDL model showed a long-term equilibrium relationship, according to the Bound Test methodology, from explanatory (independent) variables to the internal (dependent) variable, while the value of the error correction vector factor was negative and moral at a level less than (1%). The relationship bet

New complexes of Al(III) such as [Al (Ura) (Phen) (OH2) Cl ] Cl. 2H2O, [Al(Ura)2(OA)(OH2)Cl].H2O and [Al(Ura)3Cl3]H2O type, where (Ura)=Uracil, (Phen)= 1,10-Phenanthroline monohydrate and (OA)= Oxalic acid dihydrate, were prepared. The elemental microanalysis, FT.IR, electronic spectra, and magnetic susceptibility as well as the conductivity measurements are characterized. For isolated three complexes for six coordinated of Al(III) are proposed with molecular formulas that depend on the nature of (Ura), (Phen) and (OA) present. The suggested molecular structure into all complexes for aluminum ion is octahedral geometries .The antibacterial efficacy was examined from metal salt (AlCl3), ligands and metal complexes into the pathogenic bacteri

This study examines traveling wave solutions of the SIS epidemic model with nonlocal dispersion and delay. The research shows that a key factor in determining whether traveling waves exist is the basic reproduction number R0. In particular, the system permits nontrivial traveling wave solutions for σ≥σ∗ for R0>1, whereas there are no such solutions for σ<σ∗. This is because there is a minimal wave speed σ∗>0. On the other hand, there are no traveling wave solutions when R0≤1. In conclusion, we provide several numerical simulations that illustrate the existence of TWS.

The problem of poverty and deprivation constitute a humanitarian tragedy and its continuation may threaten the political achievements reached by the State. Iraq, in particular, and although he is one of the very rich countries due to availability of huge economic wealth, poverty indicators are still high. In addition, the main factor in the decline in the standard of living due to the weakness of the government's performance in the delivery of public services of water, electricity and sanitation. Thus, the guide for human development has been addressed which express the achievements that the state can be achieved both on a physical level or on the human level, so in order to put appropriate strategies and policies aimed at elimin

In this research, a group of complexes were prepared which were derived from Schiff base ligands, which is called (1E,1'E)-1,1'-(1,2-phenylene)bis(N-(2,4-dichlorophenyl) methanimine) (L) with ortho-phenanthroline (o-phen).The prepared complexes areM(II) [Co(II),Ni(II),Cu(II), Zn(II), Cd(II),and Hg(II)].A range of spectroscopic and technical techniques have been used to characterizethese materials, including:The FTIR, 1H-NMR, LC-Mass Spectrum, UV-Visbale, molar conductance, and magnaticmoment, atomic absorbtion, chlorid contents. Spectral results obtainedare showen that (ortho-phen) and (L) behave as neutral coordinating to the central metal ion by the donatingatoms(N2)of the both compounds. The geometry sha

Electrical Discharge Machining (EDM) is a non-traditional cutting technique for metals removing which is relied upon the basic fact that negligible tool force is produced during the machining process. Also, electrical discharge machining is used in manufacturing very hard materials that are electrically conductive. Regarding the electrical discharge machining procedure, the most significant factor of the cutting parameter is the surface roughness (Ra). Conventional try and error method is time consuming as well as high cost. The purpose of the present research is to develop a mathematical model using response graph modeling (RGM). The impact of various parameters such as (current, pulsation on time and pulsation off time) are studied on

Centralization and decentralization, planning and development, and community participation in the management of its affairs and to activate all the abilities that multiple methods aimed at creating the proper environment for the growth and development of society in the place where he lives. As long as the overall trend in Iraq, represented by the Permanent Constitution of decentralization to regions and provinces, the solutions to the obstacles that may face this transition in some respects presents ways of coordination and integration between multiple levels of planning which can be exercised by the schematic in the future the organization. In this paper some of the visions and ideas that can  contribute to the organization

The tests that measure special strength defined by speed contributes a great deal in evaluating the players' weaknesses and strengths so as to aid coaches judge their players according to scientific and objective measurements. The problem of the study lies in answering the following question : is there a test that measures legs' vertical strength defined by speed especially for youth basketball players? The aim of the research was to construct and standardize a test for measuring legs' vertical strength defined by speed in youth basketball. The subjects of the study were 74 youth basketball players from Baghdad. The researchers concluded that the test measures leg's vertical strength defined by speed for youth basketball players as well as

Abstract The wavelet shrink estimator is an attractive technique when estimating the nonparametric regression functions, but it is very sensitive in the case of a correlation in errors. In this research, a polynomial model of low degree was used for the purpose of addressing the boundary problem in the wavelet reduction in addition to using flexible threshold values in the case of Correlation in errors as it deals with those transactions at each level separately, unlike the comprehensive threshold values that deal with all levels simultaneously, as (Visushrink) methods, (False Discovery Rate) method, (Improvement Thresholding) and (Sureshrink method), as the study was conducted on real monthly data represented in the rates of theft crimes f