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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 31 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
ESTIMATION OF ELLAGIC ACID ACTIVITY WHEN MIXED WITH SOME TYPES OF CANDY AGAINST Streptococcus mutans ISOLATED FROM ADULT PATIENTS IN BAGHDAD CITY: ESTIMATION OF ELLAGIC ACID ACTIVITY WHEN MIXED WITH SOME TYPES OF CANDY AGAINST Streptococcus mutans ISOLATED FROM ADULT PATIENTS IN BAGHDAD CITY
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Microbial activity of Ellagic acid when mixed with some types of candy toward Streptococcus mutans microorganism was studied. The main purpose of carrying out this study is to produce a new type of candy that contains Ellagic acid in addition to xylitol instead of sucrose to prevent dental caries. The results show that the inhibitory action of Ellagic acid was more effective when mixed with this type of candy for the purpose of reducing Streptococcus mutans microorganisms, while sensory evaluation was applied in this study to 20 volunteers to that candy sample evaluated which contain (5 mg/ml) Ellagic acid with 100g xylitol to determine consumers acceptability of this sample of candy. The results were expressed as mean value, slandered d

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using the Box Jenkins models to predict Iraq's cement production and to demonstrate its adequacy under future construction projects
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تعد صناعة السمنت في العراق من اقدم الصناعات الحديثة واكثرها تطورا وتقدما ومن اقواها تاثيرا في الاقتصاد القومي. واذ توفر في صناعة السمنت العراقي كافة المستلزمات الناجحة من حيث توفر المواد الاولية والخبرات الفنية والتقنية واسواق ثابتة وراسخة محليا وعالميا فقد كان من المفروض ان يتم التوسع في هذه الصناعة، وان التخطيط لهذه الصناعة امرا ضروريا خاصة وان مادة السمنت هي احدى اهم المواد الرئيسة التي يؤثر توفره

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Rigid trunk sewer deterioration prediction models using multiple discriminant and neural network models in Baghdad city, Iraq
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The deterioration of buried sewers during their lifetime can be affected by several factors leading to bad performance and can damage the infrastructure similar to other engineering structures. The Hydraulic deterioration of the buried sewers caused by sewer blockages while the structural deterioration caused by sewer collapses due to sewer specifications and the surrounding soil characteristics and the groundwater level. The main objective of this research is to develop deterioration models, which are used to predict changes in sewer condition that can provide assessment tools for determining the serviceability of sewer networks in Baghdad city. Two deterioration models were developed and tested using statistical software SPSS, the

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Publication Date
Mon Jul 31 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Rigid Trunk Sewer Deterioration Prediction Models using Multiple Discriminant and Neural Network Models in Baghdad City, Iraq
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Publication Date
Thu Dec 13 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Effectiveness of An Instructional Program on Pulmonary Tuberculosis Patients Quality of Life Concerning General Health-Related among sample in Baghdad City
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Objective(s): This research aims at evaluating the quality of pulmonary tuberculosis patients life before and after applying the suggested instructional program, and to find out relationships among distribution of an overall assessment quality of life improvement and socio-demographic characteristics variables. Methodology: Self controlled design studying effectiveness of applying instructional program on quality of life for pulmonary tuberculosis patients among sample size (65) patients from primary health care centers/AL-Sadur City sector-the consultation clinic of chest and respiratory diseases at AL

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Publication Date
Tue Nov 06 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Patients' Knowledge about Chronic Diseases towards Risk Factors and Warning Signs of Stroke
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Objectives: to assess chronic diseases patients’ knowledge toward stroke risk factors and warning signs, besides
determining the relationship between chronic diseases patients’ knowledge and their sociodemographical
characteristics.
Methodology: A descriptive study was carried out at public medical clinics which has started from December
2
nd, 2008 to August 8th, 2009. A purposive "non-probability" sample of (300) chronic diseases individuals who
were clients of Public Medical Clinics who have one or more of the following chronic diseases (hypertension,
diabetes mellitus, heart diseases, and previous stroke), in Baghdad city. The data were collected through the use
of a constructed questionnaire which consists

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 30 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Study of Some Hormonal and Biochemical Parameters among Patients with Chronic Liver Diseases
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It has been revealed previously that chronic liver disease (CLD) may be associated to hormonal fluctuations. The current study, therefore, aimed to evaluate some hormones in CLD patients compared with non-CLD individuals. This case control study was conducted at Gastroenterology and Hepatology Teaching Hospital, Medical city, Baghdad, Iraq during December 2021 to May 2022. One hundred and twenty male patients with CLD (age:14-75 years) and 120 control males (age: 24-70 years) were involved in this study. Serum samples were taken from all individuals and were then analysed for many tests which included hormones (Cortisol, testosterone, prolactin, insulin  and thyroid stimulating hormone TSH); biochemical analysis (Prothrombin time

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 30 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Measurement of some Air Pollutantsin Printing Units and Copy Centers Within Baghdad City
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Emissions of particulate matter from nanopapers as well as inks and organic solvents during the printing operationand copying machines constitute a threat to human health, especially with long time exposure in closed working environments. The present study was conducted in some printing houses and copying centers of Baghdad city during February and April  .The studyproved the occurrence of an air pollution problem concerning lead and zinc contents in all the study sites. The levels of Pb, Zn and Cu were collected by low volume sampler from the air of the study sites then filter papers digested and determined the heavy metals by flame atomic spectrophotometer. Particulate matter was measured by Aerocet, Microtector  meter device was use

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Publication Date
Fri Nov 09 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Evaluation of Psychological Work Environment's Effect on Workers' Productivity in Baghdad City
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Objective: To evaluate the psychological work environment's effect on the workers’ productivity in Baghdad
City industries at Al-Rusafa and Al-Karkh Sectors.
Methodology: A descriptive evaluation design is employed throughout the present study from May 25th 2012
through January 7
th
, 2014. A purposive (non probability) sample is selected for the study which includes (500)
workers from industries at AL-Russafa and AL-Kerch sectors in Baghdad City. A questionnaire is constructed to
gather data which may assist to achieve the objective of the study. Content validity of the instrument is
determined through eliciting the opinions of a panel of (10) experts and the reliability through a pilot study by
using intern

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Study of the marketing supply chain of the fuel oil productUsing transport models
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The marketing logistic chain, as an integrated system aimed to balance the achievement of its main opposite objectives which represented in the access to the best service presented to the customer with lowest possible logistic costs especially the transportation costs, where encourages the researcher to choose the second objective as a field of this study in order to reduce the transportation costs in the final link of marketing logistic chain which related to delivering of fuel oil to the customer that falls within organizational responsibilities of the company under consideration (Oil Marketing Company) and also known in a brief name by (SOMO) through two methods, the first is by functioning quantative techniques by using trans

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