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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models

    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 13 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Evaluation of Clients’ Satisfaction towards Primary Health Care Centers Services at Baghdad City

Objective: To evaluate the client's satisfaction about the services provided in primary health care centers in the
city of Baghdad and its impact on the improvement of services.
Methodology: A simple random sample consisting of (200) clients to primary health care centers in the city of
Baghdad, (15-20) clients for each center using a questionnaire to evaluate the client's satisfaction for the service
and the use of the direct method of interview, which lasts for (6-10) minutes.
Results: Results of the study show that the number of men visits to primary health care centers, fewer women
This indicates that the most important responsibilities of family members and private health care is the
responsibility of women than

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 10 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Evaluation of Nurses’ Practices toward Safe Intravenous Chemotherapy Infusion in Baghdad City Hospitals

Abstract Objectives: The study aims to evaluate the nurses' practices that concerning intravenous chemotherapy infusion and to find out the association between nurses' practices and their level of education, year of experiences, and training course.
Methodology: A descriptive study was conducted in Baghdad Teaching Hospital and Al Amal National Hospital for Treatment of Tumors for the purpose of evaluating the practices of nurses related to infusion of intravenous chemotherapy for the period from 20th October 2017 to 14th March 2018. The sample was randomly selected from both hospitals. Who were evaluated by using a checklist to observe their practices which consisted of two parts; the first part included the demographic information

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 15 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Screening for Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder at Elementary Schools in Baghdad City

Objective(s): To determine the prevalence of ADHD among elementary school pupils; identify the association between pupil's level of ADHD and age, etc., and investigate the differences in pupils ADHD based on gender, and grade.

Methodology: A descriptive study was conducted on elementary school pupils. The study started from the period of 16th of September 2019 to the 1st of October 2020. A cluster sample of 800 pupils was selected. The questionnaire was constructed and developed and include two parts: the first part includes the pupil's general information and the second part includes scale of ADHD prevalence.

Results: The results of the present study indicated that 38(4.

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A field study of the problems of queues at some checkpoints in the city of Baghdad

 

Abstract

Due to the momentum of winning in the streets of the city of Baghdad as a result of the large number of checkpoints so felt researcher to conduct a field visit to find out the main reasons that led to this congestion and to find practical solutions to mitigate wastage winning the arrival time citizen to where you want the least possible time.

This research aims to overcome the difficulties experienced by citizens to reach their places of work and reduce waste at the time of service and waiting time as well as reduce the cost of waiting.

Has emerged study a set of conclusions, including the use of model queue (G / G / C) and the mome

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 13 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Study Some Parameters of HCV Isolated From Sample of Hemophilic Patients in Children Welfare Teaching Hospitalin Medical City/Baghdad

Objective(s) : This study aimed at evaluating the seroprevalence of anti -HCV and studying the
correlation between hemophilia and risk factors for acquiring HCV such as age , marital status &
occupation among hemophilic patients .
Methodology : 210 hemophilic patients in children welfare teaching hospital/medical city/Baghdad–Iraq
(hemophilia center) were investigated using prepared questionnaire and tested for HCV infection, those
were measuring patient’s age, hemophilia types and severity, marital status, residency and history of
previous HCV infection .
Results : Most hemophilic patients were hemophilia A at severe , hemophilia was at age group 20 – 29
years , the majority of patients were unmarried a

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 14 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Effect of Electronic Games on Children Behaviors who Attending Teaching Hospitals in Baghdad City

Objective(s): current study aims to find the effect of electronic games on children's behavior, and find the
relationship between child demographic data and the effect of electronic games on the child's behavior.
Methodology: A descriptive-analytic study was conducted for assessing the Effect of electronic games on
children's behaviors that attending to teaching hospitals in Baghdad city during the period of (October/ 20th
/2017 to March/1st /2018). A (50) purposive (non- probabilistic) sample from: Child Protection teaching
Hospital, Child Central Hospital in AL-Iskan. The sample is selected according to the criteria: Children who
visited the consulting unit of children in the hospitals in the first visit, children in

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Publication Date
Wed Jan 29 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Measuring the efficiency of quality health services in the province of Karbala: Models using the Data envelopment analysis (DEA)

  The research aims to measure  the efficiency of health services Quality  in the province of Karbala, using the Data Envelopment analysis Models in ( 2006). According to these models the degree of efficiency ranging between zero and unity. We estimate Scale efficiency  for two types of orientation direction, which are input and output oriented direction.

  The results showed, according Input-oriented efficiency that the levels of Scale efficiency on average is ( 0.975), in the province of Karbala. While the index of Output-oriented efficiency on average is (o.946).

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 27 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Effectiveness of an Instructional Program Concerning Healthy Lifestyle on Patients’ Attitudes after Percutaneous Coronary Intervention at Cardiac Centers in Baghdad City

Abstract:

Objective: The study’s aim to evaluate the effectiveness of instructional program about healthy lifestyle on patients’ attitudes after undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention.

Methodology: Quasi-experimental design/ has been utilized for the current study starting from December 2018 to March 2020 to achieve the objectives of the study. Non-probability (purposive) sample of 60 patients was divided into intervention and control groups. Data were analyzed by the application of descriptive and inferential statistical methods.

Results: findings reported that before intervention both study and control groups demonstrated low total mean of score relat

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 10 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Social Medical Care for the Deformed Children: A Field Study in Baghdad City

The Child is the first sedum for the human society performing, and we deal in our
research to explain the nature of the mutual relations in between the form and the medicine
social caring foundation. So the motherhood and the childhood nowadays become the most
dedicated in the researchers works, whom interesting in the social affairs, and that whom
work in the medicine field as scientists.
So the child is the future man and must be in wright body construction that need to great
care and interest to make him wright mind through capability of performing anything support
to him.
In our research we deal with the main factors in which lead to infect the child by the
creative malfunction, like the environmental and m

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 17 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Architectural Heritage of Baghdad in Ibn Al-Faqih Hamadani's Book Baghdad the City of Peace And its impact on Sustainable Development

This research shows the importance of Baghdad in the field of urban heritage and was demonstrated in the Ibn al-Fiqh al-Hamdani's book Baghdad the City of Peace in which he focused on many urban aspects and reviewing its historical importance by connecting them with modern events and the role they play in cultural and civilized construction which included: mosques, schools and markets etc. and the service providing institutions and other pillars of the Islamic cities through showing the development back then and its importance as an integral part of the urban and cultural heritage of the Islamic cities in general and Baghdad city in particular. 

In his book Baghdad the City of Peace, Ibn al-Faqih Hamadhaani

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