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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 30 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Study of Some Hormonal and Biochemical Parameters among Patients with Chronic Liver Diseases
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It has been revealed previously that chronic liver disease (CLD) may be associated to hormonal fluctuations. The current study, therefore, aimed to evaluate some hormones in CLD patients compared with non-CLD individuals. This case control study was conducted at Gastroenterology and Hepatology Teaching Hospital, Medical city, Baghdad, Iraq during December 2021 to May 2022. One hundred and twenty male patients with CLD (age:14-75 years) and 120 control males (age: 24-70 years) were involved in this study. Serum samples were taken from all individuals and were then analysed for many tests which included hormones (Cortisol, testosterone, prolactin, insulin  and thyroid stimulating hormone TSH); biochemical analysis (Prothrombin time

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 13 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Assessment of Levels of premenstrual psychological and physical Problems (Premenstrual Syndrome-PMS) of Students of the Colleges of Bab Al-Mua’dham Complex/ University of Baghdad
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Objectives: To assess levels of premenstrual psychological disorders of the students in Bab Al-Mua’dham Complex and to find out the relationship between the levels of premenstrual psychological and physical disorders and some demographic characteristics of the students. Methodology: A descriptive study was accomplished throughout the period from the 1st of October, 2015 to the 8th of July, 2016 to assess the psychological and physical problems. A purposive sample of 313 students distributed among different colleges of Bab Al-Mua’dam complex distributed as following: 82 students are from college of Arts; 79

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Study Impact of Some Factors on Daily Number of Hours Providing of Electricity in Baghdad City Using Path Analysis
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دُرِست العوامل المؤثرة في عدد ساعات تجهيز الكهرباء في مدينة بغداد، وتكونت عينة الدراسة من (365) مشاهدة يومية لعام 2018، وتمثلت بستة متغيرات استعملت في الدراسة. كان الهدف الرئيس هو دراسة العلاقة بين هذه المتغيرات، وتقدير تأثيرات المتغيرات التنبؤية في المتغير التابع (عدد ساعات تجهيز الكهرباء في مدينة بغداد). ولتحقيق ذلك استعملت نمذجة المعادلات الهيكلية/ تحليل المسار وبرنامج AMOS

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Forecasting the use of Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic Models (GARCH) Seasonality with practical application
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In this paper  has been one study of autoregressive generalized conditional heteroscedasticity models existence of the seasonal component, for the purpose applied to the daily financial data at high frequency is characterized by Heteroscedasticity seasonal conditional, it has been depending on Multiplicative seasonal Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic Models Which is symbolized by the Acronym (SGARCH) , which has proven effective expression of seasonal phenomenon as opposed to the usual GARCH models. The summarizing of the research work studying the daily data for the price of the dinar exchange rate against the dollar, has been used autocorrelation function to detect seasonal first, then was diagnosed wi

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 10 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Evaluation of Nurses’ Practices toward Safe Intravenous Chemotherapy Infusion in Baghdad City Hospitals
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Abstract Objectives: The study aims to evaluate the nurses' practices that concerning intravenous chemotherapy infusion and to find out the association between nurses' practices and their level of education, year of experiences, and training course.
Methodology: A descriptive study was conducted in Baghdad Teaching Hospital and Al Amal National Hospital for Treatment of Tumors for the purpose of evaluating the practices of nurses related to infusion of intravenous chemotherapy for the period from 20th October 2017 to 14th March 2018. The sample was randomly selected from both hospitals. Who were evaluated by using a checklist to observe their practices which consisted of two parts; the first part included the demographic information

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 13 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Evaluation of Clients’ Satisfaction towards Primary Health Care Centers Services at Baghdad City
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Objective: To evaluate the client's satisfaction about the services provided in primary health care centers in the
city of Baghdad and its impact on the improvement of services.
Methodology: A simple random sample consisting of (200) clients to primary health care centers in the city of
Baghdad, (15-20) clients for each center using a questionnaire to evaluate the client's satisfaction for the service
and the use of the direct method of interview, which lasts for (6-10) minutes.
Results: Results of the study show that the number of men visits to primary health care centers, fewer women
This indicates that the most important responsibilities of family members and private health care is the
responsibility of women than

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Study of the marketing supply chain of the fuel oil productUsing transport models
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The marketing logistic chain, as an integrated system aimed to balance the achievement of its main opposite objectives which represented in the access to the best service presented to the customer with lowest possible logistic costs especially the transportation costs, where encourages the researcher to choose the second objective as a field of this study in order to reduce the transportation costs in the final link of marketing logistic chain which related to delivering of fuel oil to the customer that falls within organizational responsibilities of the company under consideration (Oil Marketing Company) and also known in a brief name by (SOMO) through two methods, the first is by functioning quantative techniques by using trans

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 11 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Detection of Hypertension among Cardiac Diseases Inpatients at Kirkuk City Hospitals
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Objectives of the study: The main objective of the study is to assess the prevalence of hypertension among
cardiac diseases patients and to fiend out relation ship between hypertension and cardiovascular diseases.
Methodology: A descriptive study, using interviewer and questionnaire technique was conducted on cardiac
diseases inpatients of clinic unite at Kirkuk and Azady hospitals from 17th ,June ,2012 to 1st, March , 2013.
Non – probability (purposive) sample of (148) adult patients, (81) females and (67) males with heart disease are
selected from inpatients of clinic unite at Kirkuk and Azady hospitals at kirkuk city. Questionnaire was
developed to assess the items which are related to heart disease patient's (Dise

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 15 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Screening for Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder at Elementary Schools in Baghdad City
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Objective(s): To determine the prevalence of ADHD among elementary school pupils; identify the association between pupil's level of ADHD and age, etc., and investigate the differences in pupils ADHD based on gender, and grade.

Methodology: A descriptive study was conducted on elementary school pupils. The study started from the period of 16th of September 2019 to the 1st of October 2020. A cluster sample of 800 pupils was selected. The questionnaire was constructed and developed and include two parts: the first part includes the pupil's general information and the second part includes scale of ADHD prevalence.

Results: The results of the present study indicated that 38(4.

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A field study of the problems of queues at some checkpoints in the city of Baghdad
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Abstract

Due to the momentum of winning in the streets of the city of Baghdad as a result of the large number of checkpoints so felt researcher to conduct a field visit to find out the main reasons that led to this congestion and to find practical solutions to mitigate wastage winning the arrival time citizen to where you want the least possible time.

This research aims to overcome the difficulties experienced by citizens to reach their places of work and reduce waste at the time of service and waiting time as well as reduce the cost of waiting.

Has emerged study a set of conclusions, including the use of model queue (G / G / C) and the mome

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