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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 30 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Molecular and Immunological Detection of Hepatitis C Virus in Patients with Chronic Renal Failure
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Due to its association with hepatocellular carcinoma and being one of the ten most common malignancies worldwide, hepatitis C viral infection has become a severe public health concern. Therefore, establishing an accurate, reliable and sensitive diagnostic test for this infection is strongly advised. Real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) has been created to achieve this purpose. The current study was established to investigate the hepatitis C virus among Iraqi patients with chronic renal failure and to detect the virus immunologically by the fourth generation enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay technique and molecularly by real-time PCR. As a result, out of 50 patients with chronic renal failure undergoing dialysis, 39 patients tes

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Publication Date
Wed Jul 30 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Interleukine-6 Level in Saliva of Patients with Chronic Periodontitis: A Case-Control Study
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Background:Periodontal diseases are infectious diseases in which periodontalpathogens trigger chronic inflammatory and immune responses. Interleukine-6 is a multifunctional cytokine playing a central role in inflammation and tissue injury.The aim of the study IS to determine the level of Interleukin-6(IL-6) in saliva of patients with chronic periodontitis compared to healthy subjects. Materials and Methods:The total subjects of the present study is 60, divided into 3 groups; 20 patients with chronic periodontitis with pocket depth(PD ≥4 mm)(group I), 20 patients with pocket depth(PD <4 mm) with clinical attachment loss (group II), and 20 healthy controls with pocket probing depth (PPD ≤ 3 mm) without clinical attachment loss (g

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 01 2018
Journal Name
International Journal Of Health Sciences
Molecular assessment of some cardiovascular genetic risk factors among Iraqi patients with ischemic heart diseases
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Abstract Objective: The underlying molecular basis of ischemic heart diseases (IHDs) has not yet been studied among Iraqi people. This study determined the frequency and types of some cardiovascular genetic risk factors among Iraqi patients with IHDs. Methods: This is a cross-sectional study recruiting 56 patients with acute IHD during a 2-month period excluding patients >50 years and patients with documented hyperlipidemia. Their ages ranged between 18 and 50 years; males were 54 and females were only 2. Peripheral blood samples were aspirated from all patients for troponin I and DNA testing. Molecular analysis to detect 12 common cardiovascular genetic risk factors using CVD StripAssay® (ViennaLab Diagnostics GmbH, Austria) was performed

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Publication Date
Wed Nov 07 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Study of some risk factors and C - reactive protein levels among patients with cardiovascular diseases
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Objective : To study the effect of some risk factors like age, smoking and Diabetes mellitus (DM) among patients with
certain cardiovascular diseases (Angina pectoris and Myocardial infarction), in addition to the assessment of the Creactive
protein (CRP) in the sera of those patients.
Methodology: The study was carried out on (100) subjects who were hospitalized in the Iraqi Center of heart Diseases
in Baghdad city and were suffering from Myocardial InfarcƟon (MI) (16) and Angina Pectoris (AP) (79) or from both (5)
over a period from September 2009 to June 2010. The results of paƟents were compared with those of (30) healthy
and age-matched individuals as a control group. Data were obtained from patients who were alr

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Balancing the Multi Assembly line Using Ranked Positional Weight and COMSOAL Algorithms: Case Study at the Sewing line Factory (7) /the General Company for Leather Industries (GCLI/ Baghdad)
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      The problem of multi assembly line balancing appears as one of the most prominent and complex type of problem. The research problem of this dissertation is concerned with choosing the suitable method that includes the nature of the processes of the multi assembly type of the sewing line at factory no. (7). The State Company for Leather Manufacturing. The sewing line currently suffers from idle times at work stations which resulted in low production levels that do not meet the production plans. The authors have devised a flexible simulation model which uses the uniform distribution to generate task time for each shoe type produced by the factory. The simulation of the multi assembly line was based on assigni

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Publication Date
Fri Oct 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Forecasting the financial failure of Islamic banks using the Altman model, ---- springate model and ---- Sherrod model / an analytical study in Islamic banks listed on the Iraq Stock Exchange
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Profit is a goal sought by all banks because it brings them income and guarantees them survival and continuity, and on the other hand, facing commitments without financial crisis. Hence the idea of research in his quest to build scientific tools and means that can help bank management in particular, investors, lenders and others to predict financial failure and to detect early financial failures. The research has produced a number of conclusions, the most important of which is that all Islamic banks sample a safe case of financial failure under the Altman model, while according to the Springate model all Islamic banks sample a search for a financial failure except the Islamic Bank of Noor Iraq for Investment and Finance )BINI(. A

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2016
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Risk factors for autism in Baghdad city
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Background: Autism is a complex developmental disability that typically appears during the first three years of life. Autism affects the normal development of the brain in the areas of social interaction and communication skills.Objectives: To identify risk factors for Autism among a sample of autistic children in Baghdad city. Type of the study: this is a case – control, study. Methods: This study was conducted during the period of data collection extended from first of November 2010 until the first of April 2011,The total number of children involved was 100children with diagnosis of autism. Handred children who are free from autism were taken as the control sample. Results: there was a significant association between paternal age and

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 12 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Assessment of Weight Gain Post Treatment with Biological Compounds among A Sample of Patients Attending Baghdad Teaching Hospital
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Objective: to evaluate the increase in weight after biological agents and the association of weight gain with the body mass index among a sample of patients attending Baghdad Teaching Hospital Methods: A prospective study is carried out in Baghdad teaching hospital biological units and outpatient clinic of rheumatology for a period of one year starting On April 2015 and ending on March 2016. 120 patients were included in the study 40 psoriatic arthritis .40 ankylosing spondylitis and 40 rheumatoid arthritis Results : The study findings indicate that significance differences are seen regarding weight gain and b

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 09 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Succession of Urban Structures of the City of Baghdad
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The research shed light on the historic evolution of Baghdad through its long, expansive history. The starting point focuses on the geographic characteristics, and the nature of its habitation, prior to laying the circular plan of Baghdad. Then the research proceeds to cover the stage of building the round city of Baghdad. The research continue to cover the expansion and sequential growth across the banks of Tigris river.
A concentrated attention is devoted to analyses the morphological, geographical and above all the makeup of present day city of Baghdad, pinpointing the apathetic plans, decisions, and actions which completely disfigured the image, and tradition of the old city of Baghdad, behind the delusive slogans of “comprehens

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 07 2010
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Free Fatty Acids and Biochemical Changes in Iraqi patients with Chronic Renal Failure
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Chronic renal failure (CRF) is progressive irreversible destruction of kidney tissue by disease which, if not treated by dialysis or transplant, will result in patient's death. This study was carried out on 30 patients (17 male and 13 female) with chronic renal failure. The aim of this research was studied the changes in the level of total protein ,albumin, calcium ,ionized calcium, phosphorous , iron ,ALP, LDH ,CK and FFA in patients with CRF before and after hemodialysis .The obtained results have been compared with 30 healthy subjects as control group (18male and 12 female). The results showed that there was significant increase in the level of calcium ,ionized calcium, phosphorous ,iron ,ALP,LDH,CK and FFA ,while there was a signifi

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