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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 25 2026
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Salivary IgA in chronic kidney disease patients undergoing hemodialysis in Missan governorate
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Background: Chronic kidney disease is a worldwide health problem, with adverse outcomes of cardiovascular disease and premature death, can be divided into five stages, depending on how severe the damage is to the kidneys, or the level of decrease in kidney function, the final stage of chronic kidney disease is called end-stage renal disease, salivary immunoglobulin A is the main immunoglobulin found in mucous secretions, including tears, saliva, colostrum and secretions from the genitourinary tract gastrointestinal tract, prostate and respiratory epithelium . It is also found in small amounts in blood.This study aimedto measuresalivary flow rate and salivaryimmunoglobulin Alevels in chronic kidney disease patients on hemodialysis treatment

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 09 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Evaluation of Pedestrians Walking Speeds in Baghdad City
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This research examines the factors which influence pedestrian's walking speed in Baghdad. the variations in walking speed of pedestrians are related to pedestrian characteristics such as gender, age group, and clothing traditions. Using the established methodology, the counts of pedestrians were performed using manual and video counting. The case study was performed in two streets located in a highly crowded commercial zone at the city center of Baghdad: Al-Karada Dakhel and Al- Sina’a Street. Data were subjected to statistical analysis using IBM SPSS Statistics 19 software. It has been found that Iraqi pedestrians walk slower than other pedestrians in the developed countries or in the region with minimum walking speed of 29.85 m/min.

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Analysis of Models (NAGARCH & APGARCH) by Using Simulations
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Simulation experiments are a means of solving in many fields, and it is the process of designing a model of the real system in order to follow it and identify its behavior through certain models and formulas written according to a repeating software style with a number of iterations. The aim of this study is to build a model  that deals with the behavior suffering from the state of (heteroskedasticity) by studying the models (APGARCH & NAGARCH) using (Gaussian) and (Non-Gaussian) distributions for different sample sizes (500,1000,1500,2000) through the stage of time series analysis (identification , estimation, diagnostic checking and prediction). The data was generated using the estimations of the parameters resulting f

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 01 2018
Journal Name
International Journal Of Health Sciences
Molecular assessment of some cardiovascular genetic risk factors among Iraqi patients with ischemic heart diseases
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Abstract Objective: The underlying molecular basis of ischemic heart diseases (IHDs) has not yet been studied among Iraqi people. This study determined the frequency and types of some cardiovascular genetic risk factors among Iraqi patients with IHDs. Methods: This is a cross-sectional study recruiting 56 patients with acute IHD during a 2-month period excluding patients >50 years and patients with documented hyperlipidemia. Their ages ranged between 18 and 50 years; males were 54 and females were only 2. Peripheral blood samples were aspirated from all patients for troponin I and DNA testing. Molecular analysis to detect 12 common cardiovascular genetic risk factors using CVD StripAssay® (ViennaLab Diagnostics GmbH, Austria) was performed

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Publication Date
Wed Nov 07 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Study of some risk factors and C - reactive protein levels among patients with cardiovascular diseases
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Objective : To study the effect of some risk factors like age, smoking and Diabetes mellitus (DM) among patients with
certain cardiovascular diseases (Angina pectoris and Myocardial infarction), in addition to the assessment of the Creactive
protein (CRP) in the sera of those patients.
Methodology: The study was carried out on (100) subjects who were hospitalized in the Iraqi Center of heart Diseases
in Baghdad city and were suffering from Myocardial InfarcƟon (MI) (16) and Angina Pectoris (AP) (79) or from both (5)
over a period from September 2009 to June 2010. The results of paƟents were compared with those of (30) healthy
and age-matched individuals as a control group. Data were obtained from patients who were alr

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 02 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Mothers Information Regarding Asthmatic Child Care in Kirkuk City
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Objectives: To assess the information of mothers regarding asthmatic child care, and to find out the relationship between information of mothers and some of demographic characteristic such as age of mothers, Level of education, and away of child feeding. Methodology: Quantitative design (a descriptive study) was conducted in pediatric hospital in Kirkuk city from the period of first of July 2011 to the end of March 2012. To achieve the objectives of the study, non probability sample of (50) mothers having asthmatic children who attend to the pediatric hospital. The data are collected through utilization

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 27 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Effectiveness of an Instructional Program Concerning Non-Pharmacological Guideline on Controlling Essential Hypertension among Patients at AL-Sader Hospital in AL-Najaf AL-Ashraf City
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Objective: The aims of present study to detect the effectiveness of instruction program of non-pharmacological guideline on blood pressure and laboratory test.

 

Methodology: A pre-experimental study was conducted in Al-Sader Teaching Hospital   from 8th of September 2019 to 25th of May 2020, in order to find out the effectiveness of instruction program concerning non-pharmacological guideline on controlling essential hypertension among patients. A non- probability (purposive sample) of 50 patients with essential hypertension is selected. Those patients are already diagnosed with Essential Hypertension

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 21 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
Spatial analysis of primary and secondary education se rvices in the city of Ramadi
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The researchers aim of this research to analyze the reality of educational services in the city of Ramadi in order to reveal the efficiency of the spatial distribution of schools at the level of residential neighborhoods and the requirements of the population, based on the standards and indicators for this service.

The research problem related to the educational function of the city of Ramadi was formulated by asking about the efficiency of the spatial distribution of educational services and whether there is a balance in the distribution of schools to residential neighborhoods in a way that meets the requirements of the population, and in order to answer the research problem, the research hypothesis was formulated that there is

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 19 2015
Journal Name
Spie Proceedings
Role of testosterone in resistance to development of stress-related vascular diseases in male and female organisms: models of hypertension and ulcer bleeding
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Publication Date
Fri Mar 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Balancing the Multi Assembly line Using Ranked Positional Weight and COMSOAL Algorithms: Case Study at the Sewing line Factory (7) /the General Company for Leather Industries (GCLI/ Baghdad)
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      The problem of multi assembly line balancing appears as one of the most prominent and complex type of problem. The research problem of this dissertation is concerned with choosing the suitable method that includes the nature of the processes of the multi assembly type of the sewing line at factory no. (7). The State Company for Leather Manufacturing. The sewing line currently suffers from idle times at work stations which resulted in low production levels that do not meet the production plans. The authors have devised a flexible simulation model which uses the uniform distribution to generate task time for each shoe type produced by the factory. The simulation of the multi assembly line was based on assigni

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