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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
The preferences of planning bridges of Al-Mosul city post war
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The study started from the problems of wars and the damage that result from deterioration and destruction of infrastructure and the absence of planning and urban reconstruction. The study aims to address the condition of the bad destroyed bridges that have paralyzed traffic from the right and left sides of the city of Mosul. The study is based on the assumption that the reconstruction of bridges will improve the transportation network in the city of Mosul. The study relied on several approaches, including: the historical approach by reviewing global and local experiences and the descriptive approach to review the reality of the state of Mosul after the liberation process, through maps and the analytical approach through statistics and da

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 30 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Civilizational Manifestations in the City of Astrabath in the Sixth Century AH
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The current study is concerned with presenting a descriptive study of the history of the city of Astrabath in the sixth century AH. The problem that the research tried to answer is represented in the investigation of historical news, and the study of the most prominent cultural aspects which characterizing that city. The research also aims to reach the geographical location of that city, its name and its suburbs. The importance of the research lies in the knowledge of everything related to the role of the civilization of Astrabath, as well as tracing the entry of the Arabs to it, so that it became a cultural, economic and scientific center and its historical role in the sixth century AH. The research reminde us with the scientific role o

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 15 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Periodontal health status of patients with Maxillary Chronic Rhinosinusitis (Part 1: Clinical study)
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Background: Periodontal diseases (PD) are inflammatory conditions of the tissues supporting the teeth, most often gingivitis and periodontitis. Maxillary chronic rhinosinusitis (MCRS) is the inflammation of the maxillary sinuses which is last for at least 12 consecutive weeks duration. Aims of study: Distribution of periodontal diseases among patients with Maxillary chronic rhinosinusitis according to gender and age. Materials and methods: Males and females subjects (25-45 years), divided into two groups; 150 patients suffer from MCRS and 130 subjects without MCRS. Clinical periodontal parameters; Plaque Index (PL.I), Gingival Index (G.I), Probing Pocket Depth (PPD), Clinical Attachment Level (CAL) and Bleeding On Probing (BOP) recorded f

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 20 2020
Journal Name
Biochemical And Cellular Archives
MOLECULAR INVESTIGATION OF EPSTEIN-BARR VIRUS IN IRAQI PATIENTS WITH CHRONIC LYMPHOCYTIC LEUKEMIA
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Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is one type of leukemia that arises from lymphocytes' progenitor cell in the Bone marrow, it affects individuals over the age of 50 years in both genders. In Iraq, leukemia affected 1532 (847 males and 683 females) according to the latest announced statistics of the Iraqi Cancer Registry Center in 2012. Chronic lymphocytic leukemia may occur due to several genetic causes, such as chromosomal aberrations and gene mutations, or exposure to carcinogens and mutagens (radiation, chemicals, and oncogenic viruses). The most famous virus is the Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), which is a gamma herpesvirus that infects more than 90% of individuals. Its infection is mostly a latent infection, and EBV remains latent in memo

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 30 2011
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Etiologies of chronic cough in adult patients: Is it hard to be diagnosed?
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Background: Chronic cough is often the key
symptom not only of chronic pulmonary diseases
but for other important extrapulmonary
pathologies, in particular upper airway and
gastrointestinal diseases.
Objective: This study was designed to
determine the etiology of chronic cough and the
usefulness of the available diagnostic tests in
reaching its causes.
Methods: One hundred patients presenting with
chronic cough at Baghdad Teaching Hospital
Outpatient Clinic were enrolled in this study. The
patients underwent a full clinical interview,
physical examination with indicated diagnostic
test(s) (such as chest x ray, bronchoscope, PFT,
GIT study, sinus X ray or CT).
Results: An etiology of chronic

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2018
Journal Name
Iosr Journal Of Pharmacy And Biological Sciences
Seroprevalence of Hepatitis B markers in Iraqi patients with chronic Hepatitis B virus
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To determine the seroprevalence of hepatitis B markers in chronic hepatitis B patients, 75 patients with chronic hepatitis B virus of ages (8-70) years have been investigated and compared with 50 apparently healthy individuals. All the studied groups were carried out to measure (HBsAg), (HBsAb), (HBeAg), (HBeAb), and (Total HBcAb) by Enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) technique. The percentage distribution of HBsAg was (86.67%) and HBsAb was (1.33%) in sera of CHB patients and there were a highly significant differences (P<0.01) when compared between studied groups, while, the percentage distribution of HBeAg was (22.67%) in sera of CHB patients and the significant represent the difference in distribution of HBeAg as infection but no

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Publication Date
Mon Jul 01 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of The Faculty Of Medicine Baghdad
Evaluation of some Biochemical and Hematological Parameters in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease
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Background: Chronic kidney disease is a condition that results from an indefinite change in the structure and function of the kidneys. A slow, steady progression characterizes it and is irreversible.  Objectives: This study aims to evaluate the findings of certain biochemical and hematological tests in samples from Iraqi CKD patients.  Methods: This study included 90 subjects, where 70 patients with chronic kidney disease and 20 healthy individuals. Blood samples were collected from the patients during their visits to Ghazi Al-Hariri Surgical Specialties' Hospital- Medical City, Baghdad, Iraq. Age, sex and body mass index were assessed for each participant followed by renal function tests [serum blood urea, creatinine, uric acid a

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 14 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Monitoring Indicators for Maternal, Newborn and Child Health at Sub Primary Health Care Centers in Baghdad City: An Evaluative Study
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Objectives: The study aims to evaluate the application of monitoring indicators for maternal, newborn and
child health through the evaluation of impact and coverage health indicators and to evaluate the usefulness of the
application of these indicators at sub primary health care centers in Baghdad City.
Methodology: A descriptive comparative design, which is using the evaluation approach, has been steered at
Sub Primary Health Centers of Baghdad City in order to evaluate the application; impact and coverage, and the
usefulness of monitoring indicators for maternal, newborn and child health from December 4th 2017 to April 29th
2018. A multistage, "non-probability" convenient, sample is selected for the present study. A t

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A Comparison Between Maximum Likelihood Method And Bayesian Method For Estimating Some Non-Homogeneous Poisson Processes Models
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Abstract

The Non - Homogeneous Poisson  process is considered  as one of the statistical subjects which had an importance in other sciences and a large application in different areas as waiting raws and rectifiable systems method , computer and communication systems and the theory of reliability and many other, also it used in modeling the phenomenon that occurred by unfixed way over time (all events that changed by time).

This research deals with some of the basic concepts that are related to the Non - Homogeneous Poisson process , This research carried out two models of the Non - Homogeneous Poisson process which are the power law model , and Musa –okumto ,   to estimate th

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Developing System of Solid Waste Management (Applied Research in Hilla City)
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Abstract

The research aims to stand on the practice of operations management of solid waste in the city of Hilla, carried out by the mayor of Hilla Directorate - solid and the environment Waste Division, through field visits and personal interview to officials of the municipal departments and units of its data collection and information related to solid waste, and assess the current status of the processes of collection and transport waste through the questionnaire that had been prepared for citizens and employees, the search reach a set of conclusions was the most important, operations carried out by the municipality of Hilla Directorate only limited to two (collection, transportation and disposal of wa

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