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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Analysis of Models (NAGARCH & APGARCH) by Using Simulations
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Simulation experiments are a means of solving in many fields, and it is the process of designing a model of the real system in order to follow it and identify its behavior through certain models and formulas written according to a repeating software style with a number of iterations. The aim of this study is to build a model  that deals with the behavior suffering from the state of (heteroskedasticity) by studying the models (APGARCH & NAGARCH) using (Gaussian) and (Non-Gaussian) distributions for different sample sizes (500,1000,1500,2000) through the stage of time series analysis (identification , estimation, diagnostic checking and prediction). The data was generated using the estimations of the parameters resulting f

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
The preferences of planning bridges of Al-Mosul city post war
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The study started from the problems of wars and the damage that result from deterioration and destruction of infrastructure and the absence of planning and urban reconstruction. The study aims to address the condition of the bad destroyed bridges that have paralyzed traffic from the right and left sides of the city of Mosul. The study is based on the assumption that the reconstruction of bridges will improve the transportation network in the city of Mosul. The study relied on several approaches, including: the historical approach by reviewing global and local experiences and the descriptive approach to review the reality of the state of Mosul after the liberation process, through maps and the analytical approach through statistics and da

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Publication Date
Mon May 08 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Evaluation the Effect of Catechins Extract Intake for Iraqi Male Patients With Cardiovascular Diseases CVD
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  Cardiovascular diseases CVD are responsible for the majority of death in many countries, the term cardiovascular disease CVD includes several diseases such as: coronary artery diseases (angina, myocardial infaraction MI, atherosclerosis) and stroke. These diseases cause elevation of TC, TG, LDL, VLDL, and MDA levels in plasma and decrease of HDL levels and PON activity in plasma, because of elevation in lipid peroxidation (LPO) activity.  Catechins is a water extract of green tea composed of: (-)epicatchin EC, ECG, EGC, EGCG, (+) catechin C and GC, these compounds play great roles against chronic diseases such as CVD. The effect of catechins extract on the preceding biochemical parameters was investigated in 40 volunteer male

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 01 2018
Journal Name
International Journal Of Health Sciences
Molecular assessment of some cardiovascular genetic risk factors among Iraqi patients with ischemic heart diseases
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Abstract Objective: The underlying molecular basis of ischemic heart diseases (IHDs) has not yet been studied among Iraqi people. This study determined the frequency and types of some cardiovascular genetic risk factors among Iraqi patients with IHDs. Methods: This is a cross-sectional study recruiting 56 patients with acute IHD during a 2-month period excluding patients >50 years and patients with documented hyperlipidemia. Their ages ranged between 18 and 50 years; males were 54 and females were only 2. Peripheral blood samples were aspirated from all patients for troponin I and DNA testing. Molecular analysis to detect 12 common cardiovascular genetic risk factors using CVD StripAssay® (ViennaLab Diagnostics GmbH, Austria) was performed

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Publication Date
Wed Nov 07 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Study of some risk factors and C - reactive protein levels among patients with cardiovascular diseases
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Objective : To study the effect of some risk factors like age, smoking and Diabetes mellitus (DM) among patients with
certain cardiovascular diseases (Angina pectoris and Myocardial infarction), in addition to the assessment of the Creactive
protein (CRP) in the sera of those patients.
Methodology: The study was carried out on (100) subjects who were hospitalized in the Iraqi Center of heart Diseases
in Baghdad city and were suffering from Myocardial InfarcƟon (MI) (16) and Angina Pectoris (AP) (79) or from both (5)
over a period from September 2009 to June 2010. The results of paƟents were compared with those of (30) healthy
and age-matched individuals as a control group. Data were obtained from patients who were alr

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 30 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Civilizational Manifestations in the City of Astrabath in the Sixth Century AH
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The current study is concerned with presenting a descriptive study of the history of the city of Astrabath in the sixth century AH. The problem that the research tried to answer is represented in the investigation of historical news, and the study of the most prominent cultural aspects which characterizing that city. The research also aims to reach the geographical location of that city, its name and its suburbs. The importance of the research lies in the knowledge of everything related to the role of the civilization of Astrabath, as well as tracing the entry of the Arabs to it, so that it became a cultural, economic and scientific center and its historical role in the sixth century AH. The research reminde us with the scientific role o

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Intelligent Systems
Trip generation modeling for a selected sector in Baghdad city using the artificial neural network
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Abstract<p>This study is planned with the aim of constructing models that can be used to forecast trip production in the Al-Karada region in Baghdad city incorporating the socioeconomic features, through the use of various statistical approaches to the modeling of trip generation, such as artificial neural network (ANN) and multiple linear regression (MLR). The research region was split into 11 zones to accomplish the study aim. Forms were issued based on the needed sample size of 1,170. Only 1,050 forms with responses were received, giving a response rate of 89.74% for the research region. The collected data were processed using the ANN technique in MATLAB v20. The same database was utilized to</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Thu Mar 19 2015
Journal Name
Spie Proceedings
Role of testosterone in resistance to development of stress-related vascular diseases in male and female organisms: models of hypertension and ulcer bleeding
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Publication Date
Mon Aug 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Developing System of Solid Waste Management (Applied Research in Hilla City)
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Abstract

The research aims to stand on the practice of operations management of solid waste in the city of Hilla, carried out by the mayor of Hilla Directorate - solid and the environment Waste Division, through field visits and personal interview to officials of the municipal departments and units of its data collection and information related to solid waste, and assess the current status of the processes of collection and transport waste through the questionnaire that had been prepared for citizens and employees, the search reach a set of conclusions was the most important, operations carried out by the municipality of Hilla Directorate only limited to two (collection, transportation and disposal of wa

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 14 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Monitoring Indicators for Maternal, Newborn and Child Health at Sub Primary Health Care Centers in Baghdad City: An Evaluative Study
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Objectives: The study aims to evaluate the application of monitoring indicators for maternal, newborn and
child health through the evaluation of impact and coverage health indicators and to evaluate the usefulness of the
application of these indicators at sub primary health care centers in Baghdad City.
Methodology: A descriptive comparative design, which is using the evaluation approach, has been steered at
Sub Primary Health Centers of Baghdad City in order to evaluate the application; impact and coverage, and the
usefulness of monitoring indicators for maternal, newborn and child health from December 4th 2017 to April 29th
2018. A multistage, "non-probability" convenient, sample is selected for the present study. A t

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