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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 19 2015
Journal Name
Spie Proceedings
Role of testosterone in resistance to development of stress-related vascular diseases in male and female organisms: models of hypertension and ulcer bleeding
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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2016
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Risk factors for autism in Baghdad city
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Background: Autism is a complex developmental disability that typically appears during the first three years of life. Autism affects the normal development of the brain in the areas of social interaction and communication skills.Objectives: To identify risk factors for Autism among a sample of autistic children in Baghdad city. Type of the study: this is a case – control, study. Methods: This study was conducted during the period of data collection extended from first of November 2010 until the first of April 2011,The total number of children involved was 100children with diagnosis of autism. Handred children who are free from autism were taken as the control sample. Results: there was a significant association between paternal age and

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Analysis of Models (NAGARCH & APGARCH) by Using Simulations
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Simulation experiments are a means of solving in many fields, and it is the process of designing a model of the real system in order to follow it and identify its behavior through certain models and formulas written according to a repeating software style with a number of iterations. The aim of this study is to build a model  that deals with the behavior suffering from the state of (heteroskedasticity) by studying the models (APGARCH & NAGARCH) using (Gaussian) and (Non-Gaussian) distributions for different sample sizes (500,1000,1500,2000) through the stage of time series analysis (identification , estimation, diagnostic checking and prediction). The data was generated using the estimations of the parameters resulting f

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 15 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Evaluation of leukocytes cells types counts in blood from patients with different severities of periodontal diseases
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Background: Periodontal diseases are inflammatory disorders caused by the accumulation of oral biofilm and the host response to this accumulation which characterized by exaggerated leukocytes and neutrophils attraction to the sites of inflammation by chemoattractants which are a very important part of the pathogenesis of periodontal diseases. This study aimed to determine and compare the clinical periodontal parameters and the leukocyte cell types in the peripheral blood between patients with gingivitis and periodontitis with different severities compared to healthy controls. Materials and methods: This study included 150 male subjects aged between 35-50 years. They were divided into three groups: gingivitis group (n=30), periodontitis p

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 09 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Succession of Urban Structures of the City of Baghdad
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The research shed light on the historic evolution of Baghdad through its long, expansive history. The starting point focuses on the geographic characteristics, and the nature of its habitation, prior to laying the circular plan of Baghdad. Then the research proceeds to cover the stage of building the round city of Baghdad. The research continue to cover the expansion and sequential growth across the banks of Tigris river.
A concentrated attention is devoted to analyses the morphological, geographical and above all the makeup of present day city of Baghdad, pinpointing the apathetic plans, decisions, and actions which completely disfigured the image, and tradition of the old city of Baghdad, behind the delusive slogans of “comprehens

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
The Quantitative Analysis To Assess The Efficiency Of The Transport Network In Sader City
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     This research examines the quantitative analysis to assess the efficiency of the transport network in Sadr City, where the study area suffers from a large traffic movement  for the variability of traffic flow and intensity at peak hours as a result of inside traffic and outside of it, especially in the neighborhoods of population with  economic concentration.                                                           &n

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 01 2026
Journal Name
Open Journal Of Medicinal Chemistry
Relationship between chronic hepatitis B virus and pathogenecitity of Celiac disease in Iraqi patients
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the association between celiac disease and viral infection

Publication Date
Mon Oct 12 2026
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Interleukine-6 Level in Saliva of Patients with Chronic Periodontitis: A Case-Control Study
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Background:Periodontal diseases are infectious diseases in which periodontalpathogens trigger chronic inflammatory and immune responses. Interleukine-6 is a multifunctional cytokine playing a central role in inflammation and tissue injury.The aim of the study IS to determine the level of Interleukin-6(IL-6) in saliva of patients with chronic periodontitis compared to healthy subjects. Materials and Methods:The total subjects of the present study is 60, divided into 3 groups; 20 patients with chronic periodontitis with pocket depth(PD ≥4 mm)(group I), 20 patients with pocket depth(PD <4 mm) with clinical attachment loss (group II), and 20 healthy controls with pocket probing depth (PPD ≤ 3 mm) without clinical attachment loss (g

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 30 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Molecular and Immunological Detection of Hepatitis C Virus in Patients with Chronic Renal Failure
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Due to its association with hepatocellular carcinoma and being one of the ten most common malignancies worldwide, hepatitis C viral infection has become a severe public health concern. Therefore, establishing an accurate, reliable and sensitive diagnostic test for this infection is strongly advised. Real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) has been created to achieve this purpose. The current study was established to investigate the hepatitis C virus among Iraqi patients with chronic renal failure and to detect the virus immunologically by the fourth generation enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay technique and molecularly by real-time PCR. As a result, out of 50 patients with chronic renal failure undergoing dialysis, 39 patients tes

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Publication Date
Wed May 10 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
The role of historical memory on social and Cultural mobility of Hilla Old city
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As long as the place in which a person lives has a meaning and temporal dimensions , memory is the main axis of these dimensions , today , city centers and old historical sectors of cities are abandoned , and began to turn into slums , the contradiction between old and historical sectors led cities to lose their identity while people lost their sense of belongingness to the old sectors where their ancestors used to live . The old city of Hilla used to have social , historical and cultural role on determining the identity . The study problem can be summarized as the ( lack of studies regarding the impact of historical memory related to Hilla old city on social and cultural mobility ) , the study hypothesis claims that the social , histori

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