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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 07 2010
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Free Fatty Acids and Biochemical Changes in Iraqi patients with Chronic Renal Failure
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Chronic renal failure (CRF) is progressive irreversible destruction of kidney tissue by disease which, if not treated by dialysis or transplant, will result in patient's death. This study was carried out on 30 patients (17 male and 13 female) with chronic renal failure. The aim of this research was studied the changes in the level of total protein ,albumin, calcium ,ionized calcium, phosphorous , iron ,ALP, LDH ,CK and FFA in patients with CRF before and after hemodialysis .The obtained results have been compared with 30 healthy subjects as control group (18male and 12 female). The results showed that there was significant increase in the level of calcium ,ionized calcium, phosphorous ,iron ,ALP,LDH,CK and FFA ,while there was a signifi

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 01 2023
Journal Name
Biochemical And Cellular Archives
Interleukin-32(IL-32) gene expression in Iraqi chronic hepatitis B virus patients
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Hepatitis B infection is a prominent infectious disease caused by hepatitis B virus (HBV), which infect liver and is considered as the main cause of liver cirrhosis, fibrosis and liver cancer worldwide. A pro-inflammatory cytokine Interleukin32 is believed to have a role in chronic HBV infections. Since its role in CHB infections is remain unclear, this study was done to detect IL-32 gene expression in CHB patients in order to identify its exact role. A total number of 110 blood samples were collected from Gastroenterology and Hepatology Teaching Hospital in Baghdad Medical City from CHB patients for both males and females with different age groups according to the research ethics form then sent to Central Public Health Laboratory (CPHL),

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 10 2018
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Life style modification in the management of hypertension in a sample of hypertensive patients attending Primary Health Care centers at Baghdad city
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Background: Modifications of life style are often critically important to adequately control excising hypertension.

Objective: :to determine the source of information regarding hypertension and lifestyle modification practices in the management of hypertension in a sample of Iraqi hypertensive patients.

Type of the study: Across-sectional study.:

Methods:  The study was conducted over a period of two months during November and December 2015 at Primary Health Care center of Baghdad Al-GidedaAwaland Bab Al Mudhum primary health care centers. The sample included 219 hypertensive patients (102 females and 117males).  They were subjected to a

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 12 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Evaluation of Secondary Schools Students' Exposure to Risk Factors in Al-Najaf City
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Objective: The study aim to evaluate secondary schools students' exposure to risk factors in Al-Najaf City. Methodology: Descriptive study conducted in Al- Najaf City/Iraq on students at secondary schools, those aged (12-24) years old, for the period from the 13ed of November 2015 and up to 4ed of August 2015. The sample included secondary school from those schools . Data is collected through a constructed questionnaire, reliability and students (intermediate and secondary) (540) student; (270) male and (270) females who are selected randomly content validity process has been determined for the instrument. Dat

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Publication Date
Fri Nov 09 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Review of Histopathological Diagnoses of One Year Appendectomy Specimens in Sulaimani City
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Objective: To review and see the pattern of histopathological diagnoses of one year appendectomy specimens.
Methodology: This retrospective study was carried in Sulaimani Teaching Hospital over the period of one year (from 1st
of January to 31st of December 2009). All pathological reports were reviewed retrospectively for patient’s age, sex,
histopathological diagnosis and operative findings (if present). Histopathological diagnoses then were classified into
either positive or negative for acute inflammation. Any associated findings or any surgical specimen removed with the
appendix was recorded. The obtained data were analyzed by using the statistical package social sciences (SPSS) version
19; with Chi square to test

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 30 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Hepatocellular Carcinoma Prediction and early Diagnosis of Hepatitis B and C viral infection using miR-122 and miR-223 in a sample of Iraqi patients.
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Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the third most common cause of cancer-related death. Therefore, it is critical for researchers to understand molecular biology in greater depth.  In several diseases including cancer, abnormal miRNA expression has been linked to apoptosis, proliferation, differentiation, and metastasis. Many miRNAs have been studied in relation to cancer, including miR-122, miR-223, and others. Hepatitis B and C viruses are the most important global risk factors for HCC. This study is intended to test whether serum miRNAs serve as a potential biomarker for both HCC and viral infections HBV and C. The expression of miRNA in 64 serum samples was analyzed by RT-qPCR. Compared to healthy volunteers, HCC patients' sera expre

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Publication Date
Fri May 15 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
Preservation of heritage markets within an integrated framework to preserve the urban heritage in the historical centers of cities (selected models and experiments)
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This research discusses the rehabilitation of heritage markets in the historical centers of Islamic Arab cities and their use in the field of cultural tourism as one of the most important tourist attractions and the subsequent revival of the national economy in addition to preserving the urban heritage as these markets part of the historical centers of cities. The research also discusses the preservation of the continuity of heritage markets as a product of cultural heritage value within an integrated framework to preserve the urban heritage in the historic centers of cities. The study then reviews a number of experiences of Arab and Islamic countries in the field of preserving and rehabilitating heritage markets, which qualify them to b

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Publication Date
Fri Nov 09 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Assessment of Pregnant Women's Knowledge about Tetanus Toxoid Vaccination in Karbala City
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Objectives of the study: Assess pregnant women's knowledge about tetanus toxoid vaccination, to find out the
relationship between pregnant women's knowledge and some variables which included: (age, level of
education, occupational status, socio-economic level, gravidity, parity, following visits of antenatal care,
tetanus toxoid vaccination coverage).
Methods and Materials: Descriptive analytic study conducted on multistage probabilistic sample of 130
pregnant women during period from 30th January 2012 to the 24th April 2013 was carried out in the six primary
health care centers at Karbala city. The questionnaire was consisted of four parts which include of: sociodemographic
characteristics, reproductive information,

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 01 2015
Journal Name
World Journal Of Experimental Biosciences
Evaluation of anti-Helicobacter pylori antibodies level in sera of patients with chronic hepatitis B
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The relationship between chronic hepatitis B virus and Helicobacter pylori infection was evaluated to determine, seventy five patients with chronic hepatitis B infection (8-70 years) were investigated. The results were compared with the results of 50 healthy volunteers. Anti-H. pylori antibodies IgA and IgG were measured by Indirect fluorescent antibody test (IFAT) in sera of patients and healthy groups. The percentage of anti-H.pylori IgA antibodies (26.67%) were significantly (P<0.01) higher than healthy control group. While, no significant difference was found between the percentages of anti-H. pylori IgG antibodies (48 %) in patient sera and these kind of antibodies in sera of healthy control group (P > 0.05). The present results indica

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Publication Date
Thu Aug 14 2025
Journal Name
International Journal Of Latest Technology In Engineering, Management & Applied Science (ijltemas)
Temporal Trend of Congenital Heart Diseases in Iraqi Patients: An Analytic Study from Two Cardiac Institutions
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