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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 29 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Salivary IgA in chronic kidney disease patients undergoing hemodialysis in Missan governorate
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Background: Chronic kidney disease is a worldwide health problem, with adverse outcomes of cardiovascular disease and premature death, can be divided into five stages, depending on how severe the damage is to the kidneys, or the level of decrease in kidney function, the final stage of chronic kidney disease is called end-stage renal disease, salivary immunoglobulin A is the main immunoglobulin found in mucous secretions, including tears, saliva, colostrum and secretions from the genitourinary tract gastrointestinal tract, prostate and respiratory epithelium . It is also found in small amounts in blood.This study aimedto measuresalivary flow rate and salivaryimmunoglobulin Alevels in chronic kidney disease patients on hemodialysis treatment

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Publication Date
Fri Jul 22 2022
Journal Name
Biochemical And Cellular Archive
HEPATITIS B VIRUS GENOTYPES IN IRAQI PATIENTS WITH CHRONIC HEPATITIS B INFECTION
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Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a serious disease of the liver and signifies a major worldwide health concern. HBV Genotyping is vital for further epidemiological study, predicting the disease outcome and response to treatment. The current study aimed to determine hepatitis B virus genotypes in patients with chronic hepatitis B, and to validate possible associations with the baseline characteristics of the disease. A total of 90 patients with chronic hepatitis B infection were enrolled in this study. Liver function tests, hepatitis B virus markers and DNA viral load were done using routine standardized procedures. HBV genotyping was performed using real time PCR. Genotype D was the most predominant in 64 (71.1%) of samples, while

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Estimate size sub-population by Killworth method
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The aim of the thesis is to estimate the partial and inaccessible population groups, which is a field study to estimate the number of drug’s users in the Baghdad governorate for males who are (15-60) years old.

Because of the absence of data approved by government institutions, as well as the difficulty of estimating the numbers of these people from the traditional survey, in which the respondent expresses himself or his family members in some cases. In these challenges, the NSUM Network Scale-Up Method Is mainly based on asking respondents about the number of people they know in their network of drug addicts.

Based on this principle, a statistical questionnaire was designed to

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 18 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
STUDY OF THE TEMPORAL EFFECT OF THE LEVEL OF THE CREATINE KINASE ENZYME CK-MB AND SOME BIOMARKERS IN PATIENTS WITH MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION AND HEART FAILURE IN RAMADI CITY: STUDY OF THE TEMPORAL EFFECT OF THE LEVEL OF THE CREATINE KINASE ENZYME CK-MB AND SOME BIOMARKERS IN PATIENTS WITH MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION AND HEART FAILURE IN RAMADI CITY
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The current study is designed to achieve the goal of early detection of heart disease because it is the main risk of death. Some biomarkers were measured as well as the percentage of the effect of certain risk factors in people with myocardial infarction and heart failure. The study included 40 serum samples from people with heart disease. The effectiveness of the creatine kinase (CK-MB), as well as its temporal and albumin effects, as well as sodium ions in people with myocardial infarction and heart failure, were compared with the control group. as shown below:

-The first group consisted of 25 blood samples from people with myocardial infarction and 15 serum samples from people with heart failure. Blood

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
The preferences of planning bridges of Al-Mosul city post war
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The study started from the problems of wars and the damage that result from deterioration and destruction of infrastructure and the absence of planning and urban reconstruction. The study aims to address the condition of the bad destroyed bridges that have paralyzed traffic from the right and left sides of the city of Mosul. The study is based on the assumption that the reconstruction of bridges will improve the transportation network in the city of Mosul. The study relied on several approaches, including: the historical approach by reviewing global and local experiences and the descriptive approach to review the reality of the state of Mosul after the liberation process, through maps and the analytical approach through statistics and da

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 29 2025
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Depression Among Elderly Patients /Mosul City
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Background: Depression in elderly aged (60 year and above )is a widespread mental health problem . The current primary healthcare systeminadequately recognize and treat elderly  patients with depression..

Objectives:To determine the prevalence of depression among elderly patientsin Mosul city, its correlation with some sociodemographic variablesand to assess severity of depression in relation to past history of depression.

Type of the study: This is a cross-sectional study.

Methods: This study assess the  prevalence of depression in a randomly selected sample 150 elderly patients aged 60 years and above (89 female &

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 01 2019
Journal Name
International Journal Of Biology, Pharmacy And Allied Sciences
PREVALENCE OF HEPATITIS B AND C VIRUS INFECTION AMONG PATIENTS WITH VON- WILL BRAND DISEASE AT MEDICAL CITY / BAGHDAD 2018
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ABSTRACT Background: Viral hepatitis places a heavy burden on the health care. Large number of patient with bleeding disorders has chronic hepatitis C infection, while few are chronic carriers of hepatitis B virus. Aims of study: evaluate the prevalence of HBV, HCV infection among patient with Von Willebrand disease and to find factors that associated with the chance of getting the infection.

Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Intelligent Systems
Trip generation modeling for a selected sector in Baghdad city using the artificial neural network
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Abstract<p>This study is planned with the aim of constructing models that can be used to forecast trip production in the Al-Karada region in Baghdad city incorporating the socioeconomic features, through the use of various statistical approaches to the modeling of trip generation, such as artificial neural network (ANN) and multiple linear regression (MLR). The research region was split into 11 zones to accomplish the study aim. Forms were issued based on the needed sample size of 1,170. Only 1,050 forms with responses were received, giving a response rate of 89.74% for the research region. The collected data were processed using the ANN technique in MATLAB v20. The same database was utilized to</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Fri Dec 14 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Monitoring Indicators for Maternal, Newborn and Child Health at Sub Primary Health Care Centers in Baghdad City: An Evaluative Study
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Objectives: The study aims to evaluate the application of monitoring indicators for maternal, newborn and
child health through the evaluation of impact and coverage health indicators and to evaluate the usefulness of the
application of these indicators at sub primary health care centers in Baghdad City.
Methodology: A descriptive comparative design, which is using the evaluation approach, has been steered at
Sub Primary Health Centers of Baghdad City in order to evaluate the application; impact and coverage, and the
usefulness of monitoring indicators for maternal, newborn and child health from December 4th 2017 to April 29th
2018. A multistage, "non-probability" convenient, sample is selected for the present study. A t

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 30 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Civilizational Manifestations in the City of Astrabath in the Sixth Century AH
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The current study is concerned with presenting a descriptive study of the history of the city of Astrabath in the sixth century AH. The problem that the research tried to answer is represented in the investigation of historical news, and the study of the most prominent cultural aspects which characterizing that city. The research also aims to reach the geographical location of that city, its name and its suburbs. The importance of the research lies in the knowledge of everything related to the role of the civilization of Astrabath, as well as tracing the entry of the Arabs to it, so that it became a cultural, economic and scientific center and its historical role in the sixth century AH. The research reminde us with the scientific role o

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