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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Fri Nov 09 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Prevalence of obesity among adolescents at secondary schools in Kirkuk city
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Objective: to identify the secondary school adolescent's obesity, and to find out the relationship between
adolescents obesity characteristics and their family history.
Methodology: A cross-sectional study was carried out among 537 adolescents (270 boys and 267 girls) aged 12-15
years selected by means of a multistage stratified random sampling technique.
Results: the prevalence of obesity among adolescents was 22.3%. (55.8%) of the obese adolescents were male,
(42.5%) their age is (13) years old, and (79.2%) of them coming from middle level of socio economic status score.
There are a significant relationship between obese adolescents and their family history of obesity which indicated
that obese father, and obese br

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 15 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Baghdad College Of Dentistry
Periodontal health status of patients with Maxillary Chronic Rhinosinusitis (Part 1: Clinical study)
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Background: Periodontal diseases (PD) are inflammatory conditions of the tissues supporting the teeth, most often gingivitis and periodontitis. Maxillary chronic rhinosinusitis (MCRS) is the inflammation of the maxillary sinuses which is last for at least 12 consecutive weeks duration. Aims of study: Distribution of periodontal diseases among patients with Maxillary chronic rhinosinusitis according to gender and age. Materials and methods: Males and females subjects (25-45 years), divided into two groups; 150 patients suffer from MCRS and 130 subjects without MCRS. Clinical periodontal parameters; Plaque Index (PL.I), Gingival Index (G.I), Probing Pocket Depth (PPD), Clinical Attachment Level (CAL) and Bleeding On Probing (BOP) recorded f

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Publication Date
Mon Jul 01 2024
Journal Name
Journal Of The Faculty Of Medicine Baghdad
Evaluation of some Biochemical and Hematological Parameters in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease
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Background: Chronic kidney disease is a condition that results from an indefinite change in the structure and function of the kidneys. A slow, steady progression characterizes it and is irreversible.  Objectives: This study aims to evaluate the findings of certain biochemical and hematological tests in samples from Iraqi CKD patients.  Methods: This study included 90 subjects, where 70 patients with chronic kidney disease and 20 healthy individuals. Blood samples were collected from the patients during their visits to Ghazi Al-Hariri Surgical Specialties' Hospital- Medical City, Baghdad, Iraq. Age, sex and body mass index were assessed for each participant followed by renal function tests [serum blood urea, creatinine, uric acid a

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2018
Journal Name
Iosr Journal Of Pharmacy And Biological Sciences
Seroprevalence of Hepatitis B markers in Iraqi patients with chronic Hepatitis B virus
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To determine the seroprevalence of hepatitis B markers in chronic hepatitis B patients, 75 patients with chronic hepatitis B virus of ages (8-70) years have been investigated and compared with 50 apparently healthy individuals. All the studied groups were carried out to measure (HBsAg), (HBsAb), (HBeAg), (HBeAb), and (Total HBcAb) by Enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) technique. The percentage distribution of HBsAg was (86.67%) and HBsAb was (1.33%) in sera of CHB patients and there were a highly significant differences (P<0.01) when compared between studied groups, while, the percentage distribution of HBeAg was (22.67%) in sera of CHB patients and the significant represent the difference in distribution of HBeAg as infection but no

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 30 2011
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
Etiologies of chronic cough in adult patients: Is it hard to be diagnosed?
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Background: Chronic cough is often the key
symptom not only of chronic pulmonary diseases
but for other important extrapulmonary
pathologies, in particular upper airway and
gastrointestinal diseases.
Objective: This study was designed to
determine the etiology of chronic cough and the
usefulness of the available diagnostic tests in
reaching its causes.
Methods: One hundred patients presenting with
chronic cough at Baghdad Teaching Hospital
Outpatient Clinic were enrolled in this study. The
patients underwent a full clinical interview,
physical examination with indicated diagnostic
test(s) (such as chest x ray, bronchoscope, PFT,
GIT study, sinus X ray or CT).
Results: An etiology of chronic

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 31 2016
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
H1N1 INFLUENZA VERSUS SEASONAL INFLUENZA MORBIDITY AND MORTALITY: A PROSPECTIVE STUDY IN AL-KINDY TEACHING HOSPITAL/ IRAQ-BAGHDAD
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Background: H1N1 influenza pandemic or swine flu was an influenza pandemic first described in Iraq in October 2009 .The virus appeared to be anew strain of H1N1 causes wide range of morbidity and mortality among different genders and age groups as part of worldwide pandemics.Seasonal flu is a contagious respiratory illness caused by influenza viruses that infect the nose, throat, and lungs. It can cause mild to severe illness, and at times can lead to death. The best way to prevent the flu is by getting a flu vaccine each year.

Objectives: Is to determine the morbidity and mortality in different age groups in patients with H1N1 influenza versus those patients with seasonal influenza who were admitted at the same time to AL-kindy

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Biochemical Cellular Archive
detection of anti-helicobacter pylori cag a antibody in sera of patients with eye diseases
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The study conducted to investigate the association between Helicobacter pylori infection and eye diseases (Glaucoma, Cataract, CSR and Uveitis). One hundred and four patients with multiple eye disorders (10-80) years were observed from 10/9/2020 to 18/11/2020 and compared to thirty-one healthy people (19 female and 12 male). Each participant was tested for H. pylori CagAAbs and TNF-α using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The results have shown that there was a non-significant difference (p≥0.05) in the concentration of CagAantibodies in sera of patients with eye diseases except in the case of CSR (central serous chorioretinopathy), which was a significant difference (P≤0.05) compared to the control group. Also, the result

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A Comparison Between Maximum Likelihood Method And Bayesian Method For Estimating Some Non-Homogeneous Poisson Processes Models
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Abstract

The Non - Homogeneous Poisson  process is considered  as one of the statistical subjects which had an importance in other sciences and a large application in different areas as waiting raws and rectifiable systems method , computer and communication systems and the theory of reliability and many other, also it used in modeling the phenomenon that occurred by unfixed way over time (all events that changed by time).

This research deals with some of the basic concepts that are related to the Non - Homogeneous Poisson process , This research carried out two models of the Non - Homogeneous Poisson process which are the power law model , and Musa –okumto ,   to estimate th

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Publication Date
Fri Nov 09 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Evaluation of Organization Structure as Component of Quality Improvement for Maternal and Child Health Promotion in Baghdad City’s Primary Health Care Centers
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A descriptive evaluation study is conducted on primary health care centers in Baghdad City in order to
evaluate the organization structure as component of quality improvement of maternal and child health promotion
from April 10th 2012 to May20th 2013. A total of (22) primary health care centers. Study instrument was
comprised of three questionnaires and overall items included in these questionnaire were (65) items. Data are
collected through the utilization of the developed questionnaire and the interview technique as means of data
collection. Data are analyzed through the application of descriptive statistical data analysis methods which
includes the measurement of the frequencies, percentages, and computation of mean

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 12 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Evaluation of Quality of Life for Secondary School Students in Kirkuk City
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Objective(s):To evaluate the quality of life among secondary and to find out the relationship between students'quality of life and their socio-demographic characteristics of age, gender, residence, marital status, father's and mother's education, and family financial status in Kirkuk City. Methodology: A cross-sectional study is conducted on (100) studentwho are boys and girls aged(13 to 24) years old. These subjects are studying at secondary schools in Kirkuk City.The study is carried out at secondary schools in Kirkuk City from 7th July 7th 2014 to May 7th 2015. A questionnaire is constructed for the purpose

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