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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Sat May 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
Evaluation of Ceruloplasmin ferroxidase activity and lipid profiles in patients with Valvular heart diseases
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Abstract<p>One of the major health problems causing defects or damage to one or more of the four heart valves [aortic, mitral, pulmonary, and tricuspid] is valvular heart disease [VHD]; it occurs due to congenital abnormalities or acquired pathology. It is a defect that results in weak heart valves and is therefore unable to function as precise pathways of the blood. The aim of the current study was to evaluate the ferroxidase activity of ceruloplasmin (Cp) and the lipid profile of valvular heart disease patients in sera. Ninety subjects were included in this study and 60 patients with HDV were divided into two subgroups according to the affected valve: 33 patients with aortic valve disease (AV) and 27 patients</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Fri Nov 09 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Prevalence of obesity among adolescents at secondary schools in Kirkuk city
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Objective: to identify the secondary school adolescent's obesity, and to find out the relationship between
adolescents obesity characteristics and their family history.
Methodology: A cross-sectional study was carried out among 537 adolescents (270 boys and 267 girls) aged 12-15
years selected by means of a multistage stratified random sampling technique.
Results: the prevalence of obesity among adolescents was 22.3%. (55.8%) of the obese adolescents were male,
(42.5%) their age is (13) years old, and (79.2%) of them coming from middle level of socio economic status score.
There are a significant relationship between obese adolescents and their family history of obesity which indicated
that obese father, and obese br

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 08 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Impact of chemotherapy upon quality of life for patients with chronic myeloid leukemia
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Objective(s): To determine the impact of Chemotherapy upon the quality of life for patients with chronic myeloid
leukemia in Baghdad city.

Methodology: A descriptive study design was carried out The study was initiated from 30 January 2011 to October
2011.A purposive (non–probability) sample consisted of (130) patients with a chronic myeloid leukemia ,Who
attended to Baghdad Teaching Hospital and National Center for Research and Treatment of Hematology. The
sample criteria was the patients who were 18 years old and above, excluding the patients who suffered from
psychological problems and other chronic illnesses .A questionnaire was adopted and developed from European
Organization Research and treatment of Can

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Publication Date
Fri Nov 09 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Evaluation of Organization Structure as Component of Quality Improvement for Maternal and Child Health Promotion in Baghdad City’s Primary Health Care Centers
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A descriptive evaluation study is conducted on primary health care centers in Baghdad City in order to
evaluate the organization structure as component of quality improvement of maternal and child health promotion
from April 10th 2012 to May20th 2013. A total of (22) primary health care centers. Study instrument was
comprised of three questionnaires and overall items included in these questionnaire were (65) items. Data are
collected through the utilization of the developed questionnaire and the interview technique as means of data
collection. Data are analyzed through the application of descriptive statistical data analysis methods which
includes the measurement of the frequencies, percentages, and computation of mean

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 12 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Evaluation of Quality of Life for Secondary School Students in Kirkuk City
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Objective(s):To evaluate the quality of life among secondary and to find out the relationship between students'quality of life and their socio-demographic characteristics of age, gender, residence, marital status, father's and mother's education, and family financial status in Kirkuk City. Methodology: A cross-sectional study is conducted on (100) studentwho are boys and girls aged(13 to 24) years old. These subjects are studying at secondary schools in Kirkuk City.The study is carried out at secondary schools in Kirkuk City from 7th July 7th 2014 to May 7th 2015. A questionnaire is constructed for the purpose

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 08 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
Analysis of Walking Accessibility of Community Park in Duhok City
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Research studies show that urban green spaces promote physical activity, the health of urban residents, and psychological well-being. Taking the community park in Duhok city as the research object, the spatial service area in terms of accessibility of to the Community Park under the mode of pedestrian transportation is analyzed by using the network analysis service area function of the geographic information system (GIS). The results show that under the walking mode in the research area, Parks are concentrated in the north and south of the city, but community parks are few in disadvantaged neighborhoods. In addition, there is a significant disparity between the number of community parks and the number of communities. Only 11 communities

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 19 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Separation and determination of poly aromatic hydrocarbons in vegetables samples in Baghdad city using HPLC Technique
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The Reversed Phase High Performance Liquid Chromatography (RP-HPLC) has been used for the separation of Poly aromatic hydrocarbons(PAHs) by using column Reprosil 100 C 18 which was found to be a suitable one for this purpose. The result showed that using mobile phase of (Acetonitrile-water) Reversed Phase HPLC , flow rate of (1.2 ml/min) , column temperature (30CËš) and wave length of (254nm), give a complete separation with a good resolution . The total separation time was less than 20 min. The result of the study showed that the vegetables of Baghdad city were polluted by poly aromatic hydrocarbons(PAHs) in different places where samples taken because of drainage of the heavy water ,industrial trash and trash of oil colanders. -

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Publication Date
Sat Jul 01 2023
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Earth And Environmental Science
Sustainable Urban Distribution of Educational Institutions and Population Density in Baghdad City Using Remote Sensing Techniques
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Abstract<p>Urban planning include the creation of strategies as well as the management of metro regions, municipalities, and cities. In this study, the importance of applications of remote sensing and GIS in urban planning will be studied. The distribution of educational destitution cases in cities will be considered. A study area (Baghdad city) will be adopted, and the spatial analysis of the distribution will be according to population densities. In this study, the focus was on the importance of the sustainable distribution of urban educational institutions and the spatial appropriateness of this distribution according to the study areas and the available information. Distribution maps were pr</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Fri Nov 09 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Evaluation of Nurses' Practices toward the Control of Patients’ Complications at the Respiratory Care Unit in Baghdad Teaching Hospitals
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Objective(s): To evaluate nurses' practices who work in respiratory intensive care units to control the
complications of patients admitted at this unit and determine the relationship between nurses' sociodemographic
characteristics and their practices.
Methodology: A descriptive study was carried out at Respiratory Care Unit at Baghdad teaching hospitals that
started from February 22th, 2013 to August 30th, 2013. A purposive "non-probability" sample of (70) nurses who
work in Respiratory Care Unit was selected from Baghdad teaching hospitals. The data were collected through the
use of constructed questionnaire that consists of two parts; (l) Demographic data form that consists of 7items and
(2) nurses' practice form

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Estimate size sub-population by Killworth method
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The aim of the thesis is to estimate the partial and inaccessible population groups, which is a field study to estimate the number of drug’s users in the Baghdad governorate for males who are (15-60) years old.

Because of the absence of data approved by government institutions, as well as the difficulty of estimating the numbers of these people from the traditional survey, in which the respondent expresses himself or his family members in some cases. In these challenges, the NSUM Network Scale-Up Method Is mainly based on asking respondents about the number of people they know in their network of drug addicts.

Based on this principle, a statistical questionnaire was designed to

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