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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Fri Nov 09 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Prevalence of obesity among adolescents at secondary schools in Kirkuk city
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Objective: to identify the secondary school adolescent's obesity, and to find out the relationship between
adolescents obesity characteristics and their family history.
Methodology: A cross-sectional study was carried out among 537 adolescents (270 boys and 267 girls) aged 12-15
years selected by means of a multistage stratified random sampling technique.
Results: the prevalence of obesity among adolescents was 22.3%. (55.8%) of the obese adolescents were male,
(42.5%) their age is (13) years old, and (79.2%) of them coming from middle level of socio economic status score.
There are a significant relationship between obese adolescents and their family history of obesity which indicated
that obese father, and obese br

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 03 2022
Journal Name
Military Medical Science Letters
COVID-19 AMONG A SAMPLE OF IRAQI PATIENTS WITH RHEUMATIC DISEASES: A MULTICENTER STUDY
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Publication Date
Sat May 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
Evaluation of Ceruloplasmin ferroxidase activity and lipid profiles in patients with Valvular heart diseases
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Abstract<p>One of the major health problems causing defects or damage to one or more of the four heart valves [aortic, mitral, pulmonary, and tricuspid] is valvular heart disease [VHD]; it occurs due to congenital abnormalities or acquired pathology. It is a defect that results in weak heart valves and is therefore unable to function as precise pathways of the blood. The aim of the current study was to evaluate the ferroxidase activity of ceruloplasmin (Cp) and the lipid profile of valvular heart disease patients in sera. Ninety subjects were included in this study and 60 patients with HDV were divided into two subgroups according to the affected valve: 33 patients with aortic valve disease (AV) and 27 patients</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A Comparison Between Maximum Likelihood Method And Bayesian Method For Estimating Some Non-Homogeneous Poisson Processes Models
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Abstract

The Non - Homogeneous Poisson  process is considered  as one of the statistical subjects which had an importance in other sciences and a large application in different areas as waiting raws and rectifiable systems method , computer and communication systems and the theory of reliability and many other, also it used in modeling the phenomenon that occurred by unfixed way over time (all events that changed by time).

This research deals with some of the basic concepts that are related to the Non - Homogeneous Poisson process , This research carried out two models of the Non - Homogeneous Poisson process which are the power law model , and Musa –okumto ,   to estimate th

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 12 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Evaluation of Quality of Life for Secondary School Students in Kirkuk City
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Objective(s):To evaluate the quality of life among secondary and to find out the relationship between students'quality of life and their socio-demographic characteristics of age, gender, residence, marital status, father's and mother's education, and family financial status in Kirkuk City. Methodology: A cross-sectional study is conducted on (100) studentwho are boys and girls aged(13 to 24) years old. These subjects are studying at secondary schools in Kirkuk City.The study is carried out at secondary schools in Kirkuk City from 7th July 7th 2014 to May 7th 2015. A questionnaire is constructed for the purpose

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Sum of Squares of ‘n’ Consecutive Carol Numbers
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The discussion in this paper gives several theorems and lemmas on the Sums of Squares of  consecutive Carol Numbers. These theorems are proved by using the definition of carol numbers and mathematical induction method. Here the matrix form and the recursive form of sum of squares of  consecutive Carol numbers is also given. The properties of the Carol numbers are also derived.

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Sum of Squares of ‘m’ Consecutive Woodall Numbers
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        This paper discusses the Sums of Squares of “m” consecutive Woodall Numbers. These discussions are made from the definition of Woodall numbers. Also learn the comparability of Woodall numbers and other special numbers. An attempt to communicate the formula for the sums of squares of ‘m’ Woodall numbers and its matrix form are discussed. Further, this study expresses some more correlations between Woodall numbers and other special numbers.

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Publication Date
Fri Nov 09 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Evaluation of Organization Structure as Component of Quality Improvement for Maternal and Child Health Promotion in Baghdad City’s Primary Health Care Centers
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A descriptive evaluation study is conducted on primary health care centers in Baghdad City in order to
evaluate the organization structure as component of quality improvement of maternal and child health promotion
from April 10th 2012 to May20th 2013. A total of (22) primary health care centers. Study instrument was
comprised of three questionnaires and overall items included in these questionnaire were (65) items. Data are
collected through the utilization of the developed questionnaire and the interview technique as means of data
collection. Data are analyzed through the application of descriptive statistical data analysis methods which
includes the measurement of the frequencies, percentages, and computation of mean

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 08 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
Analysis of Walking Accessibility of Community Park in Duhok City
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Research studies show that urban green spaces promote physical activity, the health of urban residents, and psychological well-being. Taking the community park in Duhok city as the research object, the spatial service area in terms of accessibility of to the Community Park under the mode of pedestrian transportation is analyzed by using the network analysis service area function of the geographic information system (GIS). The results show that under the walking mode in the research area, Parks are concentrated in the north and south of the city, but community parks are few in disadvantaged neighborhoods. In addition, there is a significant disparity between the number of community parks and the number of communities. Only 11 communities

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 31 2016
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
H1N1 INFLUENZA VERSUS SEASONAL INFLUENZA MORBIDITY AND MORTALITY: A PROSPECTIVE STUDY IN AL-KINDY TEACHING HOSPITAL/ IRAQ-BAGHDAD
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Background: H1N1 influenza pandemic or swine flu was an influenza pandemic first described in Iraq in October 2009 .The virus appeared to be anew strain of H1N1 causes wide range of morbidity and mortality among different genders and age groups as part of worldwide pandemics.Seasonal flu is a contagious respiratory illness caused by influenza viruses that infect the nose, throat, and lungs. It can cause mild to severe illness, and at times can lead to death. The best way to prevent the flu is by getting a flu vaccine each year.

Objectives: Is to determine the morbidity and mortality in different age groups in patients with H1N1 influenza versus those patients with seasonal influenza who were admitted at the same time to AL-kindy

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