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Baghdad City Seasonal Forecasts Of Monthly Chronic Diseases patients Numbers Using SARIMA Models
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    One of the most important problems of IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY and all healthy instruments in IRAQ is Chronic Diseases because it  have a negative effects on IRAQI population, this is the aim of our study ,to specify the important Chronic diseases which make the population fell weakly, they are six diseases as the IRAQ ministry of health specified (  Diabetes, blood pressure diseases ,Brain diseases ,  Cardiology, Asthma, epilepsy) we got these data from IRAQI HEALTH MINISTRY ,bureau of planning and studies ,for the period 2009-2012,as monthly observations , represent sum of peoples have chronic diseases in Baghdad .

     Our research object is to find monthly forecasts of peoples have chronic disease in Baghdad by apply Seasonal integrated moving Average modeling approach (SARIMA) for forecast , which described as most accurate methods for seasonal forecasting.

  We found forecasting model of Diabetes disease as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,0)12 ,for High pressure disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,2)(0,1,1)12 ,for Cardiology as seasonal ARIMA(2,0,1)(0,2,1)12, for Brain  disease as seasonal ARIMA(2,1,0)(2,1,0)12 ,for  epilepsy disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,1,0)(1,1,0)12,and for  Asthma disease  as seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(1,0,0)12 .

    We found monthly forecasts for patients numbers for all diseases under the study for two years 2013 and 2014 , the most important conclusion of the study is the appearance  of seasonality to chronic diseases in Iraq.

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Effect of the Stability of Some Commodity Activities in Iraq on the Estimation of the Statistical Data Models for the Period (1988-2000)
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There is an assumption implicit but fundamental theory behind the decline by the time series used in the estimate, namely that the time series has a sleep feature Stationary or the language of Engle Gernger chains are integrated level zero, which indicated by I (0). It is well known, for example, tables of t-statistic is designed primarily to deal with the results of the regression that uses static strings. This assumption has been previously treated as an axiom the mid-seventies, where researchers are conducting studies of applied without taking into account the properties of time series used prior to the assessment, was to accept the results of these tests Bmanueh and delivery capabilities based on the applicability of the theo

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 07 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The effect of music therapy in lowering high blood pressure in patients with diseases of sugar
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      Faces of the individual in his life many stressful events, which includes expertise undesirable, and events may involve a lot of sources of tension and the risk factors and threats in all areas of life, and this would make the stressful events play a role in the genesis of many diseases physical.            

The high blood pressure is one of the most Actual manifestations of mental stress in the present scale physical disorders which may frequently in men relative to women, which may be caused by spasms in the blood vessels.      

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2017
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Medical Sciences
ISOLATION, IDENTIFICATION AND DETERMINATION OF ANTIFUNGAL SENSITIVITY OF FUNGI ISOLATED FROM A SAMPLE OF PATIENTS WITH RHINOSINUSITIS IN BAGHDAD CITY
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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
A Comparison Between Maximum Likelihood Method And Bayesian Method For Estimating Some Non-Homogeneous Poisson Processes Models
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Abstract

The Non - Homogeneous Poisson  process is considered  as one of the statistical subjects which had an importance in other sciences and a large application in different areas as waiting raws and rectifiable systems method , computer and communication systems and the theory of reliability and many other, also it used in modeling the phenomenon that occurred by unfixed way over time (all events that changed by time).

This research deals with some of the basic concepts that are related to the Non - Homogeneous Poisson process , This research carried out two models of the Non - Homogeneous Poisson process which are the power law model , and Musa –okumto ,   to estimate th

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 29 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Administration And Economics
Using the Maximum Likelihood Method with a Suggested Weight to Estimate the Effect of Some Pollutants on the Tigris River- City of Kut
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The aim of this research is to use robust technique by trimming, as the analysis of maximum likelihood (ML) often fails in the case of outliers in the studied phenomenon. Where the (MLE) will lose its advantages because of the bad influence caused by the Outliers. In order to address this problem, new statistical methods have been developed so as not to be affected by the outliers. These methods have robustness or resistance. Therefore, maximum trimmed likelihood: (MTL) is a good alternative to achieve more results. Acceptability and analogies, but weights can be used to increase the efficiency of the resulting capacities and to increase the strength of the estimate using the maximum weighted trimmed likelihood (MWTL). In order to perform t

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Publication Date
Fri Nov 09 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Evaluation of Organization Structure as Component of Quality Improvement for Maternal and Child Health Promotion in Baghdad City’s Primary Health Care Centers
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A descriptive evaluation study is conducted on primary health care centers in Baghdad City in order to
evaluate the organization structure as component of quality improvement of maternal and child health promotion
from April 10th 2012 to May20th 2013. A total of (22) primary health care centers. Study instrument was
comprised of three questionnaires and overall items included in these questionnaire were (65) items. Data are
collected through the utilization of the developed questionnaire and the interview technique as means of data
collection. Data are analyzed through the application of descriptive statistical data analysis methods which
includes the measurement of the frequencies, percentages, and computation of mean

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Sum of Squares of ‘m’ Consecutive Woodall Numbers
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        This paper discusses the Sums of Squares of “m” consecutive Woodall Numbers. These discussions are made from the definition of Woodall numbers. Also learn the comparability of Woodall numbers and other special numbers. An attempt to communicate the formula for the sums of squares of ‘m’ Woodall numbers and its matrix form are discussed. Further, this study expresses some more correlations between Woodall numbers and other special numbers.

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 01 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Sum of Squares of ‘n’ Consecutive Carol Numbers
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The discussion in this paper gives several theorems and lemmas on the Sums of Squares of  consecutive Carol Numbers. These theorems are proved by using the definition of carol numbers and mathematical induction method. Here the matrix form and the recursive form of sum of squares of  consecutive Carol numbers is also given. The properties of the Carol numbers are also derived.

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Publication Date
Fri Nov 09 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Prevalence of obesity among adolescents at secondary schools in Kirkuk city
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Objective: to identify the secondary school adolescent's obesity, and to find out the relationship between
adolescents obesity characteristics and their family history.
Methodology: A cross-sectional study was carried out among 537 adolescents (270 boys and 267 girls) aged 12-15
years selected by means of a multistage stratified random sampling technique.
Results: the prevalence of obesity among adolescents was 22.3%. (55.8%) of the obese adolescents were male,
(42.5%) their age is (13) years old, and (79.2%) of them coming from middle level of socio economic status score.
There are a significant relationship between obese adolescents and their family history of obesity which indicated
that obese father, and obese br

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 12 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Evaluation of Quality of Life for Secondary School Students in Kirkuk City
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Objective(s):To evaluate the quality of life among secondary and to find out the relationship between students'quality of life and their socio-demographic characteristics of age, gender, residence, marital status, father's and mother's education, and family financial status in Kirkuk City. Methodology: A cross-sectional study is conducted on (100) studentwho are boys and girls aged(13 to 24) years old. These subjects are studying at secondary schools in Kirkuk City.The study is carried out at secondary schools in Kirkuk City from 7th July 7th 2014 to May 7th 2015. A questionnaire is constructed for the purpose

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