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jeasiq-567
التنبؤ بقيم السلاسل الزمنية بأستعمال أنموذج (ARMAX) مع تطبيق عملي
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Abstract :

          Researchers have great interest in studying the black box models this thesis has been focused in the study one of the black box models , a ARMAX model which is one of the important models and can be accessed through a number of special cases which models (AR , MA , ARMA, ARX) , which combines method of the time series that depend on historical data and and regression method as explanatory variables addition to that past errors , ARMAX model importance has appeared in many areas of application that direct contact with our daily lives , it consists of constructing ARMAX model several traditional stages of the process , a identification As it was used Final prediction error (FPE) , Akaiki Information Criterion (AIC) and estimate As it was used Recursive least square with Forgetting Factor (RLS – F) and  Recursive pseudolinear regression method (RPLR) which come in the first place and  (RLS – F) which come in the second place  and finally come prediction for (30) value of the daily maximum temperature depending on the daily wind speed .  

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 30 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Diversity Assessment by Molecular Barcoding and Seed Morphology in Ricinus communis L.: Molecular diversity of Ricinus seeds
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Fourteen morphologically varied Ricinus communis L. seeds were collected from different localities in Egypt, El-Sudan and Saudi Arabia. Seed morphology and ITS barcoding analysis were performed to assess their diversity and phylogenetic relationship. Sequence’s alignment of nrITS region from different accessions display high levels of genetic similarities. Cluster analysis could not group different accessions according to their geographical distribution. Nevertheless, the genetic barcodes are interestingly matched with the morphological features of the Ricinus seeds. In conclusion, seed morphology proved to be a valuable tool in evaluating biodiversity and phylogenetic relationship in plant species with different loca

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 26 2024
Journal Name
University Of Baghdad
Preparation, identification, theoretical study and biological activity of new metal complexes containing a heterocyclic
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Publication Date
Wed Sep 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The effect of the law of amending the unified pension law No. (26) of 2019 on the size of tax revenues An applied research on a sample of Iraqi public universities: أثر تطبيق قانون التقاعد الموحد رقم (26) لسنة 2019 على حجم الايرادات الضريبية
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The contribution rate of tax revenues in the federal budget is very small compared to the rate of contribution of oil revenues and this leads to negative repercussions on the Iraqi economy and the budget becomes a prisoner of high and low oil prices, and this is a problem that needs to be studied to know the extent of the impact of economic and political decisions on the size of tax revenue and The research goal is determined in studying the effect of amending the Unified Law No (26) of 2019 on the size of annual tax revenues .                                   &

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Publication Date
Mon Jun 02 2025
Journal Name
Ivy Lee For Public R Elations
Iraqi public attitudes toward social issues published on social media: an analytical study of public comments
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The study aims to understand the Iraqi public's attitudes toward social issues posted on social media، specifically Facebook. It raises questions about the content of comments، whether they are negative or positive، whether they indicate respect for other opinions، or the opposite، whether the public engages in dialogue through comments، whether they offer solutions to posted issues، or whether they simply view them. The researcher selected five social issues، which revolved around magic practiced in cemeteries، honoring parents، a murder، an elderly woman working to support herself، and managing household affairs. The total number of comments on these posts reached 1،047، from which the researcher selected 156 com

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 01 2012
Journal Name
Journal Of Techniques مجلة التقني
A STUDY OF SOME TECHNICAL AND ECONOMICAL PARAMETERS FOR MACHINERY UNIT (NEW HOLLAND &DISC PLOW) BY USING THREE DIFFERENT TILT ANGLES دراسة بعض المؤشرات الفنية والأقتصادية للوحدة الميكنية (الجرار نيوهولاند مع المحراث القرصي الثلاثي القلاب) بأستخدام زوايا ميل مختلفة للأقراص
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Publication Date
Thu Jun 16 2022
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Path Planning and Obstacle Avoidance of a Mobile Robot based on GWO Algorithm
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planning is among the most significant in the field of robotics research.  As it is linked to finding a safe and efficient route in a cluttered environment for wheeled mobile robots and is considered a significant prerequisite for any such mobile robot project to be a success. This paper proposes the optimal path planning of the wheeled mobile robot with collision avoidance by using an algorithm called grey wolf optimization (GWO) as a method for finding the shortest and safe. The research goals in this study for identify the best path while taking into account the effect of the number of obstacles and design parameters on performance for the algorithm to find the best path. The simulations are run in the MATLAB environment to test the

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Publication Date
Sun May 10 2020
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Investigation of the Biochemical and Ultrastructural Mechanisms Underlying the Antimicrobial Activity of Mimusops spp. Extracts: Antimicrobial activity of Mimusops spp.
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Antibiotic resistance is the major growing threat facing the pharmacological treatment of bacterial infections. Therefore, bioprospecting the medicinal plants could provide potential sources for antimicrobial agents. Mimusops, the biggest and widely distributed plant genus of family Sapotaceae, is used in traditional medicines due to its promising pharmacological activities. This study was conducted to elucidate the antimicrobial effect of three unexplored Mimusops spp. (M. kummel, M. laurifolia and M. zeyheri). Furthermore, the mechanisms underlying such antibacterial activity were studied. The Mimusops leaf extracts revealed significant antibacterial activities against the five tested bacter

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Publication Date
Sat Jul 01 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The impact of crisis management in achieving banking liquidity: applied research in a sample of Iraqi private banks
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                     Crises affect the economic growth of the country in general and the banking sector in particular. Given the importance of this sector, it is necessary to evaluate the performance of banks from time to time and monitor the liquidity of each bank and how to organize its management to overcome any crisis or emergency situation that may befall it. The research seeks to diagnose the level of impact of crisis management. In the liquidity of Iraqi private banks, using liquidity indicators, as the research community represents the banks listed in the Iraq Stock Exchange As for the research sample, it is represented by (10) pri

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Publication Date
Thu Feb 01 2024
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Building a Sustainable GARCH Model to Forecast Rubber Price: Modified Huber Weighting Function Approach
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The unstable and uncertain nature of natural rubber prices makes them highly volatile and prone to outliers, which can have a significant impact on both modeling and forecasting. To tackle this issue, the author recommends a hybrid model that combines the autoregressive (AR) and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models. The model utilizes the Huber weighting function to ensure the forecast value of rubber prices remains sustainable even in the presence of outliers. The study aims to develop a sustainable model and forecast daily prices for a 12-day period by analyzing 2683 daily price data from Standard Malaysian Rubber Grade 20 (SMR 20) in Malaysia. The analysis incorporates two dispersion measurements (I

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 18 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
A Modified Approach by Using Prediction to Build a Best Threshold in ARX Model with Practical Application
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The proposal of nonlinear models is one of the most important methods in time series analysis, which has a wide potential for predicting various phenomena, including physical, engineering and economic, by studying the characteristics of random disturbances in order to arrive at accurate predictions.

In this, the autoregressive model with exogenous variable was built using a threshold as the first method, using two proposed approaches that were used to determine the best cutting point of [the predictability forward (forecasting) and the predictability in the time series (prediction), through the threshold point indicator]. B-J seasonal models are used as a second method based on the principle of the two proposed approaches in dete

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