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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
Spatial analysis of rural services in the district of Fallujah, Zgharit village, as a model
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          The study of services in villages is one of the imperative matters that must   be focused on, because it leads to increased attention, which reduces the differences between the countryside and the urban. The extent of its.

  It is well known that community services need to be reached by a person, unlike the anchor services that reach people, here the population distribution plays an important and prominent role in signing these services, so the dispersed distribution pattern and the gathering pattern appeared in the distribution, thus an effect on the time and distance that the person walked to obtain The services are community-based. Therefore

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 01 2013
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Improving the Effectiveness of Internal Control System In Accordance with COSO Model
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        The research aims to improve the effectiveness of internal control system according to a model COSO, by identifying the availability of system components according to the model and then improve the effectiveness of each component by focusing on areas for improvement in each component, as it was addressed to a model COSO and then Maamth with the environment, the current Iraqi by introducing some improvements on the form of some mechanisms of corporate governance of the Council of Directors, and senior management, the Audit Committee, Committee appointments, especially that supplies application available in the laws and legislation, the current Iraqi, taking into consideration to make some

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Publication Date
Thu Oct 06 2022
Journal Name
Advances In Systems Science And Applications
Stability and Bifurcation of a Delay Cancer Model in the Polluted Environment
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It is well known that the spread of cancer or tumor growth increases in polluted environments. In this paper, the dynamic behavior of the cancer model in the polluted environment is studied taking into consideration the delay in clearance of the environment from their contamination. The set of differential equations that simulates this epidemic model is formulated. The existence, uniqueness, and the bound of the solution are discussed. The local and global stability conditions of disease-free and endemic equilibrium points are investigated. The occurrence of the Hopf bifurcation around the endemic equilibrium point is proved. The stability and direction of the periodic dynamics are studied. Finally, the paper is ended with a numerical simul

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 01 2020
Journal Name
Civil Engineering Journal
Model Development for the Prediction of the Resilient Modulus of Warm Mix Asphalt
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Increasing material prices coupled with the emission of hazardous gases through the production and construction of Hot Mix Asphalt (HMA) has driven a strong movement toward the adoption of sustainable construction technology. Warm Mix Asphalt (WMA) is considered relatively a new technology, which enables the production and compaction of asphalt concrete mixtures at temperatures 15-40 °C lower than that of traditional hot mix asphalt. The Resilient modulus (Mr) which can be defined as the ratio of axial pulsating stress to the corresponding recoverable strain, is used to evaluate the relative quality of materials as well as to generate input for pavement design or pavement evaluation and analysis. Based on the aforementioned preface, it is

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 01 2008
Journal Name
University Of Baghdad
The use of remote sensing to study the reflection of the ground cover and its relationship to some soil characteristics in the Abi Gharib area
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Publication Date
Tue Mar 30 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Determining the Quality and Quantity of Bioethanol Production using Golden Shower (Cassica fistula) Fruit
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Depletion of fossil fuel is one of the main reasons why the bioethanol has become popular. It is a renewable energy source. In order to meet the great demand of bioethanol, it is best that the bioethanol production is from cheap raw materials. Since the golden shower fruit is not being utilized and is considered as waste material, hence, this study was conducted to make use of the large volume of the residue as feedstock to test its potential for bioethanol extraction.The main goal of this study is to obtain the most volume of bioethanol from the golden shower fruit liquid residue by the factors, days of fermentation (3, 5, and 7 days) and sugar concentration (15, 20 and 25 brix) of the liquid residue. Also, part of the study is to compu

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 12 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Determination of the Impact of Electronic Health Information Systems upon Medical, Medical Backing and Administrative Business Fields in Al-Kindy Teaching Hospital
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Objective(s): To determine the impact of the Electronic Health Information Systems upon medical, medical backing and administrative business fields in Al-Kindy Teaching Hospital and to identify the relationship between such impact and their demographic characteristics of years of employment, place of work, and education. Methodology: A descriptive analytical design is employed through the period of April 25th 2016 to May 28th 2016. A purposive "non- probability" sample of (50) subject is selected. The sample is comprised of (25) medical and medical backing staff and (25) administrative staff who are all

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Publication Date
Fri Jun 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Restructuring of the public industrial sector companies Wayshift to private shareholding companies and mixed (Iraqi experience as a model)
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That the main feature of  the economics many countries in general is a tendency towards defining the role of the public sector in economic activity and the tendency towards encourage the private sector to investment in public projects especially in countries those tendency towards market economy actually.

That increased economic development proven failure in achieving more economic growth both individually in many countries especially developing countries socialist, by researchers this led one way or another to direction of corrective reforms in their economic was one of them in Transformation of public companies into Shareholding companies contributes to the public sector in resources and expertise

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 20 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Calculate the Average Run Length (ARL) to Detect the Deviation in the Process A case Study in an Industrial Organization
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Statistical control charts are widely used in industry for process and measurement control . in this paper we study the use of markov chain approach in calculating the average run length (ARL) of cumulative sum (Cusum) control chart for defect the shifts in the mean of process , and exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control charts for defect the shifts for process mean and , the standard deviation . Also ,we used the EWMA charts based on the logarithm of the sample variance for monitoring a process standard deviation when the observations (products are selected from al_mamun factory ) are identically and independently distributed (iid) from normal distribution in continuous manufacturing .

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 01 2023
Journal Name
Alexandria Engineering Journal
Employing Sisko non-Newtonian model to investigate the thermal behavior of blood flow in a stenosis artery: Effects of heat flux, different severities of stenosis, and different radii of the artery
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