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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 12 2017
Journal Name
Int'l Journal Of Computing, Communications & Instrumentation Engg.(ijccie)
Variant Parameters effect on OFDM Estimation Power Consumption
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Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Effectiveness of Indicators of Financial Discipline in Strengthening the Exchange Rate, with a Special Reference to Iraq
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Controlling public expenditures is one of the main objectives of the public budget. The public budget often suffers from a deficit, whether in developed or developing countries, because expenditures are usually greater than the revenues generated. This requires the existence of financial rules that are adhered to by the government, which in turn leads to discipline. Fiscal policy leads to a reduction in the obligations incumbent on the government.  Adhering to the financial rules would correct the course of fiscal policy in Iraq, with the need to direct oil revenues in the years of financial abundance when global oil prices rise to sovereign funds similar to other rentier countries, which contributes to maintaining the stabi

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 15 2021
Journal Name
Al-academy
Processes directing the scenography space in the Iraqi theatrical show Shakespeare texts as a model
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Publication Date
Wed Sep 15 2021
Journal Name
Al-academy
Processes directing the scenographic space in the Iraqi theatrical show Shakespeare texts as a model
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Publication Date
Mon Feb 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
Bayesian Computational Methods of the Logistic Regression Model
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Abstract<p>In this paper, we will discuss the performance of Bayesian computational approaches for estimating the parameters of a Logistic Regression model. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms was the base estimation procedure. We present two algorithms: Random Walk Metropolis (RWM) and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC). We also applied these approaches to a real data set.</p>
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Publication Date
Thu Apr 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The impact of empowerment strategies on the characteristics of work enrichment An exploratory research to the views of a sample of the leaders of the Ministry of Oil in Iraq
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The study aimed to investigate the relationship between empowerment strategies and their impact on the success of enrichment work, it included the dimensions of empowerment strategies (power, knowledge, information, rewards), The dimensions of Job enrichment are (Skill variety, Task identity, Task significance, Autonomy, Feedback). The study was conducted at the headquarters of the Iraqi Oil Ministry in Baghdad and was based on a sample of the leadership of the ministry of managers consisting of 215 people. The data were collected using the questionnaire method based on scientific standards adopted in previous st

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Publication Date
Thu Sep 06 2018
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Bone Defect Animal Model for Hybrid Polymer Matrix Nano Composite as Bone Substitute Biomaterials
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Addition of bioactive materials such as Titanium oxide (TiO2), and incorporation of bio inert ceramic such as alumina (Al2O3), into polyetheretherketone (PEEK) has been adopted as an effective approach to improve bone-implant interfaces. In this paper, hot pressing technique has been adopted as a production method. This technique gave a homogenous distribution of the additive materials in the proposed composite biomaterial. Different compositions and compounding temperatures have been applied to all samples. Mechanical properties and animal model have been studied in all different production conditions. The results of these new TiO2/Al2O3/PEEK biocomposites with different

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 12 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Determination of the Impact of Electronic Health Information Systems upon Medical, Medical Backing and Administrative Business Fields in Al-Kindy Teaching Hospital
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Objective(s): To determine the impact of the Electronic Health Information Systems upon medical, medical backing and administrative business fields in Al-Kindy Teaching Hospital and to identify the relationship between such impact and their demographic characteristics of years of employment, place of work, and education. Methodology: A descriptive analytical design is employed through the period of April 25th 2016 to May 28th 2016. A purposive "non- probability" sample of (50) subject is selected. The sample is comprised of (25) medical and medical backing staff and (25) administrative staff who are all

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 21 2023
Journal Name
International Journal Of Professional Business Review
Analysis of the Impact of Six Sigma and Risk Management on Iraq's Energy Sector Metrology
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Purpose: aims the study to show How to be can to enhance measurement management by incorporating a risk-based approach and the six sigma method into a more thorough assessment of metrological performance.   Theoretical framework: Recent literature has recorded good results in analyzing the impact of Six Sigma and risk management on the energy sector (Barrera García et al., 2022) (D'Emilia et al. 2015). However, this research came to validate and emphasize the most comprehensive assessment of metrological performance by integrating Risk management based approach and Six Sigma analysis.   Design/methodology/approach: This study was conducted in Iraqi petroleum refining companies. System quality is measured in terms of sigmas, and t

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 21 2023
Journal Name
International Journal Of Professional Business Review
Analysis of the Impact of Six Sigma and Risk Management on Iraq's Energy Sector Metrology
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Purpose: aims the study to show How to be can to enhance measurement management by incorporating a risk-based approach and the six sigma method into a more thorough assessment of metrological performance.   Theoretical framework: Recent literature has recorded good results in analyzing the impact of Six Sigma and risk management on the energy sector (Barrera García et al., 2022) (D'Emilia et al. 2015). However, this research came to validate and emphasize the most comprehensive assessment of metrological performance by integrating Risk management based approach and Six Sigma analysis.   Design/methodology/approach: This study was conducted in Iraqi petroleum refining companies. System quality is measured in terms of sigmas, and t

... Show More
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