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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 29 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Zonation liquefaction hazard assessment by GIS and Geotechnical data in southern coasts of the Caspian Sea (Beach Amirabad)
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     Investigation of geotechnical vulnerability (liquefaction) and Zonation of the southern region of the Caspian Sea is my most important aim in terms of destructive earthquakes hazard potential. Past geologic events on the south coast of Caspian Sea indicates that destructive earthquakes lead to the death of numbers in this area. Remained evidence of seismic events happening indicates extensive landslides, liquefaction and soil subsidence in the residential and even natural area. Therefore, in this study determination of geotechnical vulnerability (liquefaction) intensity in southern coast of Caspian Sea against natural forces resulting from earthquakes and coastal construction via geographical information system e

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 22 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Facies Analyses and Diagenetic features development of Albian - Aptian Succession in the Wset Qurna oil field, Southern Iraq
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The Carbonate-clastic succession in this study is represented by the Shuaiba and Nahr Umr Formations deposited during the Albian - Aptian Sequence. The present study includes petrography, microfacies analyses, and studying reservoir characterizations for 5 boreholes within West Qurna oil field in the study area. According to the type of study succession (clastic – Carbonate) there are two types of facies analyses:-Carbonate facies analysis, which showed five major microfacies were recognized in the succession of the Shuaiba Formation, bioclastic mudstones to wackstone, Orbitolina wackestone to packstone, Miliolids wackestone, Peloidal wackestone to packstone and mudstone to wackestone identified as an open shelf toward the deep basin.

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 29 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Application of the Predictive deconvolution on a seismic line Al-Najaf and Al-Muthanna Governorates in Southern Iraq
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This study deals with the processing  of field seismic data for a seismic line located within the administrative boundaries of Najaf and Muthanna governorates in southern Iraq (7Gn 21) with a length of 54 km. The study was conducted within the Processing Department of the Oil Exploration Company using the Omega  system, which contains a large number of programs that deal with processing, through the use of these programs applied  predictive deconvolution  of both( gap) and (spike). The final section was produced for both types. The gap predictive deconvolution  gave improvement in the shallow reflectors while in deep reflectors it did not give a good improvement, thus giving a good continuity of the reflectors at

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 30 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Study the Influence of Solar Activity on the Ionospheric Electron, Ion and Neutral Particle Temperatures over Iraqi Region Using Ionospheric Models
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The influence of solar activity on the predicted ionospheric temperature parameters (electron Te, Ion Ti and neutral particle Tn) have been investigated over ionospheric Iraqi region by data generated using International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) and Madrigal models, the models result have been compared during the minimum and the maximum of solar cycle 24 for the years 2009 and 2016 respectively and for an altitudes ranged from 200-1000 km. The region under consideration spans over (latitude 29.1-37.2oN; longitude 38.9-47.7oE) within Iraq territory, the purpose of this paper is to determine the affection of the solar activity represented by the (sunspot number and solar flux) on the annual behavio

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 06 2022
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
THE ETHICAL RESPONSIBILITY OF THE COMMUNICATOR IN PRESS INSTITUTIONS TO CONSOLIDATE THE VALUES OF TOLERANCE: A Study of the Communicator in the Newspapers (Al-Zaman, Al-Sabah, Al-Mada) For the period: 1/5/2020 to 1/10/2020
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This research deals with the role that the media can play in spreading awareness, culture and sound behavior among members of society, due to its ability to reach the largest number of individuals; its wide spread within society; and the moral responsibility of the media in consolidating the components of civil peace. The media works on forming intellectual convictions and behavioral attitudes by publishing opinions and ideas, introducing them to people's awareness and enhancing them in the practice of their daily lives, he was its media medium. Sociologists and psychologists confirm that the media. The significance of the research comes due to the broadening of violence and sectarian fighting; the absence of a culture of civil social pe

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Publication Date
Mon Apr 17 2017
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
THE POSSIBILITY OF THE APPLICATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL FINES TO REDUCE THE WASTE GENERATED FROM THE SHOPE AND RESTAURANTS IN THE CITY OF BAGHDAD/ CASE STUDY.: THE POSSIBILITY OF THE APPLICATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL FINES TO REDUCE THE WASTE GENERATED FROM THE SHOPE AND RESTAURANTS IN THE CITY OF BAGHDAD/ CASE STUDY.
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The research aims to identify the possibility of applying environmental fines to commercial shops and restaurants to reduce the environmental pollution represented by the wastes generated from them. The research sample was divided into two groups, including the first (20) commercial shops (meat shops and slaughter it, fruits & vegetables, legumes and accessories) and second (30) Restaurant in the city of Baghdad on both sides of Karkh and Rusafa. The quality of the waste was classified into carton, plastic, aluminum, glass, paper, cork and food waste. The study revealed the possibility of applying environmental fines to restaurants and shops to reduce the waste generated from them throughout the year and to apply continuous monitorin

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Publication Date
Wed Nov 21 2018
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
Remediation of the Administrative Corruption Issues in accordance to the Theory of News Frames
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Media, especially press plays an important role in fighting corruption and tackling this phenomenon, which has become widespread in our society, through its effective role in raising awareness of the seriousness of spreading of corruption of all its forms in society.
All international conventions and agreements stress the necessity of the role of media and its importance in the light of corruption. All countries also commit themselves to the necessity of guaranteeing the freedom of media and the circulation of information and preparing it as a prerequisite for activating the People’s Control Mechanism and supporting measures and means to prevent and combat financial and administrative corruption more actively and effectively.
Co

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 11 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Determination of the Impact of Electronic Health Information Systems upon Medical, Medical Backing and Administrative Decisions in Al-Kindy Teaching Hospital
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Objective(s): To determine the impact of the electronic Health Information Systems upon medical, medical Backing and administrativedecisions in Al-Kindy Teaching Hospital. Methodology: A descriptive analytical design is employed through the period of June 14th 2015 to August 15th 2015. A purposive "non- probability" sample of (50) subject is selected. The sample is comprised of (25) medical and medical backing staff and (25) administrative staff who are all involved in the process of decision making in Al-Kindy Teaching Hospital. A self-report questionnaire, of (68) item, is adopted and developed for the purpo

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Publication Date
Sun May 26 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Delineation the effect of saline groundwater on the resistivity of middle part of Dammam Formation southwest of Samawah city, Southern Iraq
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The study area intendes for agricultural investment and establishment stations of water pumping for human use to the nearby areas, southwest of Samawah city. Twelve Two-Dimension (2-D) survey points were performed by using Wenner-Schlumberger array configuration to take the measurements. The inverse models of two survey point appear the effect of the saline groundwater that raises from Rus Formation, which caused a significant reduction in resistivity of the groundwater-bearing zone within middle Dammam Formation along the fault plane.  

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 01 2021
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Earth And Environmental Science
A Vision to Develop the Effectiveness of the Dissemination of Innovations to Rationalize the Use of Irrigation Water in Iraqi Agriculture
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Abstract<p>Iraqi agriculture faces a major water problem, affecting cultivated areas, agricultural production, farmers’ incomes and food security. However, the results achieved in rationalizing the use of irrigation water are still limited and do not match what they should be in order to meet this serious challenge. The study aimed to provide a vision for the development of the effectiveness of the dissemination of innovations to rationalize the use of irrigation water in Iraqi agriculture. In light of the framework of the dissemination of agricultural innovations, factors related to their effectiveness, and the summary of the Iraqi experience in the field of dissemination of modern irrigation</p> ... Show More
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