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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 03 2020
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
Using the general budget for the year 2019 to achieve sustainable development in Iraq
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The public budget is on the same time an art and a science .As an accountable science it seeks balance between public income and public expenditure for an accountable year. And as an accountable art it seeks to achieve economic balance by distributing equitable income in order to reach sustainable development .This is the optimal use of all natural and human resources to address scarcity of natural resources facing the increase need of human resources by spending on education, health, environment, housing, agriculture and industry to achieve social justice for the current generation and future generations. Since the first budget in Iraq on 1921 an accounting budget, is balancing the sections and items has been adopted and since the publi

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 06 2014
Journal Name
دراسات دولية
العوامل الداخلية والخارجية للتغيير السياسي في المنطقة العربية
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لقد شهدت المنطقة العربية تحولات وتغييرات شاملة انطوت على عنصري المفاجأة من حيث التوقيت، وانعكاساتها الاقليمية والدولية، إذ اجتاحت الدول العربية ثورات شعبية احدثت جملة من التغيرات والتبدلات الجيوسياسية، اذ استطاع بعضها اقتلاع انظمة حاكمة كان من غير المتصور ان تتزحزح من مكانها مع تسلحها بكل ادوات العصر من القمع والديكتاتورية الاستبداد، لذا كان للطابع الشعبي السلمي والنجاح الذي تحقق للشعوب العربية كما في م

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 30 2015
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Linguistic correction To some modern narrators In the book (Reforming the error of the modernists) For the Orator (d. 388 AH)
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Il semble que Khattabi était un linguiste, avec un endroit linguistique pour comprendre les textes de conversations et des mots étranges en particulier. Langue, et chacun avait ses arguments et ses preuves. Ses corrections incluaient la mélodie dans les mouvements, telle qu'une dilution plus serrée, la dilution de l'agitateur, le remplacement d'un autre mouvement, ou une autre rotation des mouvements, et le changement de structure morphologique du mot qui en résultait, ainsi que l'alerte sur les conséquences des lettres, Certaines de ces erreurs sont dues à la langue, et certaines sont considérées comme un type de déformation ou de fausse représentation connue de certains spécialistes, ce qui constitue un précédent louable

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 02 2017
Journal Name
Al-academy
The contribution of the arts to interdisciplinary sciences: Art Therapy
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The history of the arts is closely connected with the history of humankind, since it is impossible to separate our scientific and artistic advances’. Therefore, the current research focuses on the close bond between art and other disciplines. The connection of the arts to the sciences is unequivocal and undisputed; the contributions of artists to the various scientific domains are clear. If one scrutinises the ability of artists to participate in building societies, one will find that the arts have penetrated deeply into a range of products and inventions, starting with the pencil and ending with the missile. The artist’s contributions play a part in the minutest of details across all fields of industry: production, craftsmanship, me

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Publication Date
Fri Nov 15 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Investigating the Annual Cross-Correlation between HPF, OWF and BUF Ionospheric Parameters over Middle East Region
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In this work various correlation methods were employed to investigate the annual cross-correlation patterns among three different ionospheric parameters: Optimum Working Frequency (OWF), Highest Probable Frequency (HPF), and Best Usable Frequency (BUF). The annual predicted dataset for these parameters were generated using VOCAP and ASASPS models based on the monthly Sunspot Numbers (SSN) during two years of solar cycle 24, minimum 2009 and maximum 2014. The investigation was conducted for Thirty-two different transmitter/receiver stations distributed over Middle East. The locations were selected based on the geodesic parameters which were calculated for different path lengths (500, 1000, 1500, and 2000) km and bearings (N, NE, E, S

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Publication Date
Tue Oct 22 2024
Journal Name
Iraqi Statisticians Journal
Inferential Methods for the Dagum Regression Model
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The Dagum Regression Model, introduced to address limitations in traditional econometric models, provides enhanced flexibility for analyzing data characterized by heavy tails and asymmetry, which is common in income and wealth distributions. This paper develops and applies the Dagum model, demonstrating its advantages over other distributions such as the Log-Normal and Gamma distributions. The model's parameters are estimated using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and the Method of Moments (MoM). A simulation study evaluates both methods' performance across various sample sizes, showing that MoM tends to offer more robust and precise estimates, particularly in small samples. These findings provide valuable insights into the ana

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Publication Date
Fri Aug 12 2022
Journal Name
International Journal Of Health Sciences
Employing documentaries in the Iraqi satellite channel to reveal the crimes of the former regime
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This study is one of the descriptive studies, where the researcher used the survey method, which seeks to provide an accurate and appropriate description of the main and sub-categories of the content of the research for television documentaries on the Iraqi satellite channel, relying on the research questions and objectives to analyze the content of the documentaries according to the approach referred to above. The objectives of the research were summarized to identify the function of the documentary programs in Al-Iraqiya channel to detect the crimes of the former regime, to know the frameworks highlighted by the documentary programs in Al-Iraqiya channel to reveal the crimes of the former regime, to identify the extent of the circ

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Identifying the factors affecting in the Intentions to continue using of the government social media
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Abstract

Social media has thrived recently and public organizations at Thi-Qar governorate across different levels are experimenting with launching government social media (GSM) to facilitating two-way interactions between the government and its citizens. Both scholars and practitioners are focusing on understanding the key success factors related to the create of GSM. This study aimed to identify the key success factors by exploring the formation mechanism of individuals’ continuous usage intention. Through the theoretical perspective of the uses and gratifications theory. We identify the gratification factors that stimulate users’ continuance intention toward GSM. Furthermore, we draw upon the stimulus–organism–

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2016
Journal Name
Sciences Journal Of Physical Education
The effect of using intellectual map according to the feedback (verbally and writhingly ) in the learning some skills of floor exercises in the women's artistic gymnastics
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Abstract The aim of this study is preparing an intellectual map according to the feedback (verbally and writhingly ) in order to learn some skills of floor exercises in the women's artistic gymnastics , In addition to that the aim of this study defines on the impacts of intellectual map according to the feedback approach, and to identify the best group between the three groups study in the learning of skills approach in this study, the researchers used the experimental method, the subject of the study included on students second class in physical education and sport sciences , Baghdad University (2014-2015) , and divided into three groups for teaching skills which was under studied .The species used the specific manner by lot for selection

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Publication Date
Tue Aug 15 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Impact of Gross Domestic Product Response to the Money Supply Shock in the Iraqi Economy for the Period (2004-2021)
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The research aims to clarify the response of the GDP to the M1 shock. It includes access to the results using standard methods, where the standard model was built according to quarterly data using the program STATA 17. According to the joint integration model ARDL, the research found a long-term equilibrium positive for the relationship between GDP and the money supply in Iraq, as the change in the money supply by a certain percentage will lead to a change in GDP by about 71% of that percentage. In the event of a shock in the Iraqi economy, the impact of the M1 will differ from what it was before the shock, as the shock will increase its effectiveness towards GDP by about 10% more than before the shock. At the same time, the relationship

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