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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 15 2023
Journal Name
International Journal Of Emerging Technologies In Learning (ijet)
Instructional Design According to the Repulsive Learning Model and its Impact on the Achievement of Chemistry and Lateral Thinking for Third-Grade Intermediate Students
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Identify the effect of an educational design according to the repulsive (allosteric) learning model on the achievement of chemistry and lateral thinking. The sample consisted of (59) students from third-grade intermediate students. They were randomly distributed into two groups (experimental and control), and the equivalence was done in (chronological age, previous achievement in chemistry, intelligence, lateral thinking). The (30) students from experimental group were taught according to the instructional design, other 29 students from the (control) group were taught according to the usual method. Two tests done, one of them is an achievement test consisted of (30) items of the type of multiple choice, the other was a lateral think

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Publication Date
Wed May 10 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
The impact of population density in sustainable housing - An applied study in the city of Baghdad (Mahalla 817), Al-Bayaa as a model
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Population density represents an important indicator for determining the growth of the size of urban areas. Population density has a direct impact on the quality of life, and its excessive rise may lead to the deterioration of basic service facilities. The problem of the research is that the increase in the total population densities of the residential neighborhood may reflect negatively on the nature of the services provided to the residents in these shops, and thus the failure to achieve sustainability in the residential locality. The research assumes that the increase in population densities negatively affects the achievement of sustainability in the residential neighborhood.

 

      

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 25 2019
Journal Name
Al-academy
Direction Structure of the Imaginary and Interpretation Controversy in the Theatre Reception "Mukashafat" Play -A Model: ثابت رسول جواد
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The current research deals with the argument of delusion and interpretation in the direction structure and its reflected impact in the reception activity and the amount of conceptual displacement it is subjected to in an aesthetic approach to abstract conceptual definitions of the reception activity , by the effect of this dialectic in the direction structure, which can be summed up by the following question: (What are the characteristics of the direction structure of the imaginary and what is the argument of interpretation in the theatre reception activity?) in order to stand on the aesthetic framework and conceptual definition of the direction structure in the controversy of interpretation and imagination, and its impact on the concept

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 26 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
The impact of computerized planning on audit performance (Proposed model)
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The development of technology used in computerized programs is considered on of the most important topics that is responsible for creating tools that can be used in the business environment, the audit profession is one of those professions that received this development. In order for this profession to be more effective, there must be a tool based on sound (correct) scientific basis that can be based upon to enhance the quality of auditing. The research also aims to propose a computerized program to plan the auditing process according to the methods appropriate to the working environment in the audit offices and companies in Iraq. The computerized program was applied to the research sample and the hypothesis of the research has been prov

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Publication Date
Fri Nov 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
The Bifurcation analysis of Prey-Predator Model in The Presence of Stage Structured with Harvesting and Toxicity
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Abstract<p>For a mathematical model the local bifurcation like pitchfork, transcritical and saddle node occurrence condition is defined in this paper. With the existing of toxicity and harvesting in predator and prey it consist of stage-structured. Near the positive equilibrium point of mathematical model on the Hopf bifurcation with particular emphasis it established. Near the equilibrium point E<sub>0</sub> the transcritical bifurcation occurs it is described with analysis. And it shown that at equilibrium points E<sub>1</sub> and E<sub>2</sub> happened the occurrence of saddle-node bifurcation. At each point the pitch fork bifurcation occurrence is not happened. </p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Thu Dec 30 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
The The Dynamics of a Prey-Predator Model with Infectious Disease in Prey: Role of Media Coverage
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In this paper, an eco-epidemiological model with media coverage effect is proposed and studied. A prey-predator model with modified Leslie-Gower and functional response is studied. An  -type of disease in prey is considered.  The existence, uniqueness and boundedness of the solution of the model are discussed. The local and global stability of this system are carried out. The conditions for the persistence of all species are established. The local bifurcation in the model is studied. Finally, numerical simulations are conducted to illustrate the analytical results.

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 26 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
The Establishment of a Theoretical Model for the Estimation of Some Photo-Physical Processes in Laser Dyes
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In this study, a new theoretical method for the estimation of absorption and fluorescence spectra is accomplished. These estimations were established following experimental measurements of absorption and fluorescence spectra for the solutions of fluorescein laser dye mixed with titanium dioxide (TiO2) nanoparticles
in distilled water. The used concentration of fluorescein dye was 1x10-5 M, whereas the masses of titanium dioxide nanoparticles were 0.0003g, 0.0005g, 0.001g and 0.002g. An absorption spectra improvement was observed upon raising the mass of TiO2 nanoparticles, which specifies that doping the fluorescein dye with TiO2 nanoparticles have an essential influence on the dye absorption spectra. On the other side, all fluorescen

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 01 2019
Journal Name
2019 First International Conference Of Computer And Applied Sciences (cas)
A Comparison for Some of the estimation methods of the Parallel Stress-Strength model In the case of Inverse Rayleigh Distribution
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Publication Date
Tue Oct 23 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Compare some wavelet estimators for parameters in the linear regression model with errors follows ARFIMA model.
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The aim of this research is to estimate the parameters of the linear regression model with errors following ARFIMA model by using wavelet method depending on maximum likelihood and approaching general least square as well as ordinary least square. We use the estimators in practical application on real data, which were the monthly data of Inflation and Dollar exchange rate obtained from the (CSO) Central Statistical organization for the period from 1/2005 to 12/2015. The results proved that (WML) was the most reliable and efficient from the other estimators, also the results provide that the changing of fractional difference parameter (d) doesn’t effect on the results.

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Publication Date
Mon Oct 22 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Measuring and analyzing the relationship between the fiscal policy indicators and the bank stability index in Iraq for the period 2010-2016 using the ARDL model.
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The importance of this research is to clarify the nature and the relationship between the indicators of financial policy and banking stability in Iraq, as well as to find a composite index reflects the state of banking stability in Iraq in order to provide an appropriate means to help policymakers in making appropriate decisions before the occurrence of financial crises.

     Hence, the problem of research is that the fiscal policy has implications for the macro economy and does not rule out its impact on banking stability. Moreover, the central bank does not possess a single indicator that reflects the stability of the banking system, rather than the scattered indicators that depend o

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