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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 28 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Geological Journal
Development of 3D Geological Model and Analysis of the Uncertainty in a Tight Oil Reservoir in the Halfaya Oil Field
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A geological model was built for the Sadi reservoir, located at the Halfaya oil field. It is regarded as one of the most significant oilfields in Iraq. The study includes several steps, the most essential of which was importing well logs from six oil wells to the Interactive Petrophysics software for conducting interpretation and analysis to calculate the petrophysical properties such as permeability, porosity, shale volume, water saturation, and NTG and then importing maps and the well tops to the Petrel software to build the 3D-Geological model and to calculate the value of the original oil in place. Three geological surfaces were produced for all Sadi units based on well-top data and the top Sadi structural map. The reservoir has

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Publication Date
Sat Apr 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The Role of Treasury bills to the most important monetary variables in Iraq for the period 1990 – 2013
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The treasury bills one internal government debt instruments in iraq that were used to finance temporary deficits in the government budget, There fore the government resorted to issuing for the purpose of providing liquidity, As well as to invest in productive progects, After that it was financing the budget deficit by the monetary authovity of  the central baalpennek  [the new cash velease] which led to negative effects on the Iraqi econome, Thus we find that the treasury transfers have formed alarge proportion of the gross domestic government debt to finance the deficit ayear ago 2003.                      &nbs

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 15 2019
Journal Name
Al-academy
Use of the Iraqi Song in the Orchestral Compositions of Hanz Moomer- (Foug Al-Nakhl) as a Model: فراس ياسين جاسم
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The use of the Iraqi song in the symphony orchestra is one of the pioneering and important works, which carries with it an artistic value of aesthetic specificity in how to use the Iraqi singing heritage. The research aimed to identify the employment of the song (Foug Al-Nakhl) and its works within the Iraqi national symphony orchestra music by the author Hans Count Momer whose works still have a great influence on the authors of the Iraqi orchestra.  The researcher presented a brief introduction to the Iraqi Symphony Orchestra, a brief introduction about the author, and the trends of world music towards heritage. He also talked about musical composition, research procedures and tools, and applying the tool to the selected sample (F

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 15 2017
Journal Name
International Journal Of Computer Applications
Assessment of Annual Wind Energy Potential at Three Sites in Iraq for Wind Energy Applications
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Assessment of annual wind energy potential for three selected sites in Iraq has been analyzed in the present work. The wind velocities data from August 2014 to July 2015 were collected from the website of Weather Underground Organization (WUO) at stations elevation (35m, 32m, and 17m) for Baghdad, Najaf, and Kut Al-Hai respectively. Extrapolation of stations elevation and wind velocities was used to estimate wind velocities at (60m, 90m, and 120m). The objectives are to analyze the wind speed data and assess the wind energy potential for wind energy applications. Computer code for MATLAB software has been developed to solve the mathematical model. The results are presented as a monthly and annual average for wind velocities, standard deviat

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 15 2021
Journal Name
Al-academy
The Physical Performance Of The Actor Within The Shows Of Anas Abdul Samad ( the play silence as the cry as a model): حليم هاتف جاسم
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The body has the ability to effect the audience in the the theatrical show , since he or she is transmitter , sender , seen and viewer of the humanitarian discourse as well the the images and connotations of the theatrical show, it is a tool of communication that substitutes for millions of spoken words, the modern schools of direction focused on the body language of the actor and gave it prominence in depicting facts by different connotations. The researcher studies the physical performance of the actor throughout focusing on the connotational dimensions of the body within the theatrical show , as well as the positioning of performative body within the modern schools of direction depending on the theatrical show (Rebuke ) of the Iraqi d

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 30 2013
Journal Name
College Of Islamic Sciences
Abu Ubaidah's interpretative approach to the metaphor of the Qur’an
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In the name of of Allah the Merciful
        Praise be to God, and blessings and peace be upon the Messenger of God, Muhammad, and upon his family and his family and peace, and after:
 The honor of every knowledge of honor is related to it, and since the science of interpretation is related to the Book of God Almighty; it is considered one of the most noble and longest of sciences, and this science began long ago as the early ages of Islam have expanded the Islamic state, and people entered the religion of God in cohorts, and the mixture mixed In tongues, and people did not know much about the meanings of the Qur’an, so the need for authorship in this great knowledge was severe, and pe

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 02 2014
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Determination of Advanced Oxidation Protein Products, E3 SUMO-Protein Ligase NSE2[NSMCE2], as a Marker to Predict Child Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia
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Acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) is a cancer of the blood and bone marrow (spongy tissue in the center of bone). In ALL, too many bone marrow stem cells develop into a type of white blood cell called lymphocytes. These abnormal lymphocytes are not able to fight infection very well. The aim of this study was to investigate possible links between E3 SUMO-Protein Ligase NSE2 [NSMCE2] and increase DNA damage in the childhood patients with Acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). Laboratory investigations including hemoglobin(Hb) ,white blood cell (WBC) , serum total protein , albumin ,globulin , in addition to serum total antioxidant activity (TAA) , Advanced oxidation protein products(AOPP) and E3 SUMO-Protein Ligase NSE2[NSMCE2]. Blood samples

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Publication Date
Sun May 02 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Accounting And Financial Studies ( Jafs )
Evaluating the level of performance according to the tax diagnosis TADAT: applied research in the General Tax Authority
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The aim of the research is to indicate the degree of arrangement of the tax branches discussed and the level of efficiency of their performance according to the dimensions approved in the tax diagnostic tool (TADAT). The checklist has been approved as a main tool in collecting data and information from the tax branches of the General Authority for Taxes and the number (8) branches represented by (Karrada , Karakh Center, Al-Rusafa, New Baghdad, Al-Dora, Karakh Al-Tafim, Al-Kadhimiya, Al-Bayaa),  The statistical program (spss) was used to calculate the weighted arithmetic media, and we reached the research to a number of conclusions, the most important of which were: - Each of the subsections (Karkh Al-Ahram and Karrada) achieved an

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Publication Date
Sun May 18 2025
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal For Administrative Sciences
Using the Statistical Analysis to study the important reasons of the pollution in the Iraqi Marshlands Areas
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The need for detection and investigation of the causes of pollution of the marshes and submit a statistical study evaluated accurately and submitted to the competent authorities and to achieve this goal was used to analyze the factorial analysis and then obtained the results from this analysis from a sample selected from marsh water pollutants which they were: (Electrical Conductivity: EC, Power of Hydrogen: PH, Temperature: T, Turbidity: TU, Total Dissolved Solids: TDS, Dissolved Oxygen: DO). The size of sample (44) sites has been withdrawn and examined in the laboratories of the Iraqi Ministry of Environment. By illustrating SPSS program) the results had been obtained. The most important recommendation was to increase the pumping of addit

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 31 2006
Journal Name
Modern Sport
The standerd Levels of Some Physical abilities based on playing centers of basketball for youngsters
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Research,s Summary The purpose of the research was to specify the standerd Levels for results of basketball for Iraqi young sters, Becuse there werenot the standerd Levels which related to the testings abilities of the players based on plying centers specially the physical abilities, This made weakness in arrangement and putting the suitable training studies for different age stadges which suitable with game ,s requirements, besides evaluation the performance of the plyers in common and the levels of the coachs train in special according to the scientific style. The researchers depended on (8) special testings of chossen physical abilities, These testings applied on the teams, young players for sharing clubs among excellent series of basket

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