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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region

Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 01 2022
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
NEGOTIATION SKILLS OF THE EMPLOYEES OF PUBLIC RELATIONS IN THE GOVERNMENT INSTITUTIONS : (Ministry of Electricity and Ministry of Transportation as a Model)

This research dealt with the subject of negotiation skills of employees in public relations departments which is one of many skills supposed to be available to these employees. These skills combined help in the success of the job of public relations departments; and give them an important and vital role within the roles distributed in the departments of any government institution wither is governmental or non-governmental.

Negotiation is a skill that requires intelligence, tact, culture, information, intuition, and knowing to use the means of communication to access the information that is useful in reaching satisfactory results

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The impact of empowerment strategies on the characteristics of work enrichment An exploratory research to the views of a sample of the leaders of the Ministry of Oil in Iraq

The study aimed to investigate the relationship between empowerment strategies and their impact on the success of enrichment work, it included the dimensions of empowerment strategies (power, knowledge, information, rewards), The dimensions of Job enrichment are (Skill variety, Task identity, Task significance, Autonomy, Feedback). The study was conducted at the headquarters of the Iraqi Oil Ministry in Baghdad and was based on a sample of the leadership of the ministry of managers consisting of 215 people. The data were collected using the questionnaire method based on scientific standards adopted in previous st

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Publication Date
Tue Jan 02 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The effectiveness of a proposed program to solve the problem of mixing Arabic letters similar to the voice of students in the second grade primary

The purpose of this research is to demonstrate the effectiveness of a program to address the problem of mixing similar letters in the Arabic language for students in the second grade of primary and to achieve the goal of the research. The researcher followed the experimental method to suit the nature of this research and found that there are statistically significant differences between the tribal and remote tests, The effectiveness of the proposed educational program. At the end of the research, the researcher recommends several recommendations, the most important of which are: 1 - Training students to correct pronunciation of the outlets, especially in the first three stages of primary education (primary) and the use of direct training

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 14 2022
Journal Name
Al-academy
The genealogy of rough discourse in contemporary theatre (YES, GODOT play) as a model

The research is exposed to the concept of rough discourse in contemporary theater with a critical reading that takes the genealogical work as a starting point in deconstructing the references of rough discourse and pursuing its paths in the civilization and cultural framework and how it identifies aesthetically within the theatrical field and the extents of its procedural treatments in order to reveal it and clarify its limits and representations, as the research included the first chapter. (methodological framework), the second chapter (theoretical framework), which included two sections, the first took place under the title (rough dramatization), while the second topic took place under the title (rough drama), and the second chapter re

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
Bayesian Computational Methods of the Logistic Regression Model
Abstract<p>In this paper, we will discuss the performance of Bayesian computational approaches for estimating the parameters of a Logistic Regression model. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms was the base estimation procedure. We present two algorithms: Random Walk Metropolis (RWM) and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC). We also applied these approaches to a real data set.</p>
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Publication Date
Sun Dec 25 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
The correlation between CYP2C19 Polymorphisms and recurrent risk in Patients with Ischemic Stroke treated with Clopidogrel in Kurdistan region-Iraq

    Clopidogrel is a prodrug that must be transformed into an active metabolite by hepatic cytochrome P450 (CYP) isoenzymes to prevent platelet clotting. Polymorphisms of the CYP2C19 gene can cause a reduction or complete loss of CYP2C19 enzyme activity resulting in inhibiting clopidogrel metabolism, effectiveness and increase stroke recurrence risk in ischemic stroke patients. This study aims to investigate the correlation between genetic polymorphisms in CYP2C19*2 and*3 and recurrent risk in patients with ischemic stroke taking clopidogrel 75mg in Kurdistan region –Iraq. This retrospective case-control study was carried out at Kurdistan, Erbil, Medicina medical center, and Rizgary general hospital from January 2021 to

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 15 2021
Journal Name
Al-academy
Processes directing the scenographic space in the Iraqi theatrical show Shakespeare texts as a model

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 15 2021
Journal Name
Al-academy
Processes directing the scenography space in the Iraqi theatrical show Shakespeare texts as a model

Publication Date
Tue Sep 11 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Analytical study of high absorption region of the absorption edge of a-Si:H using nonlinear regression method

This research is concerned with the re-analysis of optical data (the imaginary part of the dielectric function as a function of photon energy E) of a-Si:H films prepared by Jackson et al. and Ferlauto et al. through using nonlinear regression fitting we estimated the optical energy gap and the deviation from the Tauc model by considering the parameter of energy photon-dependence of the momentum matrix element of the p as a free parameter by assuming that density of states distribution to be a square root function. It is observed for films prepared by Jackson et al. that the value of the parameter p for the photon energy range is is close to the value assumed by the Cody model and the optical gap energy is which is also close to the value

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Publication Date
Thu Jan 23 2025
Journal Name
Opción: Revista De Ciencias Humanas Y Sociales, Issn 1012-1587, Nº. Extra 21, 2019, Págs. 907-927
The Effect Of The Perkins’ And Blythe’s Model On Mathematical Communication Among Students Of The 5Th Bio Scientific Grade In Mathematics

Autorías: Muayad Kadhim Raheem, Lina Fouad Jawad. Localización: Opción: Revista de Ciencias Humanas y Sociales. Nº. 21, 2019. Artículo de Revista en Dialnet.

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