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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Mon Aug 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
"Compared some of the semi-parametric methods in analysis of single index model "
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As the process of  estimate for model and variable selection significant is a crucial process in the semi-parametric modeling At the beginning of the modeling process often At there are many explanatory variables to Avoid the loss of any explanatory elements may be important as a result , the selection of significant variables become necessary , so the process of variable selection is not intended to simplifying  model complexity explanation , and also predicting. In this research was to use some of the semi-parametric methods (LASSO-MAVE , MAVE and The proposal method (Adaptive LASSO-MAVE) for variable selection and estimate semi-parametric single index model (SSIM) at the same time .

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 05 2024
Journal Name
Al-academy
References of the directed education to the Member Teaching Stuff performance in the departments of the art Education
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This study has came as a result to discover on the references of the educational theories which leads the professors in the educational art departments in the Iraqi universities through knowing these ideological references indeed in an important slice of the society. This slice is: the members of professoriate. The study goal knows the ideological references to these theories for the professors in these departments.
In order to approve the research's goals. The researcher has selected a sample contains (50) professoriate members in these departments in the Iraqi universities which they have the educational art profession among the next scientific degrees (assistant teacher. teacher. assistant professor & professor).
The resea

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Publication Date
Tue Apr 04 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Techniques
Comparison Between the Kernel Functions Used in Estimating the Fuzzy Regression Discontinuous Model
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Some experiments need to know the extent of their usefulness to continue providing them or not. This is done through the fuzzy regression discontinuous model, where the Epanechnikov Kernel and Triangular Kernel were used to estimate the model by generating data from the Monte Carlo experiment and comparing the results obtained. It was found that the. Epanechnikov Kernel has a least mean squared error.

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Calibration and verification of the hydraulic model for Blue Nile river from Roseires dam to Khartoum city
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This research represents a practical attempt applied to calibrate and verify a hydraulic model for the Blue Nile River. The calibration procedures are performed using the observed data for a previous period and comparing them with the calibration results while verification requirements are achieved with the application of the observed data for another future period and comparing them with the verification results. The study objective covered a relationship of the river terrain with the distance between the assumed points of the dam failures along the river length. The computed model values and the observed data should conform to the theoretical analysis and the overall verification performance of the model by comparing it with anothe

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Calibration and Verification of the Hydraulic Model for Blue Nile River from Roseires Dam to Khartoum City
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This research represents a practical attempt applied to calibrate and verify a hydraulic model for the Blue Nile River. The calibration procedures are performed using the observed data for a previous period and comparing them with the calibration results while verification requirements are achieved with the application of the observed data for another future period and comparing them with the verification results. The study objective covered a relationship of the river terrain with the distance between the assumed points of the dam failures along the river length. The computed model values and the observed data should conform to the theoretical analysis and the overall verification performance of the model by comparing i

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 20 2019
Journal Name
Political Sciences Journal
The status of the state and its relationship to the concept of force in international relations
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The concept of power despite its implications unclear and unknown was one of the most standards in international relations ambiguity and lack of clarity, however was more standards important and influential in the conduct of international relations, and since that time until today since that ambiguity in the meaning of power and use it as a factor of international relations factors and drive the engines were very different and irony from case to case and from researcher to another, but it may be classified force as the international status enjoyed by the state in the international ocean and here is a structure formed of forces posed by the state, such as economic and political nature of the political system and military power and concept

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 31 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Geological Journal
Optimizing Water Injection Performance by Using Sector Modeling of the Mishrif Formation in West Qurna-1 Oil Field, Southern Iraq
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The regular job of a reservoir engineer is to put a development plan to increase hydrocarbon production as possible and within economic and technical considerations. The development strategy for the giant reservoir is a complex and challenging task through the decision-making analysis process. Due to the limited surface water treatment facility, the reservoir management team focuses on minimizing water cut as low as possible by check the flow of formation and injected water movement through the Mishrif reservoir. In this research, a representative sector was used to make the review of water injection configuration, which is considered an efficient tool to make study in a particular area of the entire field when compared with the ful

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The impact of supporting the pricing policy to improve the production of wheat in Iraq since 2008 through 2014
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Abstract

Despite the fact of the importance and effectiveness of supporting the pricing policy for agriculture sector in Iraq, but this policy has stopped in supporting those agriculture production needs, and it was confined to support the final product only, and supporting the strategic corps exclusively after the U.S. Invasion in 2003, but after 2008 the state has returned to support some of this policy activities through providing financial loans through the agricultural initiative campaign, with trillions of iraqi dinars without any use, also providing support to some of the agricultural production needs such as fertilizers , tractors and agricultural combines, in addition supporting the pricing policy for the

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2009
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Study the Axail Dispersion Model in Ion Exchange Column
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A mathematical model is developed which predicates the performance of cylindrical ion exchange bed involving comparing of axial dispersion model for cation exchange column with different assumption, this model permits the performance to predicate the residence time within the bed with the variance, axial dispersion and Pecklet No. to indicated deviation from plug flow model.

      Two type of systems are chosen for positive ions first with divalent ions (Ca+2) to exchange with resin of Na+1form used as application in  water softener units and second with monovalent ions (Na+1) to exchange with resin of H+1 form used as application in deionize water units &n

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 12 2020
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Optimization the Effect of Electrode Material Change on EDM Process Performance Using Taguchi Method
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Electrical Discharge Machining (EDM) is a widespread Nontraditional Machining (NTM) processes for manufacturing of a complicated geometry or very hard metals parts that are difficult to machine by traditional machining operations. Electrical discharge machining is a material removal (MR) process characterized by using electrical discharge erosion. This paper discusses the optimal parameters of EDM on high-speed steel (HSS) AISI M2 as a workpiece using copper and brass as an electrode. The input parameters used for experimental work are current (10, 24 and 42 A), pulse on time (100, 150 and 200 µs), and pulse off time (4, 12 and 25 µs) that have effect on the material removal rate (MRR), electrode wear rate (EWR) and wear ratio (WR). A

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