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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 31 2025
Journal Name
The Iraqi Geological Journal
Petroleum Hydrodynamic of Oilfields in Basrah, Southern Iraq
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Hydrodynamics is the interpretation of subsurface fluids and pressures to explain and predict hydrocarbon occurrence and trapping. Different models of fluid flow and hydrocarbon entrapments were constructed for the Mishrif Formation in (Rumaila South RU, Rumaila North R, West Qurna WQ, Majnon MJ, and ZubairZB) oilfields in Basra, southern Iraq. The dynamic flow within the oil reservoir was analyzed by measuring the specific gravity, hydrostatic pressure, hydrodynamic pressure, pressure gradient, salinity and hydraulic head. Fluid saturation in the pore space, hydrodynamic parameters, density, permeability and buoyancy influence fluid flow. The hydrodynamic model indicates that the oil fields are non-isolated reservoirs with a unifor

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 20 2021
Journal Name
Bulletin Of The Iraq Natural History Museum
SURVEY OF INSECTS IN SOME SOUTHERN IRAQI MARSHES
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This study included a survey and review of the scientific names of the marsh insects (aquatic and surrounding it) for the purpose of unifying and updating the database. The survey reveals 109 species under 77 genera that belong to 32 families and 7 orders as follow: Coleoptera (44 species), Diptera (7 species) Ephemeroptera (2 species), Hemiptera (14 species), Hymenoptera (11 species), Lepidoptera (2 species) and Odonata with 29 species. Information of specimens' collection for each species, synonyms and geographical distribution were provided.

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 30 2001
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Chemical And Petroleum Engineering
Contamination of Drilling Muds in Southern Iraqi Fields
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Publication Date
Tue Jul 01 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Studies In Humanities And Educational Sciences
The Effect of the Needham Constructivist Model on the Achievement of Third Year Biology Department Students in the Subject of Teaching Methods
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The current research aims to know the effect of Needham's constructivist model on the achievement of third-year students in the Life Sciences Department in the teaching methods subject. To achieve the research objectives, the experimental method was followed for the experimental and control groups with dimensional measurement of the achievement variable of the teaching methods subject. The research sample included (62) students in the third year of the Life Sciences Department, distributed into two equal groups in the variables (self-assessment of learning methods - chronological age in years - intelligence level - previous information). To measure the level of students' achievement, an achievement test was constructed consisting of (40) te

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 21 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
The role of municipal councils in achieving and localizing sustainable development in the local community (The municipality of Al-Shafa area in Ajloun governorate in Jordan as a model)
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Ajloun Governorate is considered the smallest governorate in Jordan in terms of area, and its population density rises to 472.2 people/ km2 and is distributed among five municipalities. The Al-Shafa municipality is one of these municipalities. Al-Shafa is rich in its natural and human resources, and the first municipal council was established in it in 2001.

This study seeks to achieve the following general objective: inventory the natural and human resources that Al-Shafa enjoys, and highlight the role of Al-Shafa municipality in achieving and settling sustainable development for the local community. Certain content, which are: the comprehensive approach to geographical reality, the descriptive

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The social responsibility to the visual media and its role in spreading the culture of the environment protection / field research to a sample of students of the University of Baghdad
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        This paper deals with social responsibility visible to the media and the role they play in spreading the culture of environmental protection, and make research on a sample of the University of Baghdad consisting students from 150 students, male and female were distributed questionnaire form on the sample to obtain the required information has been questionnaire included axes distributed questions achieve the objectives of the search, and after the form data were analyzed using statistical program spss results show that the visual media and its role in spreading the culture of environmental protection form averages arithmetic high, indicating a rise in the influence of th

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 31 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
THE ROLE OF COMMODITY DUMPING IN ENCOURAGING THE IRAQI CONSUMER TO BUY NON- ESSENTIAL GOODS: THE ROLE OF COMMODITY DUMPING IN ENCOURAGING THE IRAQI CONSUMER TO BUY NON- ESSENTIAL GOODS
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ABSTRACT

The research aims to study the effect of the commodity dumping phenomenon that Iraq suffered after 2003 on the consumption pattern of individuals, towards the acquisition of non-essential goods (luxury). To achieve our goal we relied on the questionnaire as a main tool for obtaining information related to the research, and it was distributed on a random sample of consumers in the city of Baghdad with 250 questionnaires. The answers of the research sample were analyzed using the statistical program (SPSS). The percentage weights and the factorial analysis method were used also to arrange the variables that affected on changing consumption patterns. The research reached a set of conclusions:

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 17 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Proposed mechanism to activate the role of the Federal board supreme Audit in the examination of the federal budget estimates of the state
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The aim of the research is to present and discuss the subject of the budgeting estimates and how to activate the role of the Federal board of supreme audit in examining these estimates through reference to Articles 6 and 10 of the Federal board of supreme Law, which did not restrict Federal board of supreme in Preventive control on examination process for planning which is prepared from the government units, as the result of a large amount  of government units Provisions and the weakness of estimates in most of its items, which rely on personal assessment and not based on scientific and logical basis of the estimate, which leads to the emergence of a deficit is not true in the general budget and this seems clear in most Iraq

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Intelligence of the Child in Relation to some Variables
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The Intelligence of the Child in Relation to some Variables

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
USING SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IN DETERMINING THE OPTIMAL&EFFICIENT PRODUCTION PLANS IN GREENHOUSES IN ASSOCIATION OF AL-WATAN UNDER CONDITION OF RISK &UNCERTAINTY
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 The objectives of this research are to determine and find out the reality of crops structure of greenhouses in association of Al-Watan  in order to stand on the optimal use of economic resources available for the purpose of reaching a crop structure optimization of the farm that achieves maximize profit and gross and net farm incomes , using the method of linear programming to choose the farm optimal plan with the highest net income , as well as identifying production plans farm efficient with (income - deviation) optimal (E-A) of the Association and derived, which takes into account the margin risk wich derived from each plan using the model( MOTAD), as a model of models of linear programming alternative programming m

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