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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Wed Oct 17 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
comparison between the methods estimate nonparametric and semiparametric transfer function model in time series the Using simulation
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 The transfer function model the basic concepts in the time series. This model is used in the case of multivariate time series. As for the design of this model, it depends on the available data in the time series and other information in the series so when the representation of the transfer function model depends on the representation of the data In this research, the transfer function has been estimated using the style nonparametric represented in two method  local linear regression and cubic smoothing spline method The method of semi-parametric represented use semiparametric single index model, With four proposals, , That the goal of this research is comparing the capabilities of the above mentioned m

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 20 2019
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Teen-Computer Interaction: Building a Conceptual Model with Thoughts- Emotion-Behaviour
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Teen-Computer Interaction (TeenCI) stands in an infant phase and emerging in positive path. Compared to Human-Computer Interaction (generally dedicated to adult) and Child-Computer Interaction, TeenCI gets less interest in terms of research efforts and publications. This has revealed extensive prospects for researchers to explore and contribute in the region of computer design and evaluation for teen, in specific. As a subclass of HCI and a complementary for CCI, TeenCI that tolerates teen group, should be taken significant concern in the sense of its context, nature, development, characteristics and architecture. This paper tends to discover teen’s emotion contribution as the first attempt towards building a conceptual model for TeenC

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 09 2017
Journal Name
International Journal Of Science And Research (ijsr)
Fingerprints Recognition Using the Local Energy Distribution over Haar Wavelet Subbands
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Fingerprints are commonly utilized as a key technique and for personal recognition and in identification systems for personal security affairs. The most widely used fingerprint systems utilizing the distribution of minutiae points for fingerprint matching and representation. These techniques become unsuccessful when partial fingerprint images are capture, or the finger ridges suffer from lot of cuts or injuries or skin sickness. This paper suggests a fingerprint recognition technique which utilizes the local features for fingerprint representation and matching. The adopted local features have determined using Haar wavelet subbands. The system was tested experimentally using FVC2004 databases, which consists of four datasets, each set holds

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Publication Date
Tue Mar 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Energy Dissipation on the Ogee Spillways by Using Direction Diverting Blocks
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The purpose of this study is to evaluate the hydraulic performance and efficiency of using direction diverting blocks, DDBs, fixed on the surface on an Ogee spillway in reducing the acceleration and dissipating the energy of the incoming supercritical flow. Fifteen types of DDB models were made from wood with a triangulate shape and different sizes were used. Investigation tests on pressure distribution at the DDBs boundaries were curried out to insure there is no negative pressures is developed that cause cavitation. In these tests, thirty six test runs were accomplished by using six types of blocks with the same size but differ in apex angle. Results of these test showed no negative pressures developed at the boundarie

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 12 2010
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
Utilizing the resources of the local environment in the establishment of the constituent units of the urban fabric within the framework of preservation of the urban heritage (Hassan Fathi's model experiment)
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No country in the world has an ancient heritage of its own. It represents the product of the civilizations left behind by previous eras. It represents the development of urban life and its capital of the interest of its people in the field of construction and reconstruction. The urban heritage and its associated arts may seem to be a material heritage at first glance, but it is not free from the spiritual side. Therefore, the nations in different parts of the earth cherish it and care for it with all due diligence, because it mixes with its history, memories and emotions.
This research discusses the use of local environment materials in the production of urban fabric constituents. I

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 25 2018
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Using Multiattribute Analysis to Predicting Effective Porosity of Yamama Formation in Nasriya Oilfield Southern Iraq
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Emerge application was used in Hampsson-Russell programs and that uses a combination of multiple 3D or 2D seismic attributes to predict some reservoir parameter of interest. In this research used the seismic inversion technique was performed on post-stack three dimensions (3D) seismic data in Nasriya oilfield with five wells  and then used this results in  Emerge analysis (training and application) were used to estimate reservoir properties (effective porosity) with multiattribute analysis derive relations  between them at well locations. The horizon time slice of reservoir units of (Yb1, Yb3 and Yc) of Yamama Formation was made for property (effective porosity) to confirm match results and enhancement trends within these

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 31 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Geological Journal
GEOHISTORY ANALYSIS AND BASIN DEVELOPMENT OF THE LATE BERRIASIAN-APTIAN SUCCESSION, SOUTHERN IRAQ
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The studied succession is deposited during late Berriasian-Aptian interval, which is represented by the Zubair, Ratawi, Yamama formations. The present study includes stratigraphic development and basin analysis for 21 boreholes (Rachi-1, 2; Rifaei-1, Diwan- 1; Ratawi-1, 2; Halfaia-5; West Qurna 12, 15; Nahr Umr-7,8; Zubair-47,49; North Rumaila- 72, 131, 158; Suba-7; Majnoon-2, 3 and Luhais-2, 12) distributed within 13 oil fields in the southern Iraq. The back-stripping process determined the original direction of basin depocenter for the studied succession. The Yamama basin in the study area stretches from southeast to southwest with single depocenters, it was located in the southeast of the study area near wells Mj-2, Mj-3.NR-8 and

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 25 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Petroleum Geology
SEQUENCE STRATIGRAPHIC ANALYSIS OF THE MID‐CRETACEOUS MISHRIF FORMATION, SOUTHERN MESOPOTAMIAN BASIN, IRAQ
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The middle Cenomanian – early Turonian Mishrif Formation, a major carbonate reservoir unit in southern Iraq, was studied using cuttings and core samples and wireline logs (gamma‐ray, density and sonic) from 66 wells at 15 oilfields. Depositional facies ranging from deep marine to tidal flat were recorded. Microfacies interpretations together with wireline log interpretations show that the formation is composed of transgressive and regressive hemicycles. The regressive hemicycles are interpreted to indicate the progradation of rudist lithosomes (highstand systems tract deposits) towards distal basinal locations such as the Kumait, Luhais and Abu Amood oilfield areas. Transgressive hemicycles (transgressive systems tract deposits)

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 16 2018
Journal Name
Al-academy
Philosophy of Precognitive Dream in the American Film (Minority Report - a Model)
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When we talk about the foresight in films, it is necessary to talk about dreams because foresight represents one of its distinct types. The Precognitive vision has become a possible material in dealing with as subjects in the film industry that adopt these ideas with their philosophical and scientific orientations, because they represent the imagination that predictors are specialized with. It can be invested through the introduction of a vision of another kind to achieve its goals and ambitions in the film industry and in particular the huge institutions of production as in Hollywood. The cinema works in the light of those concepts of production which found the prognostic dream (the foresight) as a distinctive genre in its films,
Th

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 15 2021
Journal Name
Al-academy
Features of the actor's performance in the ritual theater (Iraqi theater as a model): علي شخير نفل
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The features of the actor's performance in the ritual theater are of great importance and chief in theatrical work since the first emergence of the theater, as the features of the performance were embodied in all Iraqi theatrical performances, but they took personal privacy in some ritual performances because of their differences and similarities between the ritual theatrical performance and the ritual show Al-Khalis, who wanted the researcher to know the similarities and differences in the features of the ritual performance and in the theatrical performance, despite the many transformations that occurred in the theater and affected the features of the performance, but it remained an important and attractive link between the recipient, t

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