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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Southwest Jiaotong University
The Dynamics of an Eco-Epidemiological Model with Allee Effect and Harvesting in the Predator
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The aim of this study was to propose and evaluate an eco-epidemiological model with Allee effect and nonlinear harvesting in predators. It was assumed that there is an SI-type of disease in prey, and only portion of the prey would be attacked by the predator due to the fleeing of the remainder of the prey to a safe area. It was also assumed that the predator consumed the prey according to modified Holling type-II functional response. All possible equilibrium points were determined, and the local and global stabilities were investigated. The possibility of occurrence of local bifurcation was also studied. Numerical simulation was used to further evaluate the global dynamics and the effects of varying parameters on the asymptotic behavior of

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 31 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
THE ROLE OF COMMODITY DUMPING IN ENCOURAGING THE IRAQI CONSUMER TO BUY NON- ESSENTIAL GOODS: THE ROLE OF COMMODITY DUMPING IN ENCOURAGING THE IRAQI CONSUMER TO BUY NON- ESSENTIAL GOODS
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ABSTRACT

The research aims to study the effect of the commodity dumping phenomenon that Iraq suffered after 2003 on the consumption pattern of individuals, towards the acquisition of non-essential goods (luxury). To achieve our goal we relied on the questionnaire as a main tool for obtaining information related to the research, and it was distributed on a random sample of consumers in the city of Baghdad with 250 questionnaires. The answers of the research sample were analyzed using the statistical program (SPSS). The percentage weights and the factorial analysis method were used also to arrange the variables that affected on changing consumption patterns. The research reached a set of conclusions:

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Publication Date
Sun Oct 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The social responsibility to the visual media and its role in spreading the culture of the environment protection / field research to a sample of students of the University of Baghdad
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        This paper deals with social responsibility visible to the media and the role they play in spreading the culture of environmental protection, and make research on a sample of the University of Baghdad consisting students from 150 students, male and female were distributed questionnaire form on the sample to obtain the required information has been questionnaire included axes distributed questions achieve the objectives of the search, and after the form data were analyzed using statistical program spss results show that the visual media and its role in spreading the culture of environmental protection form averages arithmetic high, indicating a rise in the influence of th

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 01 2025
Journal Name
Journal Of Studies In Humanities And Educational Sciences
The Effect of the Needham Constructivist Model on the Achievement of Third Year Biology Department Students in the Subject of Teaching Methods
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The current research aims to know the effect of Needham's constructivist model on the achievement of third-year students in the Life Sciences Department in the teaching methods subject. To achieve the research objectives, the experimental method was followed for the experimental and control groups with dimensional measurement of the achievement variable of the teaching methods subject. The research sample included (62) students in the third year of the Life Sciences Department, distributed into two equal groups in the variables (self-assessment of learning methods - chronological age in years - intelligence level - previous information). To measure the level of students' achievement, an achievement test was constructed consisting of (40) te

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2020
Journal Name
Marine And Petroleum Geology
Chemical and isotope composition of the oilfield brines from Mishrif Formation (southern Iraq): Diagenesis and geothermometry
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Publication Date
Wed Feb 22 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Paleoenvironments and Sequence Stratigraphy of the Turonian-Lower Campanian Succession at Majnoon Oil Field, Southern Iraq
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The Turonian-Lower Companian succession at Majnoon Oil Field is represented by the Khasib, Tanuma, and Saadi formations. Four major paleoenvironments were recognized within the studied succession, there are: Shallow open marine environment, shoal environment, deep marine environment, and basinal environment. They reflect deposition on a carbonate platform of homoclinal ramp setting. The studied succession represents two second order supersequences (A) and (B). Supersequence (A) includes both the Khasib and Tanuma formations. The Saadi Formation represents cycle (B). These second order cycles can be divided each into two third order cycles, This subdivision may reflect the effect of eustacy being the major controlling factor of cycles dev

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 15 2022
Journal Name
Al-academy
The Relationship Between Using Diverse Materials to the Intellectual Context's in the Art of Contemporary Ceramic
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The use of different materials in the art of ceramics is considered a new form of contemporary philosophical trends. That was introduced to art as a result of societal changes and transformations and rapid technological development. And it plays a very essential part in the beauty of the artistic structure. The contrast of using different materials in ceramics is considered a part of the old historical achievements since the art of ceramics used to follow strict standards. Which does not apply to contemporary ceramic, Because recently, it has become free from any religious and social control and created a whole new intellectual context, heading to new horizons in which it works with the newly added materials as a strategy to ensure the a

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The Intelligence of the Child in Relation to some Variables
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The Intelligence of the Child in Relation to some Variables

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 15 2021
Journal Name
Al-academy
The design of the scene according to the interactive theory in the Iraqi theater show: دريد هاشم شكور
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The theater has live foundations that interact with all symbols and signs. It has never been far from these innovations and developments in the manner of dealing with those symbols and how and the extent of their effects on society through the world of technology because the theatrical performance contributes to its structure, a technique that is employed by designers in various technologies such as ( Music, lighting and sound effects engineer, as well as fashion designer, architecture, and modeling designer). The theater today also relied on various interactive techniques represented in the use of body language and a sign in order to communicate the meaning by forming movements, singing and dancing in order for the recipient to interact

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Publication Date
Tue Jun 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
Alternative development in the proposed model of the Strategy for Empowerment and Spatial Sustainable Development/ Baghdad Governorate Council as a case study
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This research mainly aims to analyze local development strategy in Baghdad Governance, build the Strategic Model based on the study area's spatial interaction, and achieve the Trinity of Excellence based on the global model of excellence.

           This research applied SWOT strategic analysis for the strengths and weaknesses of the internal environment and opportunities and threats of the external environment for the provincial council. In conclusion, the research specifies appropriate alternatives and choosing the best in line with the reality of the Baghdad Provincial Council. Also, the strategic goals in the national plan and the spatial interaction of the development goals,

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