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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Wed Feb 20 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Calculation the optical energy band gap of LR115 SSNTD irradiated by α particle
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The effect of α-particle irradiation on the optical absorption in nuclear track detectors (LR115) has been studied. These detectors have been irradiated with different doses. The optical absorption has been measured using the ultraviolet-visible (UV-1100) spectroscopy, that irradiation results in shifting the peaks of the optical absorption. The values of Urbach energy have been calculated from the position of steady-state optical band gap energy, for a standard sample which was unirradiated with indirect influence, has been found 1.9 eV  whereas its value after irradiation 1.98 eV. In case of the direct influence, it is found to be, respectively, before irradiation 1.98 eV and after irradiation 2.05 eV. From these results, we can

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 30 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Theoretical And Applied Information Technology
FINGERPRINTS MATCHING USING THE ENERGY AND LOW ORDER MOMENT OF HAAR WAVELET SUBBANDS
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Fingerprint recognition is one among oldest procedures of identification. An important step in automatic fingerprint matching is to mechanically and dependably extract features. The quality of the input fingerprint image has a major impact on the performance of a feature extraction algorithm. The target of this paper is to present a fingerprint recognition technique that utilizes local features for fingerprint representation and matching. The adopted local features have determined: (i) the energy of Haar wavelet subbands, (ii) the normalized of Haar wavelet subbands. Experiments have been made on three completely different sets of features which are used when partitioning the fingerprint into overlapped blocks. Experiments are conducted on

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Southwest Jiaotong University
The Dynamics of an Eco-Epidemiological Model with Allee Effect and Harvesting in the Predator
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The aim of this study was to propose and evaluate an eco-epidemiological model with Allee effect and nonlinear harvesting in predators. It was assumed that there is an SI-type of disease in prey, and only portion of the prey would be attacked by the predator due to the fleeing of the remainder of the prey to a safe area. It was also assumed that the predator consumed the prey according to modified Holling type-II functional response. All possible equilibrium points were determined, and the local and global stabilities were investigated. The possibility of occurrence of local bifurcation was also studied. Numerical simulation was used to further evaluate the global dynamics and the effects of varying parameters on the asymptotic behavior of

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 01 2022
Journal Name
Lark Journal
The role of metaphor in the embodiment of female images (In the novel by Ludmila Ulitskaya "Sincerely Yours Shurik" as model)
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The research deals with metaphors as being one of the primary means used by Lyudmila Ulitskaya when writing the novel " Sincerely Yours Shurik ", to form diverse and multifaceted collective female images of representatives of the classic psychological patterns presented in the work. This research reflects the results of the study related to the work of Lyudmila Yevkinevna Ulitskaya, an actress of modern Russian prose. The novel "The Sincerely to You Shorek" is one of Ludmila Ulitskaya's creations (the year of writing - 2003), which, like her other works, is distinguished by a unique presentation style, rich vocabulary, lexical and semantic diversity, and a special style of writing. writer. The main objective of the research is to look at th

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 07 2019
Journal Name
Iraqi National Journal Of Nursing Specialties
Determination of the Cardiac Patients Knowledge toward Using Anticoagulant Medications at Missan Governorate Hospitals
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Objective- the study aim to determine the cardiac patient knowledge about anticoagulant medications using and its relationship with demographic data(age. gender. level of education. occupational). Methodology- A descriptive study(quasi-experimental)design was carried out to determine cardiac patient knowledge consider to using anticoagulant medications . Starting from(1th Jun 2017 to5th October 2018).To achieve the objectives of the study, a non-probability sample (a purposive sample) consisted of random sample comprised of (30) patients were taken anticoagulant medications ..The measurement of patient knowledge were collected through the use of questionnaire which is related to patient knowledge toward using the anticoagulant medication

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Publication Date
Wed Sep 21 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Planner And Development
The role of municipal councils in achieving and localizing sustainable development in the local community (The municipality of Al-Shafa area in Ajloun governorate in Jordan as a model)
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Ajloun Governorate is considered the smallest governorate in Jordan in terms of area, and its population density rises to 472.2 people/ km2 and is distributed among five municipalities. The Al-Shafa municipality is one of these municipalities. Al-Shafa is rich in its natural and human resources, and the first municipal council was established in it in 2001.

This study seeks to achieve the following general objective: inventory the natural and human resources that Al-Shafa enjoys, and highlight the role of Al-Shafa municipality in achieving and settling sustainable development for the local community. Certain content, which are: the comprehensive approach to geographical reality, the descriptive

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Publication Date
Thu Mar 12 2020
Journal Name
Al-khwarizmi Engineering Journal
Optimization the Effect of Electrode Material Change on EDM Process Performance Using Taguchi Method
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Electrical Discharge Machining (EDM) is a widespread Nontraditional Machining (NTM) processes for manufacturing of a complicated geometry or very hard metals parts that are difficult to machine by traditional machining operations. Electrical discharge machining is a material removal (MR) process characterized by using electrical discharge erosion. This paper discusses the optimal parameters of EDM on high-speed steel (HSS) AISI M2 as a workpiece using copper and brass as an electrode. The input parameters used for experimental work are current (10, 24 and 42 A), pulse on time (100, 150 and 200 µs), and pulse off time (4, 12 and 25 µs) that have effect on the material removal rate (MRR), electrode wear rate (EWR) and wear ratio (WR). A

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Publication Date
Mon Dec 01 2014
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
USING SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IN DETERMINING THE OPTIMAL&EFFICIENT PRODUCTION PLANS IN GREENHOUSES IN ASSOCIATION OF AL-WATAN UNDER CONDITION OF RISK &UNCERTAINTY
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 The objectives of this research are to determine and find out the reality of crops structure of greenhouses in association of Al-Watan  in order to stand on the optimal use of economic resources available for the purpose of reaching a crop structure optimization of the farm that achieves maximize profit and gross and net farm incomes , using the method of linear programming to choose the farm optimal plan with the highest net income , as well as identifying production plans farm efficient with (income - deviation) optimal (E-A) of the Association and derived, which takes into account the margin risk wich derived from each plan using the model( MOTAD), as a model of models of linear programming alternative programming m

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 01 2018
Journal Name
International Journal Of Heat And Mass Transfer
Accelerated melting of PCM in energy storage systems via novel configuration of fins in the triplex-tube heat exchanger
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Publication Date
Sat Dec 31 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
THE ROLE OF COMMODITY DUMPING IN ENCOURAGING THE IRAQI CONSUMER TO BUY NON- ESSENTIAL GOODS: THE ROLE OF COMMODITY DUMPING IN ENCOURAGING THE IRAQI CONSUMER TO BUY NON- ESSENTIAL GOODS
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ABSTRACT

The research aims to study the effect of the commodity dumping phenomenon that Iraq suffered after 2003 on the consumption pattern of individuals, towards the acquisition of non-essential goods (luxury). To achieve our goal we relied on the questionnaire as a main tool for obtaining information related to the research, and it was distributed on a random sample of consumers in the city of Baghdad with 250 questionnaires. The answers of the research sample were analyzed using the statistical program (SPSS). The percentage weights and the factorial analysis method were used also to arrange the variables that affected on changing consumption patterns. The research reached a set of conclusions:

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