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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 04 2022
Journal Name
Environmental Science And Pollution Research
Geographically weighted regression model for physical, social, and economic factors affecting the COVID-19 pandemic spreading
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Abstract<p>This study aims to analyze the spatial distribution of the epidemic spread and the role of the physical, social, and economic characteristics in this spreading. A geographically weighted regression (GWR) model was built within a GIS environment using infection data monitored by the Iraqi Ministry of Health records for 10 months from March to December 2020. The factors adopted in this model are the size of urban interaction areas and human gatherings, movement level and accessibility, and the volume of public services and facilities that attract people. The results show that it would be possible to deal with each administrative unit in proportion to its circumstances in light of the factors that appe</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Tue Aug 01 2023
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Earth And Environmental Science
Estimate Raw Water Salinity for the Tigris River for a Long Time Using a Mathematical Model
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Abstract<p>The measurement data of the raw water quality of Tigris River were statistically analyzed to measure the salinity value in relation to the selected raw water quality parameters. The analyzed data were collected from five water treatment plants (WTPs) assembled alongside of the Tigris River in Baghdad: Al-Karkh, Al-Karama, Al-Qadisiya, Al-Dora, and Al-Wihda for the period from 2015 to 2021. The selected parameters are total dissolved solid (TDS), electrical conductivity (EC), pH and temperature. The main objective of this research is to predicate a mathematical model using SPSS software to calculate the value of salinity along the river, in addition, the effect of electrical conductivi</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Mon Feb 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
The Fear Effect on a Food Chain Prey-Predator Model Incorporating a Prey Refuge and Harvesting
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Abstract<p>In this paper, we investigate the impact of fear on a food chain mathematical model with prey refuge and harvesting. The prey species reproduces by to the law of logistic growth. The model is adapted from version of the Holling type-II prey-first predator and Lotka-Volterra for first predator-second predator model. The conditions, have been examined that assurance the existence of equilibrium points. Uniqueness and boundedness of the solution of the system have been achieve. The local and global dynamical behaviors are discussed and analyzed. In the end, numerical simulations are confirmed the theoretical results that obtained and to display the effectiveness of varying each parameter</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Sun Dec 12 2021
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Pharmaceutical Sciences ( P-issn 1683 - 3597 E-issn 2521 - 3512)
Gender Differences in Adverse Drug Reactions Among Adult Patients Reported to the Iraqi Pharmacovigilance Center
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For many years it was argued that there may be a gender differences in adverse drug reactions (ADRs). This assumption was based on many possible factors such as hormonal or behavior differences, and it was not clearly identified since the female gender was not preferred to be enrolled in many clinical trials. The primary aim of this study was to assess the extent of possibly relevant gender differences in drug–ADRs regarding causality, severity, preventability, seriousness, expectedness and outcome. While the secondary aim was to assess for which group of drugs and for which ADRs gender differences are identified most often. The study was a retrospective one that depends on processing a specially selected group of data obtained from th

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2011
Journal Name
North American Journal Of Medical Sciences
Urinary tract infections caused by staphylococcus aureus DNA in comparison to the candida albicans DNA
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Background: Bacterial DNA released upon bacterial autolysis or killed by antibiotics, hence, many inflammatogenic reactions will be established leading to serious tissue damage. Aim: the present work aimed to elucidate the histopathological changes caused by prokaryotic (bacterial) DNA and eukaryotic (candidal) DNA. Materials and methods: twenty one Staphylococcus aureus and 36 Candida albicans isolates were isolated from UTI patients. Viable cells and DNA of the highest antibiotic sensitive isolates were injected, intraurethraly, in mice. Results were evaluated via histopathological examination. Results: Mildest reactions were obtained from mice challenged with viable C. albicans compared with those challenged with viable S. aureus. Dos

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 31 2025
Journal Name
Iraqi Geological Journal
1D Geomechanical Modeling to Detect the Deformation in Mishrif Formation at Nasriyah Oil Field, Iraq
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Knowing the distribution of the mechanical rock properties and in-situ stresses for the field of interest is essential for many applications concerning reservoir geomechanics, including wellbore instability analysis, hydraulic fracturing, sand production, reservoir compaction, subsidence and water/gas injection throughout the filed life cycle. Determining the rock's mechanical properties is challenging because they cannot be directly measured at the borehole. The recovered carbonate core samples are limited and only provide discrete data for specific depths. This study focuses on creating a detailed 1D geomechanical model of the Mishrif reservoir in the Nasriyah oil field to identify the fault regime type for each unit in the format

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 21 2024
Journal Name
Edelweiss Applied Science And Technology
Using count regression models to investigate the most important economic factors affecting divorce in Iraq
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The two most popular models inwell-known count regression models are Poisson and negative binomial regression models. Poisson regression is a generalized linear model form of regression analysis used to model count data and contingency tables. Poisson regression assumes the response variable Y has a Poisson distribution, and assumes the logarithm of its expected value can be modeled by a linear combination of unknown parameters. Negative binomial regression is similar to regular multiple regression except that the dependent (Y) variables an observed count that follows the negative binomial distribution. This research studies some factors affecting divorce using Poisson and negative binomial regression models. The factors are unemplo

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 15 2021
Journal Name
Al-academy
The aesthetic work of theatrical rehearsal and its directing applications "Taqasim on Al-Hayat Play as a model"
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This research reviews the aesthetic variables that were founded according to (theatrical rehearsal) as one of the most important pillars on which the theatrical process is based, because of its necessity in developing theatrical art on several levels that helped the theatrical director in organizing his work, and this became clear through the research chapters represented in the first chapter (methodological framework) and the second chapter, which consisted of the first topic (the duality of watching / rehearsal) and the second topic (the applications of theatrical rehearsal in theatrical experiences), all the way to the third chapter (research procedures), which included the analysis of theatrical rehearsals (sharing on life), and the

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 25 2019
Journal Name
Al-academy
Melodic Characteristics of Oud Instrument Compositions with the Iraqi Symphony Orchestra (Saleem Salim) A Model: رعد عدنان علوان
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The variety of ideas and freedom of expression among the authors who are looking for everything new that serves the goals of musical and aesthetic expression, which calls for the use of traditional musical instruments with the great composition of musical instruments known as the orchestra represents a great challenge in several aspects. The incompetence of some of these instruments or limited capabilities or its costly method of performance sometimes forbids its use permanently in this great composition. It was necessary to have some problems facing the composer and the player on the one hand and the recipient on the other hand, who must be looking for perfection. Among those instruments that are used regularly in the works of the orche

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 02 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
The human sense organs and it's significance In the great Qur'an: The human sense organs and it's significance In the great Qur'an
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Abstract:
Thanks for people's God who brought the great book, prays and peace for
his prophet "Mohammad" the master of missioners to all people.
Allah created human being in it's best way and give him a soul thus ,
he will be a human with faith that has movement and life and the centre of his
soul is the sense which differentiate human from other animals. This
sensation generated from different senses that made the soul.
God had given him a protected heart, talkative tounge and clear seeing
to understand with consideration, so he will prevent himself of falling in wrong
by thinking and situation that he will pass by.
The significance and probability of sensation had talken our attention in
Qur'an . Hence

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