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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 04 2010
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The effect of two treatment methods in the gaining of fourth grade students in geography object.
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research aim :
- The research aimed to investigate the effect of two treatment
methods in the gaining of fourth grade students in geography
object.
- Research hypothesis
 there are no statistically significant differences at the level of ( 0.05 )
in the average level of achievement in geography between the first
experimental group ( strengthening lessons ) and the second group
( re- teaching )
 no individual differences statically significant at the level of ( 0.05 )
in the average level achievement in geography object of the second
experimental group ( re- teaching ) and the first experimental group
( strengthening lesson )
 the research sample : the researcher selected randomly Baghdad

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 15 2021
Journal Name
Al-academy
The aesthetic work of theatrical rehearsal and its directing applications "Taqasim on Al-Hayat Play as a model"
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This research reviews the aesthetic variables that were founded according to (theatrical rehearsal) as one of the most important pillars on which the theatrical process is based, because of its necessity in developing theatrical art on several levels that helped the theatrical director in organizing his work, and this became clear through the research chapters represented in the first chapter (methodological framework) and the second chapter, which consisted of the first topic (the duality of watching / rehearsal) and the second topic (the applications of theatrical rehearsal in theatrical experiences), all the way to the third chapter (research procedures), which included the analysis of theatrical rehearsals (sharing on life), and the

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 25 2019
Journal Name
Al-academy
Melodic Characteristics of Oud Instrument Compositions with the Iraqi Symphony Orchestra (Saleem Salim) A Model: رعد عدنان علوان
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The variety of ideas and freedom of expression among the authors who are looking for everything new that serves the goals of musical and aesthetic expression, which calls for the use of traditional musical instruments with the great composition of musical instruments known as the orchestra represents a great challenge in several aspects. The incompetence of some of these instruments or limited capabilities or its costly method of performance sometimes forbids its use permanently in this great composition. It was necessary to have some problems facing the composer and the player on the one hand and the recipient on the other hand, who must be looking for perfection. Among those instruments that are used regularly in the works of the orche

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Publication Date
Fri Aug 26 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Advanced Research In Hr And Organizational Management
The Role of the Talent Management Strategy in Achieving the Entrepreneurial Performance of the Organization
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The research aims to identify Determination talent management dimensions of (attracting talent, developing talent, directing talent, performance management talent, retain talent) in the entrepreneurial performance of the organization dimensions of (advance planning, efficiency, effectiveness), so search occupies the extreme importance of being treated important and recent issue of the performance Entrepreneuria, management talent, aware of the importance of the subject and expected results of the company surveyed, was an analysis of data obtained through field visits in addition to the questionnaire and interviews, highlights were the results that have been reached to take the sample into account all the management requirements knack of att

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Publication Date
Mon Feb 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Physics: Conference Series
The Fear Effect on a Food Chain Prey-Predator Model Incorporating a Prey Refuge and Harvesting
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Abstract<p>In this paper, we investigate the impact of fear on a food chain mathematical model with prey refuge and harvesting. The prey species reproduces by to the law of logistic growth. The model is adapted from version of the Holling type-II prey-first predator and Lotka-Volterra for first predator-second predator model. The conditions, have been examined that assurance the existence of equilibrium points. Uniqueness and boundedness of the solution of the system have been achieve. The local and global dynamical behaviors are discussed and analyzed. In the end, numerical simulations are confirmed the theoretical results that obtained and to display the effectiveness of varying each parameter</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Tue Aug 01 2023
Journal Name
Iop Conference Series: Earth And Environmental Science
Estimate Raw Water Salinity for the Tigris River for a Long Time Using a Mathematical Model
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Abstract<p>The measurement data of the raw water quality of Tigris River were statistically analyzed to measure the salinity value in relation to the selected raw water quality parameters. The analyzed data were collected from five water treatment plants (WTPs) assembled alongside of the Tigris River in Baghdad: Al-Karkh, Al-Karama, Al-Qadisiya, Al-Dora, and Al-Wihda for the period from 2015 to 2021. The selected parameters are total dissolved solid (TDS), electrical conductivity (EC), pH and temperature. The main objective of this research is to predicate a mathematical model using SPSS software to calculate the value of salinity along the river, in addition, the effect of electrical conductivi</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Fri Mar 04 2022
Journal Name
Environmental Science And Pollution Research
Geographically weighted regression model for physical, social, and economic factors affecting the COVID-19 pandemic spreading
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Abstract<p>This study aims to analyze the spatial distribution of the epidemic spread and the role of the physical, social, and economic characteristics in this spreading. A geographically weighted regression (GWR) model was built within a GIS environment using infection data monitored by the Iraqi Ministry of Health records for 10 months from March to December 2020. The factors adopted in this model are the size of urban interaction areas and human gatherings, movement level and accessibility, and the volume of public services and facilities that attract people. The results show that it would be possible to deal with each administrative unit in proportion to its circumstances in light of the factors that appe</p> ... Show More
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Publication Date
Thu Jun 30 2016
Journal Name
Al-kindy College Medical Journal
The effect of inhaled corticosteroid on salivary cytokine level in relation to Candida albicans among asthmatic children
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Background: Asthma is a common chronic disease in children in which the body’s airways swell, preventing the lungs from filling with air, there are many different inflammatory cells involved in asthma which can synthesize and release cytokines which are recognized to be important in chronic inflammation and play a critical role in the inflammatory response. Objectives: to assess the local effect of ICS on oral tissue by measuring Interlukine-12 level and Candida albicans colony in saliva among12 year's old asthmatic children who were collected from AL- Zahra Center Advisory for Allergy and Asthma, and compares them with non-asthmatic children of the same age and gender.Type of the study: Cross –sectional study.Methods: The total samp

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Designing Primers with a Plant Signal Peptide to Enhance the Expression of GBA1 in Transgenic Soybean Plants
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Transgenic plants offer advantages for the manufacture of recombinant proteins with terminal
mannose residues on their glycan chains. So plants are chosen as source of pharmaceutical products and for
the development of alternative expression systems to produce recombinant lysosomal enzymes. In the
present study the sequence of the natural cDNA encoding for the human lysosomal enzyme
glucocerebrosidase (GCD) was modified to enhance its expression in soybean plants. The glucocerebrosidase
gene signal peptide was substituted with that signal peptide for the Arabidopsis thaliana basic endochitinase
gene to support the co-translational translocation into the endoplasmic reticulum (ER), and the storage
vacuol

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Publication Date
Thu Jun 01 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Analysis of Traditional and Fuzzy Quality Control Charts to Improve Short-Run Production in the Manufacturing Industry
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Quality control charts are limited to controlling one characteristic of a production process, and it needs a large amount of data to determine control limits to control the process. Another limitation of the traditional control chart is that it doesn’t deal with the vague data environment. The fuzzy control charts work with the uncertainty that exists in the data. Also, the fuzzy control charts investigate the random variations found between the samples. In modern industries, productivity is often of different designs and a small volume that depends on the market need for demand (short-run production) implemented in the same type of machines to the production units. In such cases, it is difficult to determine the contr

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