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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 08 2015
Journal Name
International Journal Of Advanced Multidisciplinary Research
Machinery Unit Energy Requirement and Fuel Consumption Tractor in Operation Tillage
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The study was carried out at field agriculture in Baghdad–Iraq in 2015. For purpose evaluated the performance the selected implements tillage, suitable tire pressure and speed tractor under silt clay loam to measured Effective field capacity, Actual Time for plowing One Donam ( hr), Appearance Tillage ( number of clods > 10 cm), Fuel consumption measure in two unit (L/Donam and L/hr) and Machinery Unit Energy Requirement ( kw.hr / Donam). Split – split plot design under randomized complete block design with three replications using Least Significant Design 5 % was used. Three factor used in this experiment included Two types of plows included Chisel and Disk plows which represented main plot, Three Tires Inflation Pressure was second fa

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Proposed method to estimate missing values in Non - Parametric multiple regression model
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In this paper, we will provide a proposed method to estimate missing values for the Explanatory variables for Non-Parametric Multiple Regression Model and compare it with the Imputation Arithmetic mean Method, The basis of the idea of this method was based on how to employ the causal relationship between the variables in finding an efficient estimate of the missing value, we rely on the use of the Kernel estimate by Nadaraya – Watson Estimator , and on Least Squared Cross Validation (LSCV) to estimate the Bandwidth, and we use the simulation study to compare between the two methods.

 

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 08 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Use special Erwa to determine the number of live bacteria in different models
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Used in the study especially calibrated Erwa to determine the number of neighborhood or the Alayoshi number of bacteria in the count modeling and casting method dishes in addition to using the drop method yielded significant results for a match between the methods used ..

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Publication Date
Tue Jul 11 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effect of Daniel's Model on the Achievement of Chemistry Among Fifth Grade Student
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The aim of this research is to find out the influence of Daniel's model on the skills of the twenty-first century among the students of the scientific-fifth grade at the secondary and preparatory government morning schools for the academic year 2022- 2023. Two groups were chosen out of five groups for the fifth-scientific grade, one of which represents the experimental group that is taught by the Daniel model, and the other is the control group that is taught in the traditional method. The equivalence of the two research groups was verified with a set of variables. As for the research tool, a scale was developed by the researchers for the skills of the twenty-first century, in which they adopted the framework of the Partnership Organizat

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
3rd International Scientific Conference Of Alkafeel University (iscku 2021)
Analysis of X-ray diffraction lines profile of Tio2 nanoparticles to determine the energy per unit volume and stress by using Halder-Wagner method
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In this study, the Halder-Wagner method was used for an analysisX-ray lines of Tio2 nanoparticles. Where the software was used to calculate the FWHM and integral breath (β) to calculate the area under the curve for each of the lines of diffraction. After that, the general equation of the halder- Wagner method is applied to calculate the volume (D), strain (ε), stress (σ), and energy per unit(u). Volume (β). Where the value of the crystal volume was equal to (0.16149870 nm) and the strain was equal to (1.044126), stress (181.678 N / m2), and energy per unit volume (94.8474 J m-3).The results obtained from these methods were then compared with those obtained from each of the new paradigm of the HalderWagner method, the Shearer developm

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Publication Date
Wed Nov 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Estimate the distribution parameters for the best rates of rainfall in Iraq
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This paper presents a statistical study for a suitable distribution of rainfall in the provinces of Iraq

 Using two types of distributions for the period (2005-2015). The researcher suggested log normal distribution, Mixed exponential distribution of each rovince were tested with the distributions to determine the optimal distribution of rainfall in Iraq. The distribution will be selected on the basis of minimum standards produced some goodness of fit  tests, which are to determine

Akaike (CAIC), Bayesian Akaike (BIC),  Akaike (AIC). It has been applied to distributions to find the right distribution of the data of rainfall in the provinces of Iraq was used (maximu

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Publication Date
Sat Feb 01 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Evaluation of banking performance according to the CAMELS model An applied study of Al-Mansour Investment Bank for the period 2014-2018.
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The banking sector has a significant impact on the economic growth of the country, and the importance of this sector must assess its financial performance from time to time, to measure the situation related to money for each bank and how to put the supervision of the efficiency of the full. The research aims at evaluating the financial performance according to the elements of the CAMELS model, which including capital adequacy, asset quality, management efficiency, profitability, liquidity, and market risk sensitivity. The research included the study of Al-Mansour Investment Bank during the period from 2014 to 2018. The base capital ratio was used to total assets to measure capital adequacy The proportion of investments to total a

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Determine Optimal Preventive Maintenance Time Using Scheduling Method
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In this paper, the reliability and scheduling of maintenance of some medical devices were estimated by one variable, the time variable (failure times) on the assumption that the time variable for all devices has the same distribution as (Weibull distribution.

The method of estimating the distribution parameters for each device was the OLS method.

The main objective of this research is to determine the optimal time for preventive maintenance of medical devices. Two methods were adopted to estimate the optimal time of preventive maintenance. The first method depends on the maintenance schedule by relying on information on the cost of maintenance and the cost of stopping work and acc

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The use of management principles to Fayol in the implementation of competitive strategies Porter
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This paper aims to review the intellectual to the most important thought leaders administrative and strategic They both (Henry Fayol and Michelle Porter), who forward a lot of ideas that have helped countries in the advancement and progress their economies , has been drawing literature theoretical common border in Contributions ( Fayol ) philosophical and between applications ( Porter ), which reversed strategies of the three ( the leadership of the cost, differentiation, and focus ), so browse search how to apply and use the principles of Fayol in the implementation of strategies competitiveness of Porter, and stems from a problem ( ( to what extent a reflection of the principles ( Fayol) fourteen strategies (Porter ) competitiv

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Publication Date
Sun Feb 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
The possibility of applying CAPP technology to improve the quality of the product
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     The research deals with A very important two subjects, computer aided process planning (CAPP) and Quality of product with its dimintions which identified by the producer organization, the goal of the research is to Highlight and know the role of the CAPP technology to improve quality of the product of (rotor) in the engines factory in the general company for electrical industries, The research depends case study style by the direct visits of researcher to the work location to apply the operational paths generated by specialized computer program designed by researcher, and research divides into four axes, the first regard to the general structure of the research, the second to the theoretical review, the t

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