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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Sat Jun 06 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of The College Of Education For Women
Geographical Distribution of Power Plants in Iraq in 2015 Using Geographic Information Systems
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The study aims to study the geographical distribution of electricpower plants in Iraq, except the governorates of Kurdistan Region (Dohuk, Erbil, Sulaymaniyah) due to lack of data.

In order to reach the goal of the research was based on some mathematical equations and statistical methods to determine how the geographical distribution of these stations (gas, hydropower, steam, diesel) within the provinces and the concentration of them as well as the possibility of the classification of power plants in Iraq to facilitate understanding of distribution in a scientific manner is characterized by objectively.

The most important results of the research are that there are a number of factors that led to the irregular distribution

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Publication Date
Sat Dec 31 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Seemingly Unrelated Regression Model to Measure the Profitability of Some Iraqi Private Commercial Banks with Presence of Outliers
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A seemingly uncorrelated regression (SUR) model is a special case of multivariate models, in which the error terms in these equations are contemporaneously related. The method estimator (GLS) is efficient because it takes into account the covariance structure of errors, but it is also very sensitive to outliers. The robust SUR estimator can dealing outliers. We propose two robust methods for calculating the estimator, which are (S-Estimations, and FastSUR). We find that it significantly improved the quality of SUR model estimates. In addition, the results gave the FastSUR method superiority over the S method in dealing with outliers contained in the data set, as it has lower (MSE and RMSE) and higher (R-Squared and R-Square Adjus

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Publication Date
Sun Jul 03 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
The Effect of Danials model in concepts Acquisition of Education Principles on Studets at college of Education .
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The research aims at identifyiny the effect of (Danials Model) in concepts Acquisition of Education Principles on Students at college at Education The total unmber of Students , is (65) male and female Students distributed in two groups . The First group is the experiemental group which is taught the (Danials Model) and is (34) Students . The second groupe is the control group which is taught the traditional method of teaching and it is (31) Students . The researcher has matcheol between the two groupe by the following variables : the age , (in monthes) their intelligence their parents a cademic leve of education . The research has constructed a test of (20) items of multiple choice test . The reliability of The test has been cal

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Publication Date
Wed Mar 10 2021
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Analysis of the performance of a fiber optic sensor used to measure the intensity of the electric field
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In this research was conducted to provide a product to analyze the performance sensor fiber optic used to measure and feel the intensity of the electric field results showed obtained that use sensor long gives reactive high electric field strength and a high value for allergic sensor, but that is at the expense of reducing the intensity of the electric field that is detected

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 01 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparison of estimation methods for regression model parametersIn the case of the problem of linear multiplicity and abnormal values
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 A simulation study is used to examine the robustness of some estimators on a multiple linear regression model with problems of multicollinearity and non-normal errors, the Ordinary least Squares (LS) ,Ridge Regression, Ridge Least Absolute Value (RLAV), Weighted Ridge (WRID), MM and a robust ridge regression estimator MM estimator, which denoted as RMM this is the modification of the Ridge regression by incorporating robust MM estimator . finialy, we show that RMM is the best among the other estimators

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 01 2020
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
Chaotic features of energy spectrum in 68Ge Nucleus Using the Nuclear Shell Model
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   Chaotic features of nuclear energy spectrum in 68Ge nucleus are investigated by nuclear shell model. The energies are calculated through doing shell model calculations employing the OXBASH computer code with effective interaction of F5PVH. The 68Ge nucleus is supposed to have an inert core of 56Ni with 12 nucleons (4 protons and 8 neutrons) move in the f5p-model space ( and ). The nuclear level density of considered classes of states is seen to have a Gaussian form, which is in accord with the prediction of other theoretical studies. The statistical fluctuations of the energy spectrum (the level spacing P(s) and the Dyson-Mehta (or statistics) are well described by the Gaussian orthogonal ens

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Publication Date
Sat Sep 23 2023
Journal Name
Sciences Journal Of Physical Education
Individual analysis of kinetic response variables according to the measurement of the H7 system for the best jumping players in the national basketball team 2021
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The skill scale in most of sport activity monitoring a lot of dynamic behaviours conducted with playing situations that help the excerpt's in sport field to evaluate and put right solutions ,soccer one of games that studies in third stage in college and take skills ,dribbling , passing, shooting these skills helps to execute the plans in game ,the researchers notice that there is no test measure the skills of the game in the beginning of the first semester especially in the method of soccer in physical education college and the problem of the research were by answering the question that is there test connect between one or more that one of skill to measure the ability of students to execute the plans in soccer and the conclusion was the bui

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Materials Today: Proceedings
Energy management and storage systems on electric vehicles: A comprehensive review
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Publication Date
Fri Dec 01 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Comparing the Sequential Nonlinear least squared Method and Sequential robust M method to estimate the parameters of Two Dimensional sinusoidal signal model:
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Estimation of the unknown parameters in 2-D sinusoidal signal model can be considered as important and difficult problem. Due to the difficulty to find estimate of all the parameters of this type of models at the same time, we propose sequential non-liner least squares method and sequential robust  M method after their development through the use of sequential  approach in the estimate suggested by Prasad et al to estimate unknown frequencies and amplitudes for the 2-D sinusoidal compounds but depending on Downhill Simplex Algorithm in solving non-linear equations for the purpose of obtaining non-linear parameters estimation which represents frequencies and then use of least squares formula to estimate

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Publication Date
Fri Feb 01 2019
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
This study sought to determine the impact of spreading the culture of quality in improving the quality of tourism service in some hotels in Erbil governorate
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This study sought to determine the impact of spreading the culture of quality in improving the quality of tourism service in some hotels in Erbil governorate. The theme of excellence in providing service and attention to it has become the concern of most organizations in general and tourism service organizations in particular. Tourists try to establish the mental status of customers about their tourism organizations had to pay attention to the quality of service provided to the customer and work to develop them to the advanced stages of satisfaction and happiness of customers and this will certainly positively affect the improvement of service in the tourism sector, Of the research variables were examined statistically by distrib

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