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Determine the best model to predict the consumption of electric energy in the southern region
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Abstract:          

                Interest in the topic of prediction has increased in recent years and appeared modern methods such as Artificial Neural Networks models, if these methods are able to learn and adapt self with any model, and does not require assumptions on the nature of the time series. On the other hand, the methods currently used to predict the classic method such as Box-Jenkins may be difficult to diagnose chain and modeling because they assume strict conditions.

               So there was a need to compare the traditional methods used to predict the time chained with neural networks method to find the most efficient method to predict, and this is the purpose of this study.

              Contributes to predict future demand for electricity in the electric power sector to solve problems through future planning to meet changes in the demand for electricity increases. Experience has shown there is no way of certain predict appropriate for all cases, but that in each case the way of a private predict is needed to find and use. However, taking more than one way may lead to raising the future accuracy of the estimates.

               The present study aims to shed light on some of the statistical methods used to predict future demand for electricity for the Southern District, as well as a reference to more accurate methods to predict the future of energy. It has been used a number of methods to predict , such as econometric modeling technique, style and Box- Jenkins method of artificial neural network. And service to the goal of the study, which is based upon the premise that search: the neural network models more accurate than traditional models in long-term. As it is the most efficient and more accurate than other conventional models in dealing with non-linear time-series data.

                We have been using the annual electrical energy consumption data for the Southern District to conduct a comparison of the program through the application of SPSS and Minitab for statistical analysis, and Matlab language has been used to build a program in neural networks, and through the practical application it was found that neural networks gives better results and more efficient than the classic way.

 

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Publication Date
Sun Mar 19 2023
Journal Name
Journal Of Educational And Psychological Researches
Evaluating the Science Experts Program at the Specialized Institute for Professional Training for Teachers in the Sultanate of Oman in Light of the Kirkpatrick Model
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Abstract

This study aims to identify the degree to which the first cycle teachers use different feedback patterns in the E-learning system, to identify the differences in the degree of use according to specialization, teaching experience, and in-service training in the field of classroom assessment as well as the interaction between them. The study sample consisted of (350) female teachers of the first cycle in the governmental schools in Muscat Governorate for the academic year 2020/2021. The study used a questionnaire containing four different feedback patterns: reinforcement, informative, corrective, and interpretive feedback. The psychometric properties of the questionnaire were verified in terms of validity

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Publication Date
Wed Apr 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Identifying the Phenomenon of monopoly according to the vision of Accounting
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The research seeks to identify the factors affecting the monopoly and the possibility of measuring the phenomenon of economic ( monopolistic profit) accounted for and that the importance of research topic arising from the transformation of the majority of developing countries to the market economy, which represents the image of the capitalist economy, which is a monopoly, a stages that economy in its various forms, whether Market Worldwide sales monopoly or monopoly, which generates absolute monopolistic profits, which more or less affect on the overall economy of those countries than they should study the phenomenon of monopoly and its impact on the economies of those countries that still love to find her site reinforces its pos

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Integrative analysis of the value & supply chains and its impact in supporting customer value An application study in Southern Cement Company - Kufa Cement Plant
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Abstract\

The value chain analysis is main tools to achieve effective and efficient cost management; it requires a depth and comprehensive understanding for all internal and external activities associated with creating value.  Supply chain as apart of value chain, that means managing it in active and efficient can achieve great results when adopting a comprehensive and integrated performance for these two chains activities. The research aims to identify possible ways to integrate the performance of value and supply chains of the sample" Kufa-cement plant" and determine the effect of this integration in enhancing customer value. The research arrival that logical and integrated analysis of value and supply chains helps

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 30 2020
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Using Project Management Maturity Model to Evaluate Construction Sector -Organizations. Case Study at the Department of buildings - Karkh first
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The education sector suffers from many problems, including the scarcity of schools that can absorb the increasing number of students in light of the increasing population growth rate, as some regions suffer from a lack of opening of new schools or the expansion of existing schools to increase their capacity so that attention is required. The research sought to identify the level of maturity of project management at the research site (Building Department in Al-Karkh I/ Ministry of Education) Being responsible for educational projects and their implementation and to know that, the ten areas of the knowledge guide to project management PMBOK have been adopted according to the PM3 model (one of the models of maturity

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 01 2018
Journal Name
Al–bahith Al–a'alami
The Communicative Integration in New Media: Building a Communicative Model
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The internet, unlike other traditional means of communication, has a flexibility to stimulate the user and allows him to develop it. Perhaps, the reason for the superiority of the internet over other traditional means of communication is the possibility of change and transmission from one stage to another in a short period. This means that the internet is able to move from the use to the development of the use and then the development of means and innovation as the innovation of the internet is a logical product of the interaction of the user with the network. The internet invests all the proposals and ideas and does not ignore any even if it is simple. This is represented in social networking sites which in fact reflects personal emotio

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Publication Date
Wed Jun 01 2016
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Proposed method to estimate missing values in Non - Parametric multiple regression model
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In this paper, we will provide a proposed method to estimate missing values for the Explanatory variables for Non-Parametric Multiple Regression Model and compare it with the Imputation Arithmetic mean Method, The basis of the idea of this method was based on how to employ the causal relationship between the variables in finding an efficient estimate of the missing value, we rely on the use of the Kernel estimate by Nadaraya – Watson Estimator , and on Least Squared Cross Validation (LSCV) to estimate the Bandwidth, and we use the simulation study to compare between the two methods.

 

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2015
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
(Determine the Impact of Public Relations Ethics in Strategic Decisions) Descriptive Analytical Study of a Sample of Administrative Leadership in the Ministry of Higher Education
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Role of public relations (PR) and from one community to another, depending on the different cultures of these societies in General, and different ethical values established by their practitioners in these communities organizations  , public relations in developed societies, and in  some developing countries have taken great strides to contribute to the strategic planning and decision-making, in the framework of their commitment to the values and ethical standards for practitioners, In contrast, we find that applied in Iraq still skips phase coordinate with different communication means with the aim of advertising and publicity for the organization. As a result of the limited recognition of the strategic and vital 

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Publication Date
Fri Mar 01 2024
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Impact of alkaloids extract of Moringa olievera Lam. leaves on the development, fertility and demography of the southern cowpea beetle insect Callosobruchus maculatus (F.) (Coleoptera: Bruchidae)
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The Southern Cowpea Beetle Callosobruchus maculatus (F.) is one of the most widespread insect pests of stored legumes, causing a considerable loss during storage, decreasing the net weight of the crops, and resulting in reduced the quality of the crops. This study has been conducted to determine the lifetime, fertility and life table parameters of C. maculatus by using an alkaloids extract from Moringa oleifera leaves at different concentrations 1000, 2000, and 3000 ppm. The result was shown that the lowest survival rate was 49% at a concentration of 1000, 2000 ppm, as compared with the control which was 77%. The lowest reproductive rate (Ro) was 4.76 female/female/generation at the concentration of 1000 ppm, c

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Publication Date
Mon Mar 14 2016
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Market Research And Consumer Protection
Determine the chemical content of Bay (Laurus nobilis L.) leaves extract and its effectivenss against some bacterial species: Determine the chemical content of Bay (Laurus nobilis L.) leaves extract and its effectivenss against some bacterial species
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This study has been performed to study the inhibitory effects of crude plant extracts of Bay (laurus nobilis) leaves against some bacterial isolates represented by Staphylococcus aureus, Staphylococcus epidermids, Proteus vulgaris, Bacillus subtilis, Escherichia coli, and Pseudomonas aeroginosa in vitro. The results showed that percentages of essential chemical of laurus nobilis leaves which represented by moisture, total oil, total ash, crude protein, crude fibers, carbohydrites and caloric values in dry weight are 5.96, 4.28, 14.2, 8.75, 24.8, 76.99%, and 284.92 kcal/100g respectively, the percentages of some major and minor mineral elements of laurus nobilis leaves powder which represented by Mg, Fe, Cu, Pb, Cd and As, are: 0.211, 0.1

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Publication Date
Mon Sep 16 2019
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Approximate Solutions for Alcohol Consumption Model in Spain
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     In this paper, our aim is to solve analytically a nonlinear social epidemic model as an initial value problem (IVP) of ordinary differential equations. The mathematical social epidemic model under study is applied to alcohol consumption model in Spain. The economic cost of alcohol consumption in Spain is affected by the amount of alcohol consumed. This paper refers to the study of alcohol consumption using some analytical methods. Adomian decomposition and variation iteration methods for solving alcohol consumption model have used. Finally, a compression between the analytic solutions of the two used methods and the previous actual values from 1997 to 2007 years is obtained using the absolute and

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