Nonlinear time series analysis is one of the most complex problems ; especially the nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous variable (NARX) .Then ; the problem of model identification and the correct orders determination considered the most important problem in the analysis of time series . In this paper , we proposed splines estimation method for model identification , then we used three criterions for the correct orders determination. Where ; proposed method used to estimate the additive splines for model identification , And the rank determination depends on the additive property to avoid the problem of curse dimensionally . The proposed method is one of the nonparametric methods , and the simulation results give a good identification of the NARX models and the BIC criteria is the best criterion used to determine the correct orders of the selected models.
The present research deals with the spatial variance analysis in Jwartadistrict and conducting a comparison on the spatial and seasonal changes of the vegetation cover between (2007-2013) in order to deduce the relationship between the vegetation density and the areas which are exposed to the risk of water erosion by using Plant Variation Index NDVI) C (coefficient and by using Satellite images of Landsat satellite which are taken in 2/7/2007 and Satellite images of Landsat satellite taken in 11/1/ 2013, the programs of remote sensitivity and the Geographic Information Systems.
The study reveals that there is a variance in the density of vegetation cover of the area under study betwee 2007 and 2013. Howev
... Show MoreIn this paper, the researcher suggested using the Genetic algorithm method to estimate the parameters of the Wiener degradation process, where it is based on the Wiener process in order to estimate the reliability of high-efficiency products, due to the difficulty of estimating the reliability of them using traditional techniques that depend only on the failure times of products. Monte Carlo simulation has been applied for the purpose of proving the efficiency of the proposed method in estimating parameters; it was compared with the method of the maximum likelihood estimation. The results were that the Genetic algorithm method is the best based on the AMSE comparison criterion, then the reliab
... Show MoreThe monetary policy is a vital method used in implementing monetary stability through: the management of income and adjustment of the price (monetary targets) in order to promote stability and growth of real output (non-cash goals); the tool of interest rate and direct investment guides or movement towards the desired destination; and supervisory instruments of monetary policy in both quantitative and qualitative. The latter is very important as a standard compass to investigate the purposes of the movement monetary policy in the economy. The public and businesses were given monetary policy signals by those tools. In fiscal policy, there are specific techniques to follow to do the spending and collection of revenue. This is done in order to
... Show MoreThe use analysis value chain such information in the provision as financial so information quality meet and satisfy the needs of users such information , particularly investors and lenders as the identification needs financial information and the knowledge as their behavior influenced by that information can be based on the accounting profession to focus on improving their function in order to achieve its goal that satisfying their needs and rationalize their decisions . In accounting thought discovered fertile ground for users preferences as one of the entrances theorising positive which is based on the need to include knowledge on accounting hypothesis that explain the
... Show Moreيعد أنموذج الانحدار اللوجستي من نماذج الانحدار المهمة، حيث يلقى اهتماماً واضحاً في معظم الدراسات التي تأخذ طابعاً اكثر تقدماً في عملية التحليل الاحصائي. أن طرائق التقدير الاعتيادية تفشل في التعامل مع البيانات التي تتضمن وجود القيم الشاذة حيث أن لها تأثير غير مرغوب على النتائج. سنستعرض في هذا البحث طرائق لتقدير معلمات انموذج الانحدار اللوجستي وهذه الطرائق هي: طريقة مقدر لابلاس (Laplace estimator) (LP-) وطريقة مقدر هوب
... Show MoreThe study included examination of three types of different origin and orange juice at the rate of recurring per sample, the results showed that the highest rates of acid (pH) in the A and juice were (4). And salts of calcium is 120 ppm in juice C and 86 ppm of magnesium in the juice B, for heavy metals the highest rate of lead .18 recorded ppm in juice B, 1.32 ppm of copper in juice A, 5 ppm of iron in the juice B, 1.3 ppm of zinc in the juice B, 0.05 ppm of aluminum in each of the sappy B and A, 0.02 ppm of cobalt in the juice B, 0.3 ppm of nickel in the juice B, 170.6 ppm sodium in C juice, but for the acids, organic that the highest rates were 3.2 part Millions of acid in the juice owner a, 260 ppm of the acid in the juice the ascorbi
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This paper deals with a method called Statistical Energy Analysis that can be applied to the mechanical and acoustical systems like buildings, bridges and aircrafts …etc. S.E.A as a tool can be applied to the resonant systems in the circumstances of high frequency or/and complex structure». The parameters of S.E.A such as coupling loss factor, internal loss factor, modal density and input power are clarified in this work ; coupled plate sub-systems and explanations are presented for these parameters. The developed system is assumed to be resonant, conservative, linear and there is an equipartition of energy between all the resonant modes within a given frequency band in a given sub-system. The aim of th
... Show MoreIn this paper, the deterministic and the stochastic models are proposed to study the interaction of the Coronavirus (COVID-19) with host cells inside the human body. In the deterministic model, the value of the basic reproduction number determines the persistence or extinction of the COVID-19. If , one infected cell will transmit the virus to less than one cell, as a result, the person carrying the Coronavirus will get rid of the disease .If the infected cell will be able to infect all cells that contain ACE receptors. The stochastic model proves that if are sufficiently large then maybe give us ultimate disease extinction although , and this facts also proved by computer simulation.