Nonlinear time series analysis is one of the most complex problems ; especially the nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous variable (NARX) .Then ; the problem of model identification and the correct orders determination considered the most important problem in the analysis of time series . In this paper , we proposed splines estimation method for model identification , then we used three criterions for the correct orders determination. Where ; proposed method used to estimate the additive splines for model identification , And the rank determination depends on the additive property to avoid the problem of curse dimensionally . The proposed method is one of the nonparametric methods , and the simulation results give a good identification of the NARX models and the BIC criteria is the best criterion used to determine the correct orders of the selected models.
In many scientific fields, Bayesian models are commonly used in recent research. This research presents a new Bayesian model for estimating parameters and forecasting using the Gibbs sampler algorithm. Posterior distributions are generated using the inverse gamma distribution and the multivariate normal distribution as prior distributions. The new method was used to investigate and summaries Bayesian statistics' posterior distribution. The theory and derivation of the posterior distribution are explained in detail in this paper. The proposed approach is applied to three simulation datasets of 100, 300, and 500 sample sizes. Also, the procedure was extended to the real dataset called the rock intensity dataset. The actual dataset is collecte
... Show MoreEstimation stage is one of most important in process of selecting and identification for fit model, this model gives a best results if the good methods of estimation are depended on, one of those methods is Bayes method for estimation the parameters, it puts an assumption that parameter have a distribution.
This paper studies the robustness of estimators of empirical Bayes to know the properties of those estimators.
The main purpose of the research is to diagnose the importance of the role that strategic memory plays with its three variables (content, structure, and processes) in helping the human resource department to use the COSO model with its five components (culture and governance, strategy and objectives, performance, communications and information, and feedback) in auditing activities and tasks Her own. As the research problem emphasized the existence of a lack of cognitive perception, of the importance of strategic memory, and the investment of its components in the rationalization of the application of the COSO model. and therefore it can be emphasized that the importance of the research is to provide treatments for problems relate
... Show More In this paper the research represents an attempt of expansion in using the parametric and non-parametric estimators to estimate the median effective dose ( ED50 ) in the quintal bioassay and comparing between these methods . We have Chosen three estimators for Comparison. The first estimator is
( Spearman-Karber ) and the second estimator is ( Moving Average ) and The Third estimator is ( Extreme Effective Dose ) . We used a minimize Chi-square as a parametric method. We made a Comparison for these estimators by calculating the mean square error of (ED50) for each one of them and comparing it with the optimal the mean square
Improved oral bioavailability of lipophilic substances can be achieved using self-emulsifying drug delivery systems. However, because the properties of self-emulsifying are greatly influenced by surfactant amount and type, type of oil used, droplet size, charge, cosolvents, and physiological variables, the synthesis of self-emulsifying is highly complex; consequently, only a small number of excipient self-emulsifying formulations has been developed so far for clinical use. This study reports a highly effective procedure for developing self-emulsifying formulations using a novel approach based on the hydrophilic-lipophilic difference theory. Microemulsion characteristics, such as the constituents and amounts of oil and surfactant electrolyte
... Show MoreThis article introduces the concept of finitely null-additive set function relative to the σ– ring and many properties of this concept have been discussed. Furthermore, to introduce and study the notion of finitely weakly null-additive set function relative to the σ– ring as a generalization of some concepts such as measure, countably additive, finitely additive, countably null-additive, countably weakly null-additive and finitely null-additive. As the first result, it has been proved that every finitely null-additive is a finitely weakly null-additive. Finally, the paper introduces a study of the concept of outer measure as a stronger form of finitely weakly null-additive.
The aerodynamic characteristics of general three-dimensional rectangular wings are considered using non-linear interaction between two-dimensional viscous-inviscid panel method and vortex ring method. The potential flow of a two-dimensional airfoil by the pioneering Hess & Smith method was used with viscous laminar, transition and turbulent boundary layer to solve flow about complex configuration of airfoils including stalling effect. Viterna method was used to extend the aerodynamic characteristics of the specified airfoil to high angles of attacks. A modified vortex ring method was used to find the circulation values along span wise direction of the wing and then interacted with sectional circulation obtained by Kutta-Joukowsky theorem of
... Show MoreThe term “non-violence” is a means of political, social, and advocacy that excludes force in reaching its objectives, and lacks infringement of the rights of non-violence. The policy of non-violence is a beautiful logic of the whole of Islamic creation, in that it is an integral part of the whole structure of Islam and it is a policy of brilliant and brilliant saying in the Almighty: `` Neither level nor good or bad, pay what is better, If that between you and him enmity as if he were intimate guardian (Suratvsalat, verse: 34. Has According to the prophet of Islam, it means that God gives to kindness (kindness) what does not give to violence (Sunan Abu Dawood, 4/255). These terms accurately communicate what is meant by violence and n
... Show MoreCoronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models
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