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jeasiq-2276
Using a hybrid SARIMA-NARNN Model to Forecast the Numbers of Infected with (COVID-19) in Iraq
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Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.

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Publication Date
Tue Sep 18 2018
Journal Name
Water
A Systematic Operation Program of a Hydropower Plant Based on Minimizing the Principal Stress: Haditha Dam Case Study
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Dam operation and management have become more complex recently because of the need for considering hydraulic structure sustainability and environmental protect on. An Earthfill dam that includes a powerhouse system is considered as a significant multipurpose hydraulic structure. Understanding the effects of running hydropower plant turbines on the dam body is one of the major safety concerns for earthfill dams. In this research, dynamic analysis of earthfill dam, integrated with a hydropower plant system containing six vertical Kaplan turbines (i.e., Haditha dam), is investigated. In the first stage of the study, ANSYS-CFX was used to represent one vertical Kaplan turbine unit by designing a three-dimensional (3-D) finite element (F

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Pharmaceutical Negative Results
The Effect of Ferric Citrate in Controlling Iron Deficiency Anemia and its Tolerability in a Sample of Iraqi Hemodialysis Patients: Randomized Controlled Clinical Trial
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Background: The iron deficiency anemia along with hyperphosphatemia are the main complications of dialysis patients. Traditional iron supplement has been failed to correct iron deficiency anemia, therefore, the current study aimed to investigate the efficacy and tolerability of new phosphate binder, ferric citrate, in a sample of Iraqi patients with end stage renal disease on maintenance hemodialysis. Method: Prospective, randomized, open label, active controlled trial was conducted in one center for dialysis in Babylon governance. Patients were randomized to receive ferric citrate with dose of 6 g/d and calcium carbonate with dose of 3 g/d for eight weeks. Hemoglobin concentration, mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration and count o

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Publication Date
Tue Feb 01 2022
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Numerical analysis of a concrete foundation under a combination of a dynamic and a seismic load
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Improving in assembling technology has provided machines of higher evaluation with better resistances and managed behavior. This machinery led to remarkably higher dynamic forces and therefore higher stresses. In this paper, a dynamic investigation of rectangular machine diesel and gas engines foundation at the top surface of one-layer dry sand with various states (i.e., loose, medium and dense) was carried out. The dynamic investigation is performed numerically by utilizing limited component programming, PLAXIS 3D. The soil is accepted as flexible totally plastic material submits to Mohr-Coulomb yield basis. A harmonic load is applied at the foundation with amplitude of 10 kPa at a frequency of (10, 15 and 20) HZ and se

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Publication Date
Mon Jul 01 2019
Journal Name
Plant Archives
Effect of melatonin administration with different light colors on the production of local chickens
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This study aims to observe the effect of melatonin implantation and exposure to different light colors and their interaction on productive in local Iraqi chicken. This study was conducted at the poultry farm of the Department of Animal Production/College of Agriculture/University of Baghdad/Abu Ghraib, on 252 birds (180 females and 72 males). The birds were divided into three sections (white, red and green) each section contains two lines, one of which has been planted melatonin under the skin of the neck of birds and the other has not been planted hormone. The results of the study showed significant improvement in productive traits such as egg proportion rate, egg weight, cumulative eggs number, egg mass and feed conversion rate. That the

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Publication Date
Wed Dec 01 2010
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Physics
The Electro-Excitation Form Factors of 7Li Nucleus with Exact Center of Mass Correction
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The inelastic longitudinal electron scattering form factors are calculated for the low-lying excited states of 7Li {the first excited state 2121TJ (0.478 MeV) and the second excited state 2127TJ (4.63 MeV)}. The exact value of the center of mass correction in the translation invariant shell model (TISM) has been included and gives good results. A higher 2p-shell configuration enhances the form factors for high q-values and resolves many discrepancies with the experiments. The data are well described when the core polarization (CP) effects are included through effective nucleon charge. The results are compared with other theoretical models.
Keyword: 7Li inelastic electron scattering form factors calculated with exact

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Publication Date
Sun Sep 06 2009
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Extension of the Chebyshev Method of Quassi-Linear Parabolic P.D.E.S With Mixed Boundary Conditions
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The researcher [1-10] proposed a method for computing the numerical solution to quasi-linear parabolic p.d.e.s using a Chebyshev method. The purpose of this paper is to extend the method to problems with mixed boundary conditions. An error analysis for the linear problem is given and a global element Chebyshev method is described. A comparison of various chebyshev methods is made by applying them to two-point eigenproblems. It is shown by analysis and numerical examples that the approach used to derive the generalized Chebyshev method is comparable, in terms of the accuracy obtained, with existing Chebyshev methods.

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Publication Date
Sun Jun 05 2011
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Effect of Milk Substitution with liquid whey on the quality properties of fatty cake
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This study exposed to use the liquid whey (which was produced from of soft cheese processed) partially or completely instead of milk in fatty cake, this whey residue is still not used, instead it is thrown in rivers which effect different environment and economic problems. Different concentrations was used (25% , 50% , 75% , and 100%) of whey in baked cake , Volume , height and other different properties ( panel taste ) was studied too . Sensory evaluation results showed that an improved in all the character of the baked cake was happen by the used of 25% and 50% of the whey in comparison with the control treatment, the 75% replacement showed a decrease in appearance , texture and tenderness , while the degrees of color and fla

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Publication Date
Sat Oct 01 2022
Journal Name
The Egyptian Journal Of Hospital Medicine
The Effects of Soft Laser on Some Blood Parameters of Patients with Breast Cancer
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Background: Soft Laser has been advantageous in medical applications and is widely used in clinical practice. It is applied because it doesn’t cause the significant thermal effects or tissue hurt when irradiated. The blood response to low power laser radiation provides information about processes of laser radiation interaction with live creatures. Objective: The aim of the current work was to evaluate the laser-induced changes of in vitro erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), mean corpuscular volume (MCV), and mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration (MCHC) in patients with breast cancer by irradiating a human blood sample using a green laser and comparing its effects before and after irradiation with the same power density (100mW/c

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Thermal Science
Experimental investigation of the thermal performance of wet cooling tower with splash fills packing
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With the increasing intensity of the ecological and environmental problems and the scarcity of fresh water, this paper was introduced to investigate the ability to use treated wastewater as a cooling media via studying its behavior throughout a cooling tower. The simultaneous transfer of heat and mass from the treated wastewater to air over splash-fill packing arranged in a zigzag manner was studied. The characteristic of the cooling tower, the outlet water temperature, and the rejected heat were investigated as the water-to-air ratio and inlet water temperature were varied. The core results show that the cooling tower of the tower decreases with increasing water-to-air ratio, and increases with the raise of inlet water temperature.

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Publication Date
Sat Jan 01 2022
Journal Name
Proceedings Of 2nd International Multi-disciplinary Conference Theme: Integrated Sciences And Technologies, Imdc-ist 2021, 7-9 September 2021, Sakarya, Turkey
Investigation of the Effect of Diabetes on Lower Limb Muscles with Surface Electromyography (EMG)
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