Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.
This research aims to numerically solve a nonlinear initial value problem presented as a system of ordinary differential equations. Our focus is on epidemiological systems in particular. The accurate numerical method that is the Runge-Kutta method of order four has been used to solve this problem that is represented in the epidemic model. The COVID-19 mathematical epidemic model in Iraq from 2020 to the next years is the application under study. Finally, the results obtained for the COVID-19 model have been discussed tabular and graphically. The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic can be observed via the behavior of the different stages of the model that approximates the behavior of actual the COVID-19 epidemic in Iraq. In our study, the COV
... Show MoreThe outbreak of a current public health coronavirus 2019 disease is a causative agent of a serious acute respiratory syndrome and even death. COVID-19 has exposed to multi-suggested pharmaceutical agents to control this global disease. Baricitinib, a well-known antirheumatic agent, was one of them. This article reviews the likely pros and cons of baricitinib in attenuation of COVID-19 based on the mechanism of drug action as well as its pharmacokinetics. The inhibitory effect of baricitinib on receptor mediated endocytosis promoter, AKK1, and on JAK-STAT signaling pathway is benefacial in inhibition of both viral assembling and inflammation. Also, its pharmacokinetic has encouraged the physicians toward the drug
... Show MoreThis study attempts to address the importance of communicative digitization in the field of various arts for the sake of continuity of shopping and aesthetic, artistic and intellectual appreciation of artistic achievements by the recipient on various places of their residence in light of the COVID 19 crisis, and to highlight the importance of the plastic arts of the Iraqi painter exclusively and how it expresses in a contemporary way the environment or life reality in Iraq in light of this crisis. With all its implications affecting the life reality from various aspects and methods of its negative and positive employment. As for the research procedures, the researcher reviewed the research methodology represented by the descriptive ana
... Show MoreEnhancement of the performance for hybrid solar air conditioning system was presented in this paper. The refrigerant temperature leaving the condenser was controlled using three-way valve, this valve was installed after the compressor to regulate refrigerant flow rate towards the solar system. A control system using data logger, sensors and computer was proposed to set the opening valve ratio. The function of control program using LabVIEW software is to obtain a minimum refrigerant temperature from the condenser outlet to enhance the overall COP of the unit by increasing the degree of subcooled refrigerant. A variable load electrical heater with coiled pipe was used instead of the solar collector and the storage tank to simulate the sola
... Show MoreThe need to create the optimal water quality management process has motivated researchers to pursue prediction modeling development. One of the widely important forecasting models is the sessional autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. In the present study, a SARIMA model was developed in R software to fit a time series data of monthly fluoride content collected from six stations on Tigris River for the period from 2004 to 2014. The adequate SARIMA model that has the least Akaike's information criterion (AIC) and mean squared error (MSE) was found to be SARIMA (2,0,0) (0,1,1). The model parameters were identified and diagnosed to derive the forecasting equations at each selected location. The correlation coefficien
... Show MoreThe need to create the optimal water quality management process has motivated researchers to pursue prediction modeling development. One of the widely important forecasting models is the sessional autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model. In the present study, a SARIMA model was developed in R software to fit a time series data of monthly fluoride content collected from six stations on Tigris River for the period from 2004 to 2014. The adequate SARIMA model that has the least Akaike's information criterion (AIC) and mean squared error (MSE) was found to be SARIMA (2, 0, 0) (0,1,1). The model parameters were identified and diagnosed to derive the forecasting equations at each selected location. The correlat
... Show MoreInfertility is one of the types of diseases that occur in the reproductive system. Obesity is a state that can be occurred due to excessive fats, the progression in obesity stage results in a change in adipose tissue and the development of chronic inflammation, endocrine glands disorders and women’s reproductive system, and also increase the infection with covid-19. The study aimed to investigate the effect of the obesity, lipid-profile, and IL-6 on hormones-dysregulation in infertile-women with COVID-19 complications. The current study included 70 samples: 50 infertility-women-with-covid-19-infected, 20 healthy-women/control, the ages of both patients and healthy subjects were selected within the range 18-34 years. Levels of FBS, LH,
... Show MoreThe study aims to measure the level of academic stress in the e-learning environment in three areas, students and their dealing with classmates, dealing with the professor and technical skills, and the nature and content of the curriculum among graduate students in the College of Education at King Khalid University during COVID-19 pandemic. This study was descriptive in nature (survey, comparative). The sample consisted of (512) male and female graduate students in the master's and doctoral programs. The Academic Stress Scale in the E-learning Environment designed by Amer (2021) was used. The results indicated a high level of academic stress among graduate students in the e-learning environment. The study also found that there were stati
... Show MoreIn this paper, we model the spread of coronavirus (COVID -19) by introducing stochasticity into the deterministic differential equation susceptible -infected-recovered (SIR model). The stochastic SIR dynamics are expressed using Itô's formula. We then prove that this stochastic SIR has a unique global positive solution I(t).The main aim of this article is to study the spread of coronavirus COVID-19 in Iraq from 13/8/2020 to 13/9/2020. Our results provide a new insight into this issue, showing that the introduction of stochastic noise into the deterministic model for the spread of COVID-19 can cause the disease to die out, in scenarios where deterministic models predict disease persistence. These results were also clearly ill
... Show More<p>Combating the COVID-19 epidemic has emerged as one of the most promising healthcare the world's challenges have ever seen. COVID-19 cases must be accurately and quickly diagnosed to receive proper medical treatment and limit the pandemic. Imaging approaches for chest radiography have been proven in order to be more successful in detecting coronavirus than the (RT-PCR) approach. Transfer knowledge is more suited to categorize patterns in medical pictures since the number of available medical images is limited. This paper illustrates a convolutional neural network (CNN) and recurrent neural network (RNN) hybrid architecture for the diagnosis of COVID-19 from chest X-rays. The deep transfer methods used were VGG19, DenseNet121
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