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jeasiq-2276
Using a hybrid SARIMA-NARNN Model to Forecast the Numbers of Infected with (COVID-19) in Iraq
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Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.

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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
International Journal Of Agricultural And Statistical Sciences
MODELING DEATH RATE OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC IN IRAQ
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Publication Date
Sun Nov 01 2020
Journal Name
Travel Medicine And Infectious Disease
Incidence of the COVID-19 in Iraq – Implications for travellers
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Publication Date
Wed Aug 30 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Studying the Effect of COVID-19 on Liver Enzymes and Lipid Profile in Iraqi Recovering Patients
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  The Covid-19 virus disease has been shown to affect numerous organs and systems including the liver. The study aimed to compare lipid profiles and liver enzyme levels in individuals who had recovered from Covid-19 infection. To achieve the study objectives, liver Aspartate Aminotransferase (AST), Alanine Aminotransferase (ALT), Alkaline phosphatase (ALP),  Random Blood Sugar (RBS) and Lipid profile which include cholesterol, High-Density Lipoprotein (HDL), Triglycerides (T.G), Low-Density Lipoprotein (LDL), and Very low-density Lipoprotein (VLDL) were determined.

One hundred twenty serum samples were obtained, of which fifty samples were utilized as the control healthy persons (not affected by COVID) and seventy samples came f

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Publication Date
Thu Nov 01 2018
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Use A State Space Model and Forecast House Prices in Baghdad.
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The purchase of a home and access to housing is one of the most important requirements for the life of the individual and the stability of living and the development of the prices of houses in general and in Baghdad in particular affected by several factors, including the basic area of the house, the age of the house, the neighborhood in which the housing is available and the basic services, Where the statistical model SSM model was used to model house prices over a period of time from 2000 to 2018 and forecast until 2025 The research is concerned with enhancing the importance of this model and describing it as a standard and important compared to the models used in the analysis of time series after obtaining the

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Publication Date
Wed Aug 30 2023
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Impact of COVID-19 Vaccine on Hearing Status of Young Ages (Medical College Students as a Sample)
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Many studies dealt with the consequences of  SARS CoV-2  (which cause COVID-19 infection) on the nervous system especially sensory nerves where the virus causes loss of taste and smell as it’s known, and may affect auditory nerves and be the expected cause of some hearing problems. A case-control analytic study was performed on a connivance sample of society of university students from a medical faculty. Each participant filled out a questionnaire contains demographic data and general, auditory and respiratory health condition, in addition to vaccination status. In the other side, the audio- examinations were performed on the study sample including Pure Tone Audiometry (PTA) and tympanometry. Two statistical methods; chi-square and t

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Publication Date
Fri Apr 23 2021
Journal Name
Al-nahrain Journal Of Science
A Clinical-Statistical Study on COVID-19 Cases in Iraq: A Case Study
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Background: COVID-19 is a disease that started in Wuhan/China in late 2019 and continued through 2020 worldwide. Scientists worldwide continue to research to find vaccines, treatments, and medication for this disease. Studies also conenue to find the pathogenicity and epidemiology mechanisms. Materials and Methods: In this work, we analyzed cases obtained from Alshifaa center in Baghdad/Iraq for 23/2/2020-31/5/2020 with total instances of 797, positive cases of 393, and death cases of 30. Results: Results showed that the highest infection cases were among people aged between 41-45. Also, it was found that males' number of cases was more than females. In contrast, death cases were significantly higher in males than females. It was not

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Publication Date
Thu Apr 14 2022
Journal Name
Plos One
The passage of time in Iraq during the covid-19 pandemic
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The covid-19 global pandemic has influenced the day-to-day lives of people across the world. One consequence of this has been significant distortion to the subjective speed at which people feel like time is passing. To date, temporal distortions during covid-19 have mainly been studied in Europe. The current study therefore sought to explore experiences of the passage of time in Iraq. An online questionnaire was used to explore the passage of time during the day, week and the 11 months since the first period of covid-19 restrictions were imposed in Iraq. The questionnaire also measured affective and demographic factors, and task-load. The results showed that distortions to the passage of time were widespread in Iraq. Participants co

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Publication Date
Sun Apr 03 2022
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Laser
On the use of Aluminium as a plasmonic material in polarization rotators based on a hybrid plasmonic waveguide
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: The Aluminium (Al) material emerged as a plasmonic material in the wavelength ranges from the ultraviolet to the visible bands in different on-chip plasmonic applications. In this paper, we demonstrate the effect of using Al on the electromagnetic (EM) field distribution of a compact hybrid plasmonic waveguide (HPW) acting as a polarization rotator. We compare the performance of Al with other familiar metals that are widely used as plasmonic materials, which are Silver (Ag) and Gold (Au). Furthermore, we study the effect of reducing the geometrical dimensions of the used materials on the EM field distributions inside the HPW and, consequently, on the efficiency of the polarization rotation. We perform the study based o

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Publication Date
Tue Apr 13 2021
Journal Name
Latin American Journal Of Pharmacy
The Experience with Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients in Al-Basra, Iraq: Predictors of the disease severity
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SUMMARY. The objectives of the present study were to assess the possible predictors of COVID-19 severity and duration of hospitalization and to identify the possible correlation between patient parameters, disease severity and duration of hospitalization. The study included retrospective medical record extraction of previous coron avirus COVID-19 patients in Basra hospitals, Iraq from March 1st and May 31st, 2020. The information of the participants was investigated anonymously. All the patients’ characteristics, treatments, vital signs and laboratory tests (hematological, renal and liver function tests) were collected. The analysis was conducted using the SPSS (version 22, USA). Spearman correlation was used to measure the relations

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Scopus
Publication Date
Mon Dec 12 2022
Journal Name
Geodesy And Cartography
SPATIOTEMPORAL ANALYSIS FOR FIGHTING COVID-19 IN IRAQ
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At the end of 2019, a new form of Coronavirus (later dubbed COVID-19) emerged in China and quickly spread to other regions of the globe. Despite the virus’s unique and unknown characteristics, it is a widely distributed infectious illness. Finding the geographical distribution of the virus transmission is therefore critical for epidemiologists and governments in order to respond to the illness epidemic rapidly and effectively. Understanding the dynamics of COVID-19’s spatial distribution can help to understand the pandemic’s scope and effects, as well as decision-making, planning, and community action aimed at preventing transmission. The main focus of this study is to investigate the geographic patterns of COVID-19 disseminat

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