Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.
Abstract
This research attempt to explain the essential aspects of one important model in management of Bank risks , that is (stress testing) , which increase the concentrate on it resulting the negative affects of Global financial crisis that it accuar in 2008 to study the application possibilities in iraqian banks to enhancing the safety and financial soundness Becuase the classical tools in Risk management don’t give clear image on Banks ability in facing risks, hence the Basel committee on Banking supervision focusing in agreement of Basel 2,3 on stress testing when it doing the internal capital adequacy assessment process (ICAAP) .
To achieving the reseach obje
... Show MoreThe purpose of this paper to discriminate between the poetic poems of each poet depending on the characteristics and attribute of the Arabic letters. Four categories used for the Arabic letters, letters frequency have been included in a multidimensional contingency table and each dimension has two or more levels, then contingency coefficient calculated.
The paper sample consists of six poets from different historical ages, and each poet has five poems. The method was programmed using the MATLAB program, the efficiency of the proposed method is 53% for the whole sample, and between 90% and 95% for each poet's poems.
In this paper, a new hybrid algorithm for linear programming model based on Aggregate production planning problems is proposed. The new hybrid algorithm of a simulated annealing (SA) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithms. PSO algorithm employed for a good balance between exploration and exploitation in SA in order to be effective and efficient (speed and quality) for solving linear programming model. Finding results show that the proposed approach is achieving within a reasonable computational time comparing with PSO and SA algorithms.
Founding a System to secure deposits and protecting the depositors is considered one of the important and exchanged subjects out there in the banking system/field in Iraq at the current time, and the reason behind the exchange and spread of this subject is due to the financial crisis of which the banking sector is suffering from and the stumbling of many banks, those factors have had led to the insecurity of the depositors and their mistrust towards banks, thus, it is necessary to create a system to secure deposits in which depositors would be compensated for the losses caused by the banks' failures. in addition, it could be a countermeasure system which maintains the banking stability, protects the rights of depositors and gains
... Show MoreThe Artificial Neural Network methodology is a very important & new subjects that build's the models for Analyzing, Data Evaluation, Forecasting & Controlling without depending on an old model or classic statistic method that describe the behavior of statistic phenomenon, the methodology works by simulating the data to reach a robust optimum model that represent the statistic phenomenon & we can use the model in any time & states, we used the Box-Jenkins (ARMAX) approach for comparing, in this paper depends on the received power to build a robust model for forecasting, analyzing & controlling in the sod power, the received power come from
... Show MoreThe aim of this research is to construct a three-dimensional maritime transport model to transport nonhomogeneous goods (k) and different transport modes (v) from their sources (i) to their destinations (j), while limiting the optimum quantities v ijk x to be transported at the lowest possible cost v ijk c and time v ijk t using the heuristic algorithm, Transport problems have been widely studied in computer science and process research and are one of the main problems of transport problems that are usually used to reduce the cost or times of transport of goods with a number of sources and a number of destinations and by means of transport to meet the conditions of supply and demand. Transport models are a key tool in logistics an
... Show MoreThe study aimed to investigate the relationship between empowerment strategies and their impact on the success of enrichment work, it included the dimensions of empowerment strategies (power, knowledge, information, rewards), The dimensions of Job enrichment are (Skill variety, Task identity, Task significance, Autonomy, Feedback). The study was conducted at the headquarters of the Iraqi Oil Ministry in Baghdad and was based on a sample of the leadership of the ministry of managers consisting of 215 people. The data were collected using the questionnaire method based on scientific standards adopted in previous st
... Show MoreThe public budget is regarded a main tool for economic and social development. The preparation of the public budget constitute an important stream which enriches the developmental efforts and the definition of its priorities, therefore it is the focus point of many specializations. The public budget has numerous functions. It is a means to precise and to execute the political and economic goals of the executive authority, a mirror of the economic structure which reflects its strength and weakness points, specifies its revenues and others. Since the parliament is the voice of the society which expresses its interests, then, it must monitor the performance of the government so that the participation of the legislative authority in
... Show MoreAbstract Objective: To identify correlation of elevated LDH & CRP levels with the outcomes of COVID-19. Methodology: The cross-sectional retrospective study consisted of 200 COVID-19 patients who presented at a private clinical in Baghdad, Iraq. It was carried out from February 2021 to February 2022. Data included age, gender and clinical presentation. Blood samples were taken for high sensitivity CRP and LDH in the serum. Results: Out of 200 patients, 50 were critical and 150 severe according to clinical features. LDH and CRP showed a significant increase (p=0.000) in critical patients. This group involved admission to the respiratory intensive care unit requiring mechanical ventilation than in patients with severe COVID-19 (760.5±6.3 vs.
... Show MoreIn this paper, a procedure to establish the different performance measures in terms of crisp value is proposed for two classes of arrivals and multiple channel queueing models, where both arrival and service rate are fuzzy numbers. The main idea is to convert the arrival rates and service rates under fuzzy queues into crisp queues by using graded mean integration approach, which can be represented as median rule number. Hence, we apply the crisp values obtained to establish the performance measure of conventional multiple queueing models. This procedure has shown its effectiveness when incorporated with many types of membership functions in solving queuing problems. Two numerical illustrations are presented to determine the validity of the
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