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jeasiq-2276
Using a hybrid SARIMA-NARNN Model to Forecast the Numbers of Infected with (COVID-19) in Iraq
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Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an acute disease that affects the respiratory system which initially appeared in Wuhan, China. In Feb 2019 the sickness began to spread swiftly throughout the entire planet, causing significant health, social, and economic problems. Time series is an important statistical method used to study and analyze a particular phenomenon, identify its pattern and factors, and use it to predict future values. The main focus of the research is to shed light on the study of SARIMA, NARNN, and hybrid models, expecting that the series comprises both linear and non-linear compounds, and that the ARIMA model can deal with the linear component and the NARNN model can deal with the non-linear component. The models were applied in the health sector to predict the numbers of people infected with the Covid-19 virus in Iraq where the data were collected via the website of the Iraqi Ministry of Health through the daily epidemiological situation of all Iraqi provinces for the period (2021\3\28 to 2021\8\15). When analyzing, studying, and comparing these models, the researcher noted that the hybrid model outperformed other models because it had the lowest value for the MSE, RMSE, MAE, and MAPE so it was used to predict future values.

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Publication Date
Thu Dec 01 2011
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
An Experimental Investigation on Fatigue Properties of AA3003-H14 Aluminum alloy Friction Stir Welds
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AA3003-H14 aluminum alloy plates were welded by friction stir welding and TIG welding.
Fatigue properties of the welded joints were evaluated based on the superior tensile properties for
FSW at 1500 rpm rotational speed and 80 mm/min welding speed. However, there is not much
information available on effect of welding parameters with evolution of fatigue life of friction stir
welds. The present study experimentally analyzed fatigue properties for base, FSW, and TIG welds
of AA 3003-H14 aluminum alloy. Fatigue properties of FSW joints were slightly lower than the
base metal and higher than TIG welding.

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Publication Date
Tue Dec 01 2009
Journal Name
Journal Of Economics And Administrative Sciences
Financial Crisis: Forms- Indicators- Models- and Financial Contagion Theoretical - Analytical Study of Asian Crisis
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اسهم تطور ادوات الاسواق المالية والتغيرات العالمية كالعولمة المالية وتحرير الاسواق المالية العالمية في احداث العديد من الازمات ومنها الازمة المالية الدولية التي تعد من اكثر الظواهر ملازمة للاسواق المالية على الرغم من التطورات التي تشهدها تلك الاسواق نتيجة تطور ادواتها المالية وانفتاحها على بعضها البعض. وتتعرض الاسواق المالية الدولية والناشئة  (Emerging Market) منها بشكل خاص ا

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Publication Date
Sun Jan 01 2023
Journal Name
8th Engineering And 2nd International Conference For College Of Engineering – University Of Baghdad: Coec8-2021 Proceedings
Preliminary quality assurance of printgrammetry technique-3D modeling from Google Earth 3D imagery data
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Publication Date
Sun Sep 01 2013
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Comparison study of Interleukin-1 alpha between Unstable Angina and Acute Myocardial Infarction patients
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Multiple studies support a role for inflammation in the pathogenesis of coronary atherosclerosis and unstable cardiac syndromes. However, of the known pro-inflammatory cytokines, only elevated plasma levels of interleukin-6(IL-6) have been linked to Unstable Angina. We sought to examine the plasma levels of other major proinflammatory cytokines in similar clinical settings patients with unstable angina and acute myocardial infarction and the relationship extent between them. This study aimed to investigate and compare the level of IL-1 in Unstable Angina and Acute Myocardial Infarction patients. Thirty patients with unstable angina and thirty patients with Acute Myocardial Infarction, also thirty healthy individual as control were included

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Publication Date
Mon Jul 31 2017
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Experimental and Numerical Investigation of Hyper Composite Plate Structure Under Thermal and Mechanical Loadings
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Publication Date
Fri Jan 01 2021
Journal Name
Journal Of Engineering
Finite Element Analysis of Cracked One-Way Bubbled Slabs Strengthened By External Prestressed Strands
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Bubbled slabs can be exposed to damage or deterioration during its life. Therefore, the solution for strengthening must be provided. For the simulation of this case, the analysis of finite elements was carried out using ABAQUS 2017 software on six simply supported specimens, during which five are voided with 88 bubbles, and the other is solid. The slab specimens with symmetric boundary conditions were of dimensions 3200/570/150 mm. The solid slab and one bubbled slab are deemed references. Each of the other slabs was exposed to; (1) service charge, then unloaded (2) external prestressing and (3) loading to collapse under two line load. The external strengthening was applied using prestressed wire with four approaches, wh

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Publication Date
Fri Dec 29 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Structure and Optical Properties of BhSe3 Thin Films Prepared by Chemical Bath Deposition Method
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Thin films of  BhSe3  have being deposited on glass substrates of

about 80 - 172 ± 14 nm thickness from an aqueous solution bath at temperature 293 K for period 0.5 to 6.0 hours  using alchemical bath deposition method .

The  films  are  characterized   by  X-ray  diffraction,     X-ray

florescent techniques and optical transmittance spectra measurements in the rang 350 - 400 nm at 293 K. And shows that as deposited  films are amorphous and a  transition to polycrystalline state has taken place after  annealing  them  at  373  K,  for  30  minutes,  But  they  will  be dan1aged

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Publication Date
Mon Jan 30 2023
Journal Name
Iraqi Journal Of Science
Diagnostic Efficiency of Heat Shocked Protoscoleces Extract Antigens for Human Cystic Echinococcosis by ELISA
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      Diagnosis of cystic echinococcosis is complex and has to be confirmed by the combination of immunological tests and imaging techniques. In this study heat shock proteins were induced and their immunoreactivity was assessed by ELISA.

Sera were collected from 34 hydatid patients who were admitted to the Rizgary Teaching Hospital through October 2013 to July 2017, in addition to 29 healthy donors and 18 non-hydatid cases. For heat shock response, two batches of 25000 protoscoleces (Ps) were incubated separately at 42°C and 45 °C for 4 hours. Heat treated and normal Ps were disrupted and the extracts were divided into two parts. One part was directly used as source of antigens (PE, PE42 and PE45) and the other one was par

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Publication Date
Wed May 17 2017
Journal Name
Ibn Al-haitham Journal For Pure And Applied Sciences
Sensitivity of Bacteria Escherichia coli Iisolated from Urinary Tract Infection toward Ciprofloxacin and Lomefloxacin.
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   Four hundred and fifty urine samples were collected from patients suffering from urinary tract infection from the General Azadi hospital in Kurkuk province ,during the period of october 2007 till march 2008 .       Results of bacteriological culture revealed that (168) out of (450) studied samples (37.3%) gave positive culture using blood agar and macConkey agar ; different species of bacterial isolates were detected using morphological and biochemical tests ,from these isolates the highest percentage of the isolates were from Escherichia coli when it was (100) isolates out of (190) isolate  (52.63%)  .  one hundred isolates were distributed between (77) from females and (23) from

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Publication Date
Sun Dec 04 2016
Journal Name
Baghdad Science Journal
Extraction of Iraqi Jasminumsambac (L.)Oil and Study It?s Effect as Antioxidant Agents
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Key words:Jasminumsambac, Volatile oil, Antioxidant.

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